ARM: Refining Multivariate Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal-Contextual Learning

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Unlock Predictable Scaling from Emergent Abilities

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

ConPET: Continual Parameter-Efficient Tuning for Large Language Models

Continual learning necessitates the continual adaptation of models to newly emerging tasks while minimizing the catastrophic forgetting of old ones. This is extremely challenging for large language models (LLMs) with vanilla full-parameter tuning due to high computation costs, memory consumption, and forgetting issue. Inspired by the success of parameter-efficient tuning (PET), we propose Continual Parameter-Efficient Tuning (ConPET), a generalizable paradigm for continual task adaptation of LLMs with task-number-independent training complexity. ConPET includes two versions with different application scenarios. First, Static ConPET can adapt former continual learning methods originally designed for relatively smaller models to LLMs through PET and a dynamic replay strategy, which largely reduces the tuning costs and alleviates the over-fitting and forgetting issue. Furthermore, to maintain scalability, Dynamic ConPET adopts separate PET modules for different tasks and a PET module selector for dynamic optimal selection. In our extensive experiments, the adaptation of Static ConPET helps multiple former methods reduce the scale of tunable parameters by over 3,000 times and surpass the PET-only baseline by at least 5 points on five smaller benchmarks, while Dynamic ConPET gains its advantage on the largest dataset. The codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/Raincleared-Song/ConPET.

QASnowball: An Iterative Bootstrapping Framework for High-Quality Question-Answering Data Generation

Recent years have witnessed the success of question answering (QA), especially its potential to be a foundation paradigm for tackling diverse NLP tasks. However, obtaining sufficient data to build an effective and stable QA system still remains an open problem. For this problem, we introduce an iterative bootstrapping framework for QA data augmentation (named QASnowball), which can iteratively generate large-scale high-quality QA data based on a seed set of supervised examples. Specifically, QASnowball consists of three modules, an answer extractor to extract core phrases in unlabeled documents as candidate answers, a question generator to generate questions based on documents and candidate answers, and a QA data filter to filter out high-quality QA data. Moreover, QASnowball can be self-enhanced by reseeding the seed set to fine-tune itself in different iterations, leading to continual improvements in the generation quality. We conduct experiments in the high-resource English scenario and the medium-resource Chinese scenario, and the experimental results show that the data generated by QASnowball can facilitate QA models: (1) training models on the generated data achieves comparable results to using supervised data, and (2) pre-training on the generated data and fine-tuning on supervised data can achieve better performance. Our code and generated data will be released to advance further work.

EnsembleFollower: A Hybrid Car-Following Framework Based On Reinforcement Learning and Hierarchical Planning

Car-following models have made significant contributions to our understanding of longitudinal driving behavior. However, they often exhibit limited accuracy and flexibility, as they cannot fully capture the complexity inherent in car-following processes, or may falter in unseen scenarios due to their reliance on confined driving skills present in training data. It is worth noting that each car-following model possesses its own strengths and weaknesses depending on specific driving scenarios. Therefore, we propose EnsembleFollower, a hierarchical planning framework for achieving advanced human-like car-following. The EnsembleFollower framework involves a high-level Reinforcement Learning-based agent responsible for judiciously managing multiple low-level car-following models according to the current state, either by selecting an appropriate low-level model to perform an action or by allocating different weights across all low-level components. Moreover, we propose a jerk-constrained kinematic model for more convincing car-following simulations. We evaluate the proposed method based on real-world driving data from the HighD dataset. The experimental results illustrate that EnsembleFollower yields improved accuracy of human-like behavior and achieves effectiveness in combining hybrid models, demonstrating that our proposed framework can handle diverse car-following conditions by leveraging the strengths of various low-level models.

Large Multilingual Models Pivot Zero-Shot Multimodal Learning across Languages

Recently there has been a significant surge in multimodal learning in terms of both image-to-text and text-to-image generation. However, the success is typically limited to English, leaving other languages largely behind. Building a competitive counterpart in other languages is highly challenging due to the low-resource nature of non-English multimodal data (i.e., lack of large-scale, high-quality image-text data). In this work, we propose MPM, an effective training paradigm for training large multimodal models in low-resource languages. MPM demonstrates that Multilingual language models can Pivot zero-shot Multimodal learning across languages. Specifically, based on a strong multilingual large language model, multimodal models pretrained on English-only image-text data can well generalize to other languages in a zero-shot manner for both image-to-text and text-to-image generation, even surpassing models trained on image-text data in native languages. Taking Chinese as a practice of MPM, we build large multimodal models VisCPM in image-to-text and text-to-image generation, which achieve state-of-the-art (open-source) performance in Chinese. To facilitate future research, we open-source codes and model weights at https://github.com/OpenBMB/VisCPM.git.

"Guinea Pig Trials" Utilizing GPT: A Novel Smart Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Studying Firm Competition and Collusion

Firm competition and collusion involve complex dynamics, particularly when considering communication among firms. Such issues can be modeled as problems of complex systems, traditionally approached through experiments involving human subjects or agent-based modeling methods. We propose an innovative framework called Smart Agent-Based Modeling (SABM), wherein smart agents, supported by GPT-4 technologies, represent firms, and interact with one another. We conducted a controlled experiment to study firm price competition and collusion behaviors under various conditions. SABM is more cost-effective and flexible compared to conducting experiments with human subjects. Smart agents possess an extensive knowledge base for decision-making and exhibit human-like strategic abilities, surpassing traditional ABM agents. Furthermore, smart agents can simulate human conversation and be personalized, making them ideal for studying complex situations involving communication. Our results demonstrate that, in the absence of communication, smart agents consistently reach tacit collusion, leading to prices converging at levels higher than the Bertrand equilibrium price but lower than monopoly or cartel prices. When communication is allowed, smart agents achieve a higher-level collusion with prices close to cartel prices. Collusion forms more quickly with communication, while price convergence is smoother without it. These results indicate that communication enhances trust between firms, encouraging frequent small price deviations to explore opportunities for a higher-level win-win situation and reducing the likelihood of triggering a price war. We also assigned different personas to firms to analyze behavioral differences and tested variant models under diverse market structures. The findings showcase the effectiveness and robustness of SABM and provide intriguing insights into competition and collusion.

CPET: Effective Parameter-Efficient Tuning for Compressed Large Language Models

Parameter-efficient tuning (PET) has been widely explored in recent years because it tunes much fewer parameters (PET modules) than full-parameter fine-tuning (FT) while still stimulating sufficient knowledge from large language models (LLMs) for downstream tasks. Moreover, when PET is employed to serve multiple tasks, different task-specific PET modules can be built on a frozen LLM, avoiding redundant LLM deployments. Although PET significantly reduces the cost of tuning and deploying LLMs, its inference still suffers from the computational bottleneck of LLMs. To address the above issue, we propose an effective PET framework based on compressed LLMs, named "CPET". In CPET, we evaluate the impact of mainstream LLM compression techniques on PET performance and then introduce knowledge inheritance and recovery strategies to restore the knowledge loss caused by these compression techniques. Our experimental results demonstrate that, owing to the restoring strategies of CPET, collaborating task-specific PET modules with a compressed LLM can achieve comparable performance to collaborating PET modules with the original version of the compressed LLM and outperform directly applying vanilla PET methods to the compressed LLM.

Sampling-based Fast Gradient Rescaling Method for Highly Transferable Adversarial Attacks

Deep neural networks are known to be vulnerable to adversarial examples crafted by adding human-imperceptible perturbations to the benign input. After achieving nearly 100% attack success rates in white-box setting, more focus is shifted to black-box attacks, of which the transferability of adversarial examples has gained significant attention. In either case, the common gradient-based methods generally use the sign function to generate perturbations on the gradient update, that offers a roughly correct direction and has gained great success. But little work pays attention to its possible limitation. In this work, we observe that the deviation between the original gradient and the generated noise may lead to inaccurate gradient update estimation and suboptimal solutions for adversarial transferability. To this end, we propose a Sampling-based Fast Gradient Rescaling Method (S-FGRM). Specifically, we use data rescaling to substitute the sign function without extra computational cost. We further propose a Depth First Sampling method to eliminate the fluctuation of rescaling and stabilize the gradient update. Our method could be used in any gradient-based attacks and is extensible to be integrated with various input transformation or ensemble methods to further improve the adversarial transferability. Extensive experiments on the standard ImageNet dataset show that our method could significantly boost the transferability of gradient-based attacks and outperform the state-of-the-art baselines.

PersonaPKT: Building Personalized Dialogue Agents via Parameter-efficient Knowledge Transfer

Personalized dialogue agents (DAs) powered by large pre-trained language models (PLMs) often rely on explicit persona descriptions to maintain personality consistency. However, such descriptions may not always be available or may pose privacy concerns. To tackle this bottleneck, we introduce PersonaPKT, a lightweight transfer learning approach that can build persona-consistent dialogue models without explicit persona descriptions. By representing each persona as a continuous vector, PersonaPKT learns implicit persona-specific features directly from a small number of dialogue samples produced by the same persona, adding less than 0.1% trainable parameters for each persona on top of the PLM backbone. Empirical results demonstrate that PersonaPKT effectively builds personalized DAs with high storage efficiency, outperforming various baselines in terms of persona consistency while maintaining good response generation quality. In addition, it enhances privacy protection by avoiding explicit persona descriptions. Overall, PersonaPKT is an effective solution for creating personalized DAs that respect user privacy.