DiffPLF: A Conditional Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Forecasting of EV Charging Load

Due to the vast electric vehicle (EV) penetration to distribution grid, charging load forecasting is essential to promote charging station operation and demand-side management.However, the stochastic charging behaviors and associated exogenous factors render future charging load patterns quite volatile and hard to predict. Accordingly, we devise a novel Diffusion model termed DiffPLF for Probabilistic Load Forecasting of EV charging, which can explicitly approximate the predictive load distribution conditioned on historical data and related covariates. Specifically, we leverage a denoising diffusion model, which can progressively convert the Gaussian prior to real time-series data by learning a reversal of the diffusion process. Besides, we couple such diffusion model with a cross-attention-based conditioning mechanism to execute conditional generation for possible charging demand profiles. We also propose a task-informed fine-tuning technique to better adapt DiffPLF to the probabilistic time-series forecasting task and acquire more accurate and reliable predicted intervals. Finally, we conduct multiple experiments to validate the superiority of DiffPLF to predict complex temporal patterns of erratic charging load and carry out controllable generation based on certain covariate. Results demonstrate that we can attain a notable rise of 39.58% and 49.87% on MAE and CRPS respectively compared to the conventional method.

Dynamic Sparse Learning: A Novel Paradigm for Efficient Recommendation

In the realm of deep learning-based recommendation systems, the increasing computational demands, driven by the growing number of users and items, pose a significant challenge to practical deployment. This challenge is primarily twofold: reducing the model size while effectively learning user and item representations for efficient recommendations. Despite considerable advancements in model compression and architecture search, prevalent approaches face notable constraints. These include substantial additional computational costs from pre-training/re-training in model compression and an extensive search space in architecture design. Additionally, managing complexity and adhering to memory constraints is problematic, especially in scenarios with strict time or space limitations. Addressing these issues, this paper introduces a novel learning paradigm, Dynamic Sparse Learning (DSL), tailored for recommendation models. DSL innovatively trains a lightweight sparse model from scratch, periodically evaluating and dynamically adjusting each weight's significance and the model's sparsity distribution during the training. This approach ensures a consistent and minimal parameter budget throughout the full learning lifecycle, paving the way for "end-to-end" efficiency from training to inference. Our extensive experimental results underline DSL's effectiveness, significantly reducing training and inference costs while delivering comparable recommendation performance.

The Bigger the Better? Rethinking the Effective Model Scale in Long-term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, distinguished by its focus on extensive input sequences, in contrast to the constrained lengths typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences inherently convey richer information, potentially enhancing predictive precision, prevailing techniques often respond by escalating model complexity. These intricate models can inflate into millions of parameters, incorporating parameter-intensive elements like positional encodings, feed-forward networks and self-attention mechanisms. This complexity, however, leads to prohibitive model scale, particularly given the time series data's semantic simplicity. Motivated by the pursuit of parsimony, our research employs conditional correlation and auto-correlation as investigative tools, revealing significant redundancies within the input data. Leveraging these insights, we introduce the HDformer, a lightweight Transformer variant enhanced with hierarchical decomposition. This novel architecture not only inverts the prevailing trend toward model expansion but also accomplishes precise forecasting with drastically fewer computations and parameters. Remarkably, HDformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art LTSF models, while requiring over 99\% fewer parameters. Through this work, we advocate a paradigm shift in LTSF, emphasizing the importance to tailor the model to the inherent dynamics of time series data-a timely reminder that in the realm of LTSF, bigger is not invariably better.

Towards Urban General Intelligence: A Review and Outlook of Urban Foundation Models

Machine learning techniques are now integral to the advancement of intelligent urban services, playing a crucial role in elevating the efficiency, sustainability, and livability of urban environments. The recent emergence of foundation models such as ChatGPT marks a revolutionary shift in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Their unparalleled capabilities in contextual understanding, problem solving, and adaptability across a wide range of tasks suggest that integrating these models into urban domains could have a transformative impact on the development of smart cities. Despite growing interest in Urban Foundation Models~(UFMs), this burgeoning field faces challenges such as a lack of clear definitions, systematic reviews, and universalizable solutions. To this end, this paper first introduces the concept of UFM and discusses the unique challenges involved in building them. We then propose a data-centric taxonomy that categorizes current UFM-related works, based on urban data modalities and types. Furthermore, to foster advancement in this field, we present a promising framework aimed at the prospective realization of UFMs, designed to overcome the identified challenges. Additionally, we explore the application landscape of UFMs, detailing their potential impact in various urban contexts. Relevant papers and open-source resources have been collated and are continuously updated at https://github.com/usail-hkust/Awesome-Urban-Foundation-Models.

GPS: Graph Contrastive Learning via Multi-scale Augmented Views from Adversarial Pooling

Self-supervised graph representation learning has recently shown considerable promise in a range of fields, including bioinformatics and social networks. A large number of graph contrastive learning approaches have shown promising performance for representation learning on graphs, which train models by maximizing agreement between original graphs and their augmented views (i.e., positive views). Unfortunately, these methods usually involve pre-defined augmentation strategies based on the knowledge of human experts. Moreover, these strategies may fail to generate challenging positive views to provide sufficient supervision signals. In this paper, we present a novel approach named Graph Pooling ContraSt (GPS) to address these issues. Motivated by the fact that graph pooling can adaptively coarsen the graph with the removal of redundancy, we rethink graph pooling and leverage it to automatically generate multi-scale positive views with varying emphasis on providing challenging positives and preserving semantics, i.e., strongly-augmented view and weakly-augmented view. Then, we incorporate both views into a joint contrastive learning framework with similarity learning and consistency learning, where our pooling module is adversarially trained with respect to the encoder for adversarial robustness. Experiments on twelve datasets on both graph classification and transfer learning tasks verify the superiority of the proposed method over its counterparts.

BayesPrompt: Prompting Large-Scale Pre-Trained Language Models on Few-shot Inference via Debiased Domain Abstraction

As a novel and effective fine-tuning paradigm based on large-scale pre-trained language models (PLMs), prompt-tuning aims to reduce the gap between downstream tasks and pre-training objectives. While prompt-tuning has yielded continuous advancements in various tasks, such an approach still remains a persistent defect: prompt-tuning methods fail to generalize to specific few-shot patterns. From the perspective of distribution analyses, we disclose that the intrinsic issues behind the phenomenon are the over-multitudinous conceptual knowledge contained in PLMs and the abridged knowledge for target downstream domains, which jointly result in that PLMs mis-locate the knowledge distributions corresponding to the target domains in the universal knowledge embedding space. To this end, we intuitively explore to approximate the unabridged target domains of downstream tasks in a debiased manner, and then abstract such domains to generate discriminative prompts, thereby providing the de-ambiguous guidance for PLMs. Guided by such an intuition, we propose a simple yet effective approach, namely BayesPrompt, to learn prompts that contain the domain discriminative information against the interference from domain-irrelevant knowledge. BayesPrompt primitively leverages known distributions to approximate the debiased factual distributions of target domains and further uniformly samples certain representative features from the approximated distributions to generate the ultimate prompts for PLMs. We provide theoretical insights with the connection to domain adaptation. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmarks.

Large Language Models as Traffic Signal Control Agents: Capacity and Opportunity

Traffic signal control is crucial for optimizing the efficiency of road network by regulating traffic light phases. Existing research predominantly focuses on heuristic or reinforcement learning (RL)-based methods, which often lack transferability across diverse traffic scenarios and suffer from poor interpretability. This paper introduces a novel approach, LLMLight, utilizing large language models (LLMs) for traffic signal control tasks. By leveraging LLMs' impressive generalization and zero-shot reasoning capabilities, LLMLight executes a human-like decision-making process for efficient traffic management. Specifically, the framework begins by composing task descriptions, current traffic conditions, and prior knowledge into a prompt. Subsequently, we utilize LLM's chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning ability to identify the next traffic signal phase, ensuring optimal efficiency in the road network. LLMLight achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) or competitive results across five real-world traffic datasets. Notably, LLMLight showcases remarkable generalization, interpretability, and zero-shot reasoning abilities, even without any training for transportation management tasks. Our project is available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/LLMTSCS.

A Survey of Reasoning with Foundation Models

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

Large Language Models are Not Stable Recommender Systems

With the significant successes of large language models (LLMs) in many natural language processing tasks, there is growing interest among researchers in exploring LLMs for novel recommender systems. However, we have observed that directly using LLMs as a recommender system is usually unstable due to its inherent position bias. To this end, we introduce exploratory research and find consistent patterns of positional bias in LLMs that influence the performance of recommendation across a range of scenarios. Then, we propose a Bayesian probabilistic framework, STELLA (Stable LLM for Recommendation), which involves a two-stage pipeline. During the first probing stage, we identify patterns in a transition matrix using a probing detection dataset. And in the second recommendation stage, a Bayesian strategy is employed to adjust the biased output of LLMs with an entropy indicator. Therefore, our framework can capitalize on existing pattern information to calibrate instability of LLMs, and enhance recommendation performance. Finally, extensive experiments clearly validate the effectiveness of our framework.