TimeGPT in Load Forecasting: A Large Time Series Model Perspective

Machine learning models have made significant progress in load forecasting, but their forecast accuracy is limited in cases where historical load data is scarce. Inspired by the outstanding performance of large language models (LLMs) in computer vision and natural language processing, this paper aims to discuss the potential of large time series models in load forecasting with scarce historical data. Specifically, the large time series model is constructed as a time series generative pre-trained transformer (TimeGPT), which is trained on massive and diverse time series datasets consisting of 100 billion data points (e.g., finance, transportation, banking, web traffic, weather, energy, healthcare, etc.). Then, the scarce historical load data is used to fine-tune the TimeGPT, which helps it to adapt to the data distribution and characteristics associated with load forecasting. Simulation results show that TimeGPT outperforms the benchmarks (e.g., popular machine learning models and statistical models) for load forecasting on several real datasets with scarce training samples, particularly for short look-ahead times. However, it cannot be guaranteed that TimeGPT is always superior to benchmarks for load forecasting with scarce data, since the performance of TimeGPT may be affected by the distribution differences between the load data and the training data. In practical applications, we can divide the historical data into a training set and a validation set, and then use the validation set loss to decide whether TimeGPT is the best choice for a specific dataset.

PeriodicLoRA: Breaking the Low-Rank Bottleneck in LoRA Optimization

Supervised fine-tuning is the most common method to adapt large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, but full fine-tuning LLMs requires massive computational resources. Recently, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods have been widely studied due to its cost-effectiveness. LoRA is one of the most widely used methods, which assumes that the optimization process is essentially low-dimensional. Although LoRA fine-tuning is effective, there is still a performance gap compared to full fine-tuning, since its weight update is limited to low-rank matrices. In order to break the low-rank bottleneck in LoRA Optimization, we propose PeriodicLoRA (PLoRA), which accumulates low-rank update matrices multiple times to achieve a higher update rank. PLoRA has multiple training stages. During each stage, we still update only the LoRA weights. However, at the end of each stage, we unload the LoRA weights into the backbone parameters and then reinitialize the LoRA states. Experimental results show that PLoRA has stronger learning ability, approximately 1.8 times that of LoRA's learning ability at most, but it does not increase memory usage. Further, we introduce a momentum-based unloading strategy for PLoRA to mitigate the training instability.

Unlocking Efficiency in Large Language Model Inference: A Comprehensive Survey of Speculative Decoding

To mitigate the high inference latency stemming from autoregressive decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs), Speculative Decoding has emerged as a novel decoding paradigm for LLM inference. In each decoding step, this method first efficiently drafts several future tokens and then verifies them in parallel. Unlike autoregressive decoding, Speculative Decoding facilitates the simultaneous decoding of multiple tokens per step, thereby accelerating inference. This paper presents a comprehensive overview and analysis of this promising decoding paradigm. We begin by providing a formal definition and formulation of Speculative Decoding. Then, we organize in-depth discussions on its key facets, including current leading techniques, the challenges faced, and potential future directions in this field. We aim for this work to serve as a catalyst for further research on Speculative Decoding, ultimately contributing to more efficient LLM inference.

Improving the Accuracy and Interpretability of Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are receiving increasing attention in wind power forecasting due to their ability to effectively capture complex patterns in wind data. However, their forecasted errors are severely limited by the local optimal weight issue in optimization algorithms, and their forecasted behavior also lacks interpretability. To address these two challenges, this paper firstly proposes simple but effective triple optimization strategies (TriOpts) to accelerate the training process and improve the model performance of DNNs in wind power forecasting. Then, permutation feature importance (PFI) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) techniques are innovatively presented to interpret forecasted behaviors of DNNs, from global and instance perspectives. Simulation results show that the proposed TriOpts not only drastically improve the model generalization of DNNs for both the deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting, but also accelerate the training process. Besides, the proposed PFI and LIME techniques can accurately estimate the contribution of each feature to wind power forecasting, which helps to construct feature engineering and understand how to obtain forecasted values for a given sample.

On the Opportunities of Green Computing: A Survey

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has achieved significant advancements in technology and research with the development over several decades, and is widely used in many areas including computing vision, natural language processing, time-series analysis, speech synthesis, etc. During the age of deep learning, especially with the arise of Large Language Models, a large majority of researchers' attention is paid on pursuing new state-of-the-art (SOTA) results, resulting in ever increasing of model size and computational complexity. The needs for high computing power brings higher carbon emission and undermines research fairness by preventing small or medium-sized research institutions and companies with limited funding in participating in research. To tackle the challenges of computing resources and environmental impact of AI, Green Computing has become a hot research topic. In this survey, we give a systematic overview of the technologies used in Green Computing. We propose the framework of Green Computing and devide it into four key components: (1) Measures of Greenness, (2) Energy-Efficient AI, (3) Energy-Efficient Computing Systems and (4) AI Use Cases for Sustainability. For each components, we discuss the research progress made and the commonly used techniques to optimize the AI efficiency. We conclude that this new research direction has the potential to address the conflicts between resource constraints and AI development. We encourage more researchers to put attention on this direction and make AI more environmental friendly.

An Explainable Framework for Machine learning-Based Reactive Power Optimization of Distribution Network

To reduce the heavy computational burden of reactive power optimization of distribution networks, machine learning models are receiving increasing attention. However, most machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) are usually considered as black boxes, making it challenging for power system operators to identify and comprehend potential biases or errors in the decision-making process of machine learning models. To address this issue, an explainable machine-learning framework is proposed to optimize the reactive power in distribution networks. Firstly, a Shapley additive explanation framework is presented to measure the contribution of each input feature to the solution of reactive power optimizations generated from machine learning models. Secondly, a model-agnostic approximation method is developed to estimate Shapley values, so as to avoid the heavy computational burden associated with direct calculations of Shapley values. The simulation results show that the proposed explainable framework can accurately explain the solution of the machine learning model-based reactive power optimization by using visual analytics, from both global and instance perspectives. Moreover, the proposed explainable framework is model-agnostic, and thus applicable to various models (e.g., neural networks).

Explainable Modeling for Wind Power Forecasting: A Glass-Box Approach with Exceptional Accuracy

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box approach that combines exceptional accuracy with transparency for wind power forecasting. Specifically, advanced artificial intelligence methods (e.g., gradient boosting) are innovatively employed to create shape functions within the forecasting model. These functions effectively map the intricate non-linear relationships between wind power output and input features. Furthermore, the forecasting model is enriched by incorporating interaction terms that adeptly capture interdependencies and synergies among the input features. Simulation results show that the proposed glass-box approach effectively interprets the results of wind power forecasting from both global and instance perspectives. Besides, it outperforms most benchmark models and exhibits comparable performance to the best-performing neural networks. This dual strength of transparency and high accuracy positions the proposed glass-box approach as a compelling choice for reliable wind power forecasting.

Not All Demonstration Examples are Equally Beneficial: Reweighting Demonstration Examples for In-Context Learning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently gained the In-Context Learning (ICL) ability with the models scaling up, allowing them to quickly adapt to downstream tasks with only a few demonstration examples prepended in the input sequence. Nonetheless, the current practice of ICL treats all demonstration examples equally, which still warrants improvement, as the quality of examples is usually uneven. In this paper, we investigate how to determine approximately optimal weights for demonstration examples and how to apply them during ICL. To assess the quality of weights in the absence of additional validation data, we design a masked self-prediction (MSP) score that exhibits a strong correlation with the final ICL performance. To expedite the weight-searching process, we discretize the continuous weight space and adopt beam search. With approximately optimal weights obtained, we further propose two strategies to apply them to demonstrations at different model positions. Experimental results on 8 text classification tasks show that our approach outperforms conventional ICL by a large margin. Our code are publicly available at https:github.com/Zhe-Young/WICL.