The Fine Line: Navigating Large Language Model Pretraining with Down-streaming Capability Analysis

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

Recent Advances, Applications, and Open Challenges in Machine Learning for Health: Reflections from Research Roundtables at ML4H 2023 Symposium

The third ML4H symposium was held in person on December 10, 2023, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. The symposium included research roundtable sessions to foster discussions between participants and senior researchers on timely and relevant topics for the \ac{ML4H} community. Encouraged by the successful virtual roundtables in the previous year, we organized eleven in-person roundtables and four virtual roundtables at ML4H 2022. The organization of the research roundtables at the conference involved 17 Senior Chairs and 19 Junior Chairs across 11 tables. Each roundtable session included invited senior chairs (with substantial experience in the field), junior chairs (responsible for facilitating the discussion), and attendees from diverse backgrounds with interest in the session's topic. Herein we detail the organization process and compile takeaways from these roundtable discussions, including recent advances, applications, and open challenges for each topic. We conclude with a summary and lessons learned across all roundtables. This document serves as a comprehensive review paper, summarizing the recent advancements in machine learning for healthcare as contributed by foremost researchers in the field.

TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Recent studies have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous series can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike prior well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting that either treats all the variables equally or overlooks exogenous information, this paper focuses on a practical setting, which is time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel framework, TimeXer, to utilize external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With a deftly designed embedding layer, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer architecture with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are employed. Moreover, a global endogenous variate token is adopted to effectively bridge the exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer significantly improves time series forecasting with exogenous variables and achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks.

Tokenization Is More Than Compression

Tokenization is a foundational step in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, bridging raw text and language models. Existing tokenization approaches like Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) originate from the field of data compression, and it has been suggested that the effectiveness of BPE stems from its ability to condense text into a relatively small number of tokens. We test the hypothesis that fewer tokens lead to better downstream performance by introducing PathPiece, a new tokenizer that segments a document's text into the minimum number of tokens for a given vocabulary. Through extensive experimentation we find this hypothesis not to be the case, casting doubt on the understanding of the reasons for effective tokenization. To examine which other factors play a role, we evaluate design decisions across all three phases of tokenization: pre-tokenization, vocabulary construction, and segmentation, offering new insights into the design of effective tokenizers. Specifically, we illustrate the importance of pre-tokenization and the benefits of using BPE to initialize vocabulary construction. We train 64 language models with varying tokenization, ranging in size from 350M to 2.4B parameters, all of which are made publicly available.

Timer: Transformers for Time Series Analysis at Scale

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

A Literature Review on Fetus Brain Motion Correction in MRI

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the latest advancements in fetal motion correction in MRI. We delve into various contemporary methodologies and technological advancements aimed at overcoming these challenges. It includes traditional 3D fetal MRI correction methods like Slice to Volume Registration (SVR), deep learning-based techniques such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks, Transformers, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and most recent advancements of Diffusion Models. The insights derived from this literature review reflect a thorough understanding of both the technical intricacies and practical implications of fetal motion in MRI studies, offering a reasoned perspective on potential solutions and future improvements in this field.

SciMMIR: Benchmarking Scientific Multi-modal Information Retrieval

Multi-modal information retrieval (MMIR) is a rapidly evolving field, where significant progress, particularly in image-text pairing, has been made through advanced representation learning and cross-modality alignment research. However, current benchmarks for evaluating MMIR performance in image-text pairing within the scientific domain show a notable gap, where chart and table images described in scholarly language usually do not play a significant role. To bridge this gap, we develop a specialised scientific MMIR (SciMMIR) benchmark by leveraging open-access paper collections to extract data relevant to the scientific domain. This benchmark comprises 530K meticulously curated image-text pairs, extracted from figures and tables with detailed captions in scientific documents. We further annotate the image-text pairs with two-level subset-subcategory hierarchy annotations to facilitate a more comprehensive evaluation of the baselines. We conducted zero-shot and fine-tuning evaluations on prominent multi-modal image-captioning and visual language models, such as CLIP and BLIP. Our analysis offers critical insights for MMIR in the scientific domain, including the impact of pre-training and fine-tuning settings and the influence of the visual and textual encoders. All our data and checkpoints are publicly available at https://github.com/Wusiwei0410/SciMMIR.

CMMMU: A Chinese Massive Multi-discipline Multimodal Understanding Benchmark

As the capabilities of large multimodal models (LMMs) continue to advance, evaluating the performance of LMMs emerges as an increasing need. Additionally, there is an even larger gap in evaluating the advanced knowledge and reasoning abilities of LMMs in non-English contexts such as Chinese. We introduce CMMMU, a new Chinese Massive Multi-discipline Multimodal Understanding benchmark designed to evaluate LMMs on tasks demanding college-level subject knowledge and deliberate reasoning in a Chinese context. CMMMU is inspired by and strictly follows the annotation and analysis pattern of MMMU. CMMMU includes 12k manually collected multimodal questions from college exams, quizzes, and textbooks, covering six core disciplines: Art & Design, Business, Science, Health & Medicine, Humanities & Social Science, and Tech & Engineering, like its companion, MMMU. These questions span 30 subjects and comprise 39 highly heterogeneous image types, such as charts, diagrams, maps, tables, music sheets, and chemical structures. CMMMU focuses on complex perception and reasoning with domain-specific knowledge in the Chinese context. We evaluate 11 open-source LLMs and one proprietary GPT-4V(ision). Even GPT-4V only achieves accuracies of 42%, indicating a large space for improvement. CMMMU will boost the community to build the next-generation LMMs towards expert artificial intelligence and promote the democratization of LMMs by providing diverse language contexts.

A Closer Look at AUROC and AUPRC under Class Imbalance

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

The Limits of Fair Medical Imaging AI In The Wild

As artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly approaches human-level performance in medical imaging, it is crucial that it does not exacerbate or propagate healthcare disparities. Prior research has established AI's capacity to infer demographic data from chest X-rays, leading to a key concern: do models using demographic shortcuts have unfair predictions across subpopulations? In this study, we conduct a thorough investigation into the extent to which medical AI utilizes demographic encodings, focusing on potential fairness discrepancies within both in-distribution training sets and external test sets. Our analysis covers three key medical imaging disciplines: radiology, dermatology, and ophthalmology, and incorporates data from six global chest X-ray datasets. We confirm that medical imaging AI leverages demographic shortcuts in disease classification. While correcting shortcuts algorithmically effectively addresses fairness gaps to create "locally optimal" models within the original data distribution, this optimality is not true in new test settings. Surprisingly, we find that models with less encoding of demographic attributes are often most "globally optimal", exhibiting better fairness during model evaluation in new test environments. Our work establishes best practices for medical imaging models which maintain their performance and fairness in deployments beyond their initial training contexts, underscoring critical considerations for AI clinical deployments across populations and sites.