ReasonCast: Agentic Demand Forecasting with Selective Semantic Reasoning

Demand forecasting increasingly requires combining two complementary sources of information: historical sales reveal recurring numerical dynamics, while future promotions, holidays, price changes, and platform interventions provide forward-looking knowledge. Existing text-enhanced forecasting methods often encode such context into generic representations and fuse it uniformly with time-series features, without explicitly distinguishing which semantic effects are forecast-relevant or how they should modify future dynamics. We introduce ReasonCast, a structured semantic intervention framework that translates event knowledge into forecast-specific operations. An agent examines the event context, the no-text forecast, and its uncertainty to determine whether textual reasoning is needed. Rather than injecting free-form text, ReasonCast represents event knowledge through structured fields describing event relevance, demand direction, temporal shape, amplitude, and peak intensity. These fields interact selectively with temporal components of a time-series foundation model. An additive path corrects local trends and temporal shapes, while a multiplicative path captures event-driven level shifts. ReasonCast introduces a forecast-grounded post-training curriculum. Schema SFT establishes semantic fields; semantic-field RL calibrates direction, shape, amplitude, and peak judgments; and forecast-utility RL evaluates semantic interventions through a frozen forecaster, aligning reasoning outputs with marginal forecast improvement. ReasonCast lowers WMAPE by 3.29, 1.25, and 0.47 percentage points on holiday-sensitive categories, mega-sale-sensitive categories, and M5 event windows, respectively. On stable-sales periods, indiscriminate semantic intervention increases WMAPE by 1.68 percentage points, whereas suppressing unnecessary intervention preserves the numerical backbone.

Breaking the Curse of Multilinguality in Many-to-Many Speech-to-Text Translation via a Resource-Aware Mixture of Speech Encoders

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved significant success in speech-to-text translation (S2TT). However, when processing multilingual speech inputs, a single speech encoder shared across all languages suffers from the curse of multilinguality: languages at different resource levels compete for limited representation capacity, leading to strong high-resource performance but substantial degradation on low-resource speech. To address this problem and improve multilingual consistency, we propose MSRT, a novel framework built around a resource-aware Mixture of Speech Encoders (MoSE). MoSE uses an explicit language router to assign each utterance to an appropriate expert encoder. A frozen expert preserves high-resource language capabilities, while a trainable expert adapts to and specializes in medium- and low-resource languages. We further introduce a five-stage curriculum learning strategy that substantially reduces data dependence, requiring only 10 hours of paired S2TT data per language for effective alignment. We conduct extensive experiments on 45 languages, systematically evaluating all $45 \times 44$ translation directions. Our 4B-parameter model achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming substantially larger baselines. Empirical analyses show that MoSE improves high-, medium-, and low-resource languages simultaneously, with the largest gains on low-resource speech, thereby breaking the curse of multilinguality without compromising high-resource performance. To support future multilingual S2TT research, we release our code and models.

Agents' Last Exam

Recent AI systems have achieved strong results on a wide range of benchmarks, yet these gains have not translated into economically meaningful deployment across many professional domains. We argue that this gap is largely an evaluation problem: widely used benchmarks lack sustained performance measurement on real and economically valuable workflows. This paper introduces Agents' Last Exam (ALE), a benchmark designed to evaluate AI agents on long-horizon, economically valuable, real-world tasks with verifiable outcomes. Developed in collaboration with 250+ industry experts, ALE covers non-physical industries defined with reference to O*NET / SOC 2018 (the U.S. federal occupational taxonomy). It is organized around a task taxonomy with 55 subfields grouped into 13 industry clusters covering 1K+ tasks. Current results show that the hardest tier remains far from saturated: across mainstream harness and backbone configurations, the average full pass rate is 2.6%. ALE is designed as a living benchmark: its task pool grows continuously as new workflows and industries are onboarded. More broadly, ALE is intended not merely as another leaderboard, but as an instrument for closing the gap between benchmark success and GDP-relevant impact.

Bandwidth-Efficient and Privacy-Preserving Edge-Cloud Many-to-Many Speech Translation

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant potential for speech-to-text translation (S2TT). However, existing deployment paradigms face critical challenges: pure on-device models suffer from resource constraints, while centralized cloud systems incur severe privacy risks and bandwidth bottlenecks by transmitting raw voice data. Furthermore, most models exhibit English-centric biases, restricting many-to-many translation scaling. In this paper, we propose Edge-cloud Speech Recognition and Translation (ESRT), a privacy-preserving and bandwidth-efficient collaborative edge-cloud MLLM framework. Specifically, we design an edge-cloud split inference architecture that retains a lightweight speech encoder and adapter on the device, transmitting only highly compressed intermediate features to the cloud. This fundamentally prevents voiceprint leakage and reduces bandwidth requirements by up to 10$\times$. To overcome English-centric bottlenecks, we introduce a multi-task weighted curriculum learning strategy with data balancing to ensure robust cross-lingual consistency. Extensive experiments on the FLEURS dataset demonstrate that our models, ESRT-4B and ESRT-12B, achieve state-of-the-art many-to-many S2TT performance across 45 languages ($45 \times 44$ directions). Code and models are released to facilitate reproducible, privacy-aware MLLM S2TT research. The code and models are released at https://github.com/yxduir/esrt.

Are Rationales Necessary and Sufficient? Tuning LLMs for Explainable Misinformation Detection

The rapid spread of misinformation on social media platforms has become a formidable challenge. To mitigate its proliferation, Misinformation Detection (MD) has emerged as a critical research topic. Traditional MD approaches based on small models typically perform binary classification through a black-box process. Recently, the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has enabled explainable MD, where models generate rationales that explain their decisions, thereby enhancing transparency. Existing explainable MD methods primarily focus on crafting sophisticated prompts to elicit rationales from off-the-shelf LLMs. In this work, we propose a pipeline to fine-tune a dedicated LLM specifically for explainable MD. Our pipeline begins by collecting large-scale fact-checked articles, and then uses multiple strong LLMs to produce veracity predictions and rationales. To ensure high-quality training data, we leverage a filtering strategy that selects only the correct instances for fine-tuning. While this pipeline is intuitive and prevalent, our experiments reveal that naive filtering based solely on label correctness is insufficient in practice and suffers from two critical limitations: (1) Coarse-grained labels cause insufficient rationales: Rationales filtered solely based on binary labels are insufficient to adequately support their decisions; (2) Over-verification behavior causes unnecessary rationales: Stronger LLMs tend to exhibit over-verification behavior, producing excessively verbose and unnecessary rationales. To address these issues, we introduce LONSREX, a novel data synthesis pipeline to Locate Necessary and Sufficient Rationales for Explainable MD. Specifically, we propose a metric that quantifies the contribution of each verification step to the final prediction, thereby evaluating its necessity and sufficiency. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of LONSREX.

OpenDeepThink: Parallel Reasoning via Bradley--Terry Aggregation

Test-time compute scaling is a primary axis for improving LLM reasoning. Existing methods primarily scale depth by extending a single reasoning trace. Scaling breadth by sampling multiple candidates in parallel is straightforward, but introduces a selection bottleneck: choosing the best candidate without a ground-truth verifier, since pointwise LLM judging is noisy and biased. To address this, we introduce OpenDeepThink, a population-based test-time compute framework that selects via pairwise Bradley-Terry comparison. Each generation, the LLM judges random pairs of candidates and aggregates votes via Bradley-Terry into a global ranking; top-ranked candidates are preserved and the top three quarters are mutated using the natural-language critiques produced during comparison; the bottom quarter is discarded. OpenDeepThink raises Gemini 3.1 Pro's effective Codeforces Elo by +405 points in eight sequential LLM-call rounds (~27 minutes wall-clock). The pipeline transfers across weaker and stronger models without retuning, and on the multi-domain HLE benchmark, gains appear concentrated in objectively verifiable domains and reverse in subjective ones. We release CF-73, a curated set of 73 expert-rated Codeforces problems with International Grandmaster annotation and 99% local-evaluation agreement against the official verdict.

FrontierSmith: Synthesizing Open-Ended Coding Problems at Scale

Many real-world coding challenges are open-ended and admit no known optimal solution. Yet, recent progress in LLM coding has focused on well-defined tasks such as feature implementation, bug fixing, and competitive programming. Open-ended coding remains a weak spot for LLMs, largely because open-ended training problems are scarce and expensive to construct. Our goal is to synthesize open-ended coding problems at scale to train stronger LLM coders. We introduce FrontierSmith, an automated system for iteratively evolving open-ended problems from existing closed-ended coding tasks. Starting from competitive programming problems, FrontierSmith generates candidate open-ended variants by changing the problems'goals, restricting outputs, and generalizing inputs. It then uses a quantitative idea divergence metric to select problems that elicit genuinely diverse approaches from different solvers. Agents then generate test cases and verifiers for the surviving candidates. On two open-ended coding benchmarks, training on our synthesized data yields substantial gains over the base models: Qwen3.5-9B improves by +8.82 score on FrontierCS and +306.36 (Elo-rating-based performance) on ALE-bench; Qwen3.5-27B improves by +12.12 and +309.12, respectively. The synthesized problems also make agents take more turns and use more tokens, similar to human-curated ones, suggesting that closed-ended seeds can be a practical starting point for long-horizon coding data.

Prefix Teach, Suffix Fade: Local Teachability Collapse in Strong-to-Weak On-Policy Distillation

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student model on its own rollouts using dense feedback from a stronger teacher. Prior literature suggests that, provided teacher feedback is available, supervising the full sequence of response tokens should monotonically improve performance. However, we demonstrate that this assumption sometimes fails to hold in strong-to-weak OPD settings. While later segments of a generated trajectory may still exhibit a non-zero teacher-student advantage, they frequently lack the local contrast that makes dense feedback effective for prioritizing student learning. We term this failure mode local teachability collapse. The resulting principle is straightforward: supervision should concentrate on trajectory regions where the teacher's feedback remains discriminative, rather than uniformly covering the entire response. We operationalize this principle through a trajectory-specific release rule. This rule measures the teacher's margin over the student's top-$K$ candidate set, aggregates this margin across NLTK-tokenized sentence segments, and truncates dense OPD supervision upon detecting a BIC-style downward change point. Experimental results across strong-to-weak distillation tasks using the Qwen3 model family indicate that this release rule consistently outperforms standard full-trajectory OPD across five in-domain benchmarks at various student scales. Furthermore, compared to baseline distillation methods, our approach better preserves model capabilities on out-of-domain task. These results suggest that effective strong-to-weak OPD requires evaluating not only the availability of teacher guidance but also its local utility, ensuring that the generated feedback remains teachable.

Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization

Complex reinforcement learning environments frequently employ multi-task and mixed-reward formulations. In these settings, heterogeneous reward distributions and correlated reward dimensions often destabilize the construction of scalar advantages. To address these challenges, we propose Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization (RDPO), a reward-processing method designed to explicitly target both failure modes. RDPO first utilizes Magnitude-Aware Quantile normalization to stabilize prompt-level advantage allocation across binary, fractional, and continuous rewards. It then applies Mahalanobis whitening within each active reward subspace to mitigate correlation redundancy prior to aggregation. When applied during the post-training of LongCat-Flash, RDPO enhances instruction following, writing quality, and robustness to hard prompts while remaining broadly competitive on reasoning and coding evaluations.

On the Step Length Confounding in LLM Reasoning Data Selection

Large reasoning models have recently demonstrated strong performance on complex tasks that require long chain-of-thought reasoning, through supervised fine-tuning on large-scale and high-quality datasets. To construct such datasets, existing pipelines generate long reasoning data from more capable Large Language Models (LLMs) and apply manually heuristic or naturalness-based selection methods to filter high-quality samples. Despite the proven effectiveness of naturalness-based data selection, which ranks data by the average log probability assigned by LLMs, our analysis shows that, when applied to LLM reasoning datasets, it systematically prefers samples with longer reasoning steps (i.e., more tokens per step) rather than higher-quality ones, a phenomenon we term step length confounding. Through quantitative analysis, we attribute this phenomenon to low-probability first tokens in reasoning steps; longer steps dilute their influence, thereby inflating the average log probabilities. To address this issue, we propose two variant methods: ASLEC-DROP, which drops first-token probabilities when computing average log probability, and ASLEC-CASL, which applies a causal debiasing regression to remove the first tokens' confounding effect. Experiments across four LLMs and five evaluation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in mitigating the step length confounding problem.