Off-Policy Evaluation for Missingness-Aware Policies in MDPs with Rewards Missing Not at Random

In offline Reinforcement Learning, immediate rewards in logged batch data are often unobserved due to sparse or irregular record-keeping, or censored beyond certain reward values. This issue arises in practical settings, including health care and marketing. We investigate off-policy evaluation (OPE) in finite-horizon Markov decision processes when rewards are missing not at random (MNAR), which breaks ignorability and induces selection bias even after conditioning on states and actions. To address this, we formalize a reward-dependent propensity model and use future states as shadow variables to identify the full-data conditional mean reward. We further introduce a bridge function that recovers the conditional mean reward without explicitly modeling the MNAR mechanism, and estimate it via a min-max procedure to avoid double sampling. Building upon these identification results, we propose an Fitted-Q-Evaluation-style estimator that propagates the recovered rewards while allowing target policies to depend on past missingness indicators. Finally, we establish consistency and finite-sample error bounds for our OPE estimator, and show through experiments the strong performance of our method compared to existing methods on simulated and MIMIC-III Sepsis data.

SAIGuard: Communication-State Simulation for Proactive Defense of LLM Multi-Agent Systems

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) solve complex tasks through inter-agent collaboration, but their communication-driven nature also allows security risks to spread across agents and trigger system-wide failures. Existing MAS defenses mainly follow a reactive paradigm after execution by detecting and isolating harmful agents, which may cause irreversible damage and degrade collaborative utility. To address this, we propose a proactive defense framework for MAS security, namely a Simulation-aware Interception Guard (SAIGuard). SAIGuard performs communication-state simulation over the MAS interaction graph, estimates the impact of incoming messages on local agent states and the global MAS state, and detects risky messages via reconstruction deviations from benign communication patterns. Instead of isolating agents, SAIGuard sanitizes or regenerates suspicious messages before it propagation into system. Experiments across diverse topologies and attack scenarios show that SAIGuard reduces attack success rates while maintaining MAS utility, outperforming reactive defenses.

Detecting Unfaithful Chain-of-Thought via Circuit-Guided Internal-External Discrepancy

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning improves the problem-solving ability of large language models (LLMs), but generated reasoning traces may not faithfully reflect the model's actual decision process. Existing CoT unfaithfulness detectors mainly rely on external signals from generated rationales, such as textual plausibility or answer consistency, while overlooking evidence from the model's internal computation. Although recent circuit tracing methods provide a way to obtain model-internal evidence by tracing how information flows through model components during reasoning, constructing full reasoning circuits for long CoTs is costly and difficult to scale. To address these challenges, we propose Circuit-guided Internal-External Discrepancy Scorer (CIE-Scorer), a framework for instance-level CoT unfaithfulness detection. The key idea is that faithful reasoning traces should align with the model's computational process, whereas unfaithful traces may diverge from it. CIE-Scorer efficiently traces compact sentence-level circuits from informative reasoning tokens, constructs internal and external reasoning graphs, and measures their discrepancy using Fused Gromov--Wasserstein distance. Experiments on four datasets from FaithCoT-Bench show that CIE-Scorer achieves state-of-the-art performance while reducing the cost of circuit construction, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining mechanistic interpretability signals with external reasoning traces for CoT unfaithfulness detection.

OPPO: Bayesian Value Recursion for Token-Level Credit Assignment in LLM Reasoning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become the standard recipe for improving LLM reasoning, but the dominant algorithm GRPO assigns a single trajectory-level advantage to every token, diluting the signal at pivotal reasoning steps and injecting noise at uninformative ones. Critic-free alternatives derived from on-policy distillation supply per-token signals through oracle-conditioned likelihood ratios, yet apply each signal in isolation from the trajectory-level evidence accumulated up to that position. We propose Oracle-Prompted Policy Optimization (OPPO), which rests on a single observation: the oracle signal used by prior distillation-style methods for local discrimination is also the natural Bayesian update of the model's belief about eventual success. Accumulating the signal along a trajectory yields, in closed form and at the cost of one extra forward pass, a running estimate of the success probability at every position, together with a token-level advantage that requires no learned value network and no additional rollouts. A first-order analysis factorizes the advantage into the per-token discrimination signal used by distillation methods modulated by a state weight that concentrates credit on genuinely pivotal tokens, with a directional variance-reduction guarantee. The framework admits two estimators differing only in which model scores the evidence: a \textit{self-oracle} that reuses the student and recovers the on-policy distillation reward as a strict special case, and a \textit{teacher-oracle} that delegates scoring to a stronger frozen model. On two base LLMs across seven mathematics, science, and code reasoning benchmarks, OPPO improves over GRPO, DAPO, and SDPO by up to $+6.0$ points on AMC'23 and $+5.2$ points on AIME'24, with gains that widen monotonically with response length.

Are Rationales Necessary and Sufficient? Tuning LLMs for Explainable Misinformation Detection

The rapid spread of misinformation on social media platforms has become a formidable challenge. To mitigate its proliferation, Misinformation Detection (MD) has emerged as a critical research topic. Traditional MD approaches based on small models typically perform binary classification through a black-box process. Recently, the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has enabled explainable MD, where models generate rationales that explain their decisions, thereby enhancing transparency. Existing explainable MD methods primarily focus on crafting sophisticated prompts to elicit rationales from off-the-shelf LLMs. In this work, we propose a pipeline to fine-tune a dedicated LLM specifically for explainable MD. Our pipeline begins by collecting large-scale fact-checked articles, and then uses multiple strong LLMs to produce veracity predictions and rationales. To ensure high-quality training data, we leverage a filtering strategy that selects only the correct instances for fine-tuning. While this pipeline is intuitive and prevalent, our experiments reveal that naive filtering based solely on label correctness is insufficient in practice and suffers from two critical limitations: (1) Coarse-grained labels cause insufficient rationales: Rationales filtered solely based on binary labels are insufficient to adequately support their decisions; (2) Over-verification behavior causes unnecessary rationales: Stronger LLMs tend to exhibit over-verification behavior, producing excessively verbose and unnecessary rationales. To address these issues, we introduce LONSREX, a novel data synthesis pipeline to Locate Necessary and Sufficient Rationales for Explainable MD. Specifically, we propose a metric that quantifies the contribution of each verification step to the final prediction, thereby evaluating its necessity and sufficiency. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of LONSREX.

Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions

Physical activity (PA) plays an important role in maintaining and improving health. Daily steps have been a key PA measure that is easily accessible with common wearable devices. However, methods are lacking to recommend a personalized optimal distribution of daily steps over a period of time for the best of certain health biomarkers. In this paper, we fill this void based on the data from the All of Us Research Program which includes months of step counts as well as repeated measurements of key health biomarkers. We develop a new offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to learn personalized and optimal PA distributions associated with cardiometabolic risk, where the action is a function representing the daily step distribution over a period of time. Simulation studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach over existing continuous-action RL methods. The learned optimal policy from the All of Us data generally suggests people take more daily steps and also follow a more consistent pattern of PA over time while offering tailored recommendations for subgroups in blood glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure, age, and sex.

Backtracking When It Strays: Mitigating Dual Exposure Biases in LLM Reasoning Distillation

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in complex reasoning tasks via long chain-of-thought (CoT), yet their immense computational overhead hinders real-world deployment. LLM reasoning distillation addresses this by transferring reasoning capabilities from formidable teacher models to compact student models. However, existing distillation paradigms face a fundamental dilemma. Typical off-policy distillation strictly utilizes teacher-generated golden trajectories, suffering from an exposure bias due to the mismatch between training distributions and student-generated inference contexts, which leads to error cascades in long CoT reasoning. To address this, on-policy distillation allows students to explore their own trajectories, but we demonstrate that it inherently introduces a reciprocal reversed exposure bias: the teacher model also struggles to provide positive guidance when conditioned on student-generated sub-optimal contexts. To resolve this dual exposure biases problem, we propose Monitoring Trajectories and Backtracking when it strays (MOTAB), a new LLM reasoning distillation pipeline. Specifically, MOTAB dynamically monitors the student's on-policy generation against an adaptive safety boundary. When the generation strays and exceeds this threshold, MOTAB backtracks to the last safe state and leverages teacher intervention to correct the course. This approach inherently tolerates minor student errors to mitigate exposure bias, while preventing sub-optimal contexts to circumvent reversed exposure bias. Extensive experiments on the LIMO-v2 and AceReason datasets demonstrate that MOTAB effectively alleviates the dual exposure biases, yielding a roughly 3% average performance improvement in reasoning tasks.

TOPPO: Rethinking PPO for Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning with Critic Balancing

Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) and its variants dominate Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning (MTRL) due to their off-policy sample efficiency, while on-policy methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) remain underexplored. We diagnose that PPO in MTRL suffers from a previously overlooked issue: critic-side gradient ill-conditioning, which may cause tail tasks to stall while easy tasks dominate the value function's updates. To address this, we propose TOPPO (Tail-Optimized PPO), a reformulation of PPO via Critic Balancing -- a set of modules that improve gradient conditioning and balance learning dynamics across tasks. Unlike prior approaches that rely on modular architectures or large models, TOPPO targets the optimization bottleneck within PPO itself. Empirically, TOPPO achieves stronger mean and tail-task performance than published SAC-family and ARS-family baselines while using substantially fewer parameters and environment steps on Meta-World+ benchmark. Notably, TOPPO matches or surpasses strong SAC baselines early in training and maintains superior performance at full budget. Ablations confirm the effectiveness of each module in TOPPO and provide insights into their interactions. Our results demonstrate that, with proper optimization, on-policy methods can rival or exceed off-policy approaches in MTRL, challenging the prevailing reliance on SAC and highlighting critic-side gradient conditioning as the central bottleneck.

On the Step Length Confounding in LLM Reasoning Data Selection

Large reasoning models have recently demonstrated strong performance on complex tasks that require long chain-of-thought reasoning, through supervised fine-tuning on large-scale and high-quality datasets. To construct such datasets, existing pipelines generate long reasoning data from more capable Large Language Models (LLMs) and apply manually heuristic or naturalness-based selection methods to filter high-quality samples. Despite the proven effectiveness of naturalness-based data selection, which ranks data by the average log probability assigned by LLMs, our analysis shows that, when applied to LLM reasoning datasets, it systematically prefers samples with longer reasoning steps (i.e., more tokens per step) rather than higher-quality ones, a phenomenon we term step length confounding. Through quantitative analysis, we attribute this phenomenon to low-probability first tokens in reasoning steps; longer steps dilute their influence, thereby inflating the average log probabilities. To address this issue, we propose two variant methods: ASLEC-DROP, which drops first-token probabilities when computing average log probability, and ASLEC-CASL, which applies a causal debiasing regression to remove the first tokens' confounding effect. Experiments across four LLMs and five evaluation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in mitigating the step length confounding problem.

ARISE: Agent Reasoning with Intrinsic Skill Evolution in Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

The dominant paradigm for improving mathematical reasoning in language models relies on Reinforcement Learning with verifiable rewards. Yet existing methods treat each problem instance in isolation without leveraging the reusable strategies that emerge and accumulate during training. To this end, we introduce ARISE (Agent Reasoning via Intrinsic Skill Evolution), a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework, in which a shared policy operates both to manage skills at high-level and to generate responses at low-level (denoted as a Skills Manager and a Worker, respectively). The Manager maintains a tiered skill library through a dedicated skill generation rollout that performs structured summarization of successful solution traces (after execution), while employing a policy-driven selection mechanism to retrieve relevant skills to condition future rollouts (before execution). A hierarchical reward design guides the co-evolution of reasoning ability and library quality. Experiments on two base models and seven benchmarks spanning both competition mathematics and Omni-MATH show that ARISE consistently outperforms GRPO-family algorithms and memory-augmented baselines, with particularly notable gains on out-of-distribution tasks. Ablation studies confirm that each component contributes to the observed improvements and that library quality and reasoning performance improve in tandem throughout training. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/Skylanding/ARISE}{https://github.com/Skylanding/ARISE}.