Causal Inference with Complex Treatments: A Survey

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention policies. Traditionally, most of the previous works typically focus on the binary treatment setting that there is only one treatment for a unit to adopt or not. However, in practice, the treatment can be much more complex, encompassing multi-valued, continuous, or bundle options. In this paper, we refer to these as complex treatments and systematically and comprehensively review the causal inference methods for addressing them. First, we formally revisit the problem definition, the basic assumptions, and their possible variations under specific conditions. Second, we sequentially review the related methods for multi-valued, continuous, and bundled treatment settings. In each situation, we tentatively divide the methods into two categories: those conforming to the unconfoundedness assumption and those violating it. Subsequently, we discuss the available datasets and open-source codes. Finally, we provide a brief summary of these works and suggest potential directions for future research.

Proximity Matters: Local Proximity Preserved Balancing for Treatment Effect Estimation

Heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation from observational data poses significant challenges due to treatment selection bias. Existing methods address this bias by minimizing distribution discrepancies between treatment groups in latent space, focusing on global alignment. However, the fruitful aspect of local proximity, where similar units exhibit similar outcomes, is often overlooked. In this study, we propose Proximity-aware Counterfactual Regression (PCR) to exploit proximity for representation balancing within the HTE estimation context. Specifically, we introduce a local proximity preservation regularizer based on optimal transport to depict the local proximity in discrepancy calculation. Furthermore, to overcome the curse of dimensionality that renders the estimation of discrepancy ineffective, exacerbated by limited data availability for HTE estimation, we develop an informative subspace projector, which trades off minimal distance precision for improved sample complexity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PCR accurately matches units across different treatment groups, effectively mitigates treatment selection bias, and significantly outperforms competitors. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/status/ncr-B697.

Debiased Recommendation with Noisy Feedback

Ratings of a user to most items in recommender systems are usually missing not at random (MNAR), largely because users are free to choose which items to rate. To achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data, three typical solutions have been proposed, including error-imputation-based (EIB), inverse-propensity-scoring (IPS), and doubly robust (DR) methods. However, these methods ignore an alternative form of bias caused by the inconsistency between the observed ratings and the users' true preferences, also known as noisy feedback or outcome measurement errors (OME), e.g., due to public opinion or low-quality data collection process. In this work, we study intersectional threats to the unbiased learning of the prediction model from data MNAR and OME in the collected data. First, we design OME-EIB, OME-IPS, and OME-DR estimators, which largely extend the existing estimators to combat OME in real-world recommendation scenarios. Next, we theoretically prove the unbiasedness and generalization bound of the proposed estimators. We further propose an alternate denoising training approach to achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data with OME. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset to show the effectiveness of our proposed approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/KDD24-OME-DR.

Rethinking the Diffusion Models for Numerical Tabular Data Imputation from the Perspective of Wasserstein Gradient Flow

Diffusion models (DMs) have gained attention in Missing Data Imputation (MDI), but there remain two long-neglected issues to be addressed: (1). Inaccurate Imputation, which arises from inherently sample-diversification-pursuing generative process of DMs. (2). Difficult Training, which stems from intricate design required for the mask matrix in model training stage. To address these concerns within the realm of numerical tabular datasets, we introduce a novel principled approach termed Kernelized Negative Entropy-regularized Wasserstein gradient flow Imputation (KnewImp). Specifically, based on Wasserstein gradient flow (WGF) framework, we first prove that issue (1) stems from the cost functionals implicitly maximized in DM-based MDI are equivalent to the MDI's objective plus diversification-promoting non-negative terms. Based on this, we then design a novel cost functional with diversification-discouraging negative entropy and derive our KnewImp approach within WGF framework and reproducing kernel Hilbert space. After that, we prove that the imputation procedure of KnewImp can be derived from another cost functional related to the joint distribution, eliminating the need for the mask matrix and hence naturally addressing issue (2). Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed KnewImp approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.

Beyond Similarity: Personalized Federated Recommendation with Composite Aggregation

Federated recommendation aims to collect global knowledge by aggregating local models from massive devices, to provide recommendations while ensuring privacy. Current methods mainly leverage aggregation functions invented by federated vision community to aggregate parameters from similar clients, e.g., clustering aggregation. Despite considerable performance, we argue that it is suboptimal to apply them to federated recommendation directly. This is mainly reflected in the disparate model architectures. Different from structured parameters like convolutional neural networks in federated vision, federated recommender models usually distinguish itself by employing one-to-one item embedding table. Such a discrepancy induces the challenging embedding skew issue, which continually updates the trained embeddings but ignores the non-trained ones during aggregation, thus failing to predict future items accurately. To this end, we propose a personalized Federated recommendation model with Composite Aggregation (FedCA), which not only aggregates similar clients to enhance trained embeddings, but also aggregates complementary clients to update non-trained embeddings. Besides, we formulate the overall learning process into a unified optimization algorithm to jointly learn the similarity and complementarity. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model. The source codes are available at https://github.com/hongleizhang/FedCA.

On the Maximal Local Disparity of Fairness-Aware Classifiers

Fairness has become a crucial aspect in the development of trustworthy machine learning algorithms. Current fairness metrics to measure the violation of demographic parity have the following drawbacks: (i) the average difference of model predictions on two groups cannot reflect their distribution disparity, and (ii) the overall calculation along all possible predictions conceals the extreme local disparity at or around certain predictions. In this work, we propose a novel fairness metric called Maximal Cumulative ratio Disparity along varying Predictions' neighborhood (MCDP), for measuring the maximal local disparity of the fairness-aware classifiers. To accurately and efficiently calculate the MCDP, we develop a provably exact and an approximate calculation algorithm that greatly reduces the computational complexity with low estimation error. We further propose a bi-level optimization algorithm using a differentiable approximation of the MCDP for improving the algorithmic fairness. Extensive experiments on both tabular and image datasets validate that our fair training algorithm can achieve superior fairness-accuracy trade-offs.

Attaining Human`s Desirable Outcomes in Human-AI Interaction via Structural Causal Games

In human-AI interaction, a prominent goal is to attain human`s desirable outcome with the assistance of AI agents, which can be ideally delineated as a problem of seeking the optimal Nash Equilibrium that matches the human`s desirable outcome. However, reaching the outcome is usually challenging due to the existence of multiple Nash Equilibria that are related to the assisting task but do not correspond to the human`s desirable outcome. To tackle this issue, we employ a theoretical framework called structural causal game (SCG) to formalize the human-AI interactive process. Furthermore, we introduce a strategy referred to as pre-policy intervention on the SCG to steer AI agents towards attaining the human`s desirable outcome. In more detail, a pre-policy is learned as a generalized intervention to guide the agents` policy selection, under a transparent and interpretable procedure determined by the SCG. To make the framework practical, we propose a reinforcement learning-like algorithm to search out this pre-policy. The proposed algorithm is tested in both gridworld environments and realistic dialogue scenarios with large language models, demonstrating its adaptability in a broader class of problems and potential effectiveness in real-world situations.

Explainable Few-shot Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge tracing (KT), aiming to mine students' mastery of knowledge by their exercise records and predict their performance on future test questions, is a critical task in educational assessment. While researchers achieved tremendous success with the rapid development of deep learning techniques, current knowledge tracing tasks fall into the cracks from real-world teaching scenarios. Relying heavily on extensive student data and solely predicting numerical performances differs from the settings where teachers assess students' knowledge state from limited practices and provide explanatory feedback. To fill this gap, we explore a new task formulation: Explainable Few-shot Knowledge Tracing. By leveraging the powerful reasoning and generation abilities of large language models (LLMs), we then propose a cognition-guided framework that can track the student knowledge from a few student records while providing natural language explanations. Experimental results from three widely used datasets show that LLMs can perform comparable or superior to competitive deep knowledge tracing methods. We also discuss potential directions and call for future improvements in relevant topics.

MetaCoCo: A New Few-Shot Classification Benchmark with Spurious Correlation

Out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in few-shot classification (FSC) occur when novel classes sampled from testing distributions differ from base classes drawn from training distributions, which considerably degrades the performance of deep learning models deployed in real-world applications. Recent studies suggest that the OOD problems in FSC mainly including: (a) cross-domain few-shot classification (CD-FSC) and (b) spurious-correlation few-shot classification (SC-FSC). Specifically, CD-FSC occurs when a classifier learns transferring knowledge from base classes drawn from seen training distributions but recognizes novel classes sampled from unseen testing distributions. In contrast, SC-FSC arises when a classifier relies on non-causal features (or contexts) that happen to be correlated with the labels (or concepts) in base classes but such relationships no longer hold during the model deployment. Despite CD-FSC has been extensively studied, SC-FSC remains understudied due to lack of the corresponding evaluation benchmarks. To this end, we present Meta Concept Context (MetaCoCo), a benchmark with spurious-correlation shifts collected from real-world scenarios. Moreover, to quantify the extent of spurious-correlation shifts of the presented MetaCoCo, we further propose a metric by using CLIP as a pre-trained vision-language model. Extensive experiments on the proposed benchmark are performed to evaluate the state-of-the-art methods in FSC, cross-domain shifts, and self-supervised learning. The experimental results show that the performance of the existing methods degrades significantly in the presence of spurious-correlation shifts. We open-source all codes of our benchmark and hope that the proposed MetaCoCo can facilitate future research on spurious-correlation shifts problems in FSC. The code is available at: https://github.com/remiMZ/MetaCoCo-ICLR24.

Debiased Collaborative Filtering with Kernel-Based Causal Balancing

Debiased collaborative filtering aims to learn an unbiased prediction model by removing different biases in observational datasets. To solve this problem, one of the simple and effective methods is based on the propensity score, which adjusts the observational sample distribution to the target one by reweighting observed instances. Ideally, propensity scores should be learned with causal balancing constraints. However, existing methods usually ignore such constraints or implement them with unreasonable approximations, which may affect the accuracy of the learned propensity scores. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we first analyze the gaps between the causal balancing requirements and existing methods such as learning the propensity with cross-entropy loss or manually selecting functions to balance. Inspired by these gaps, we propose to approximate the balancing functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert space and demonstrate that, based on the universal property and representer theorem of kernel functions, the causal balancing constraints can be better satisfied. Meanwhile, we propose an algorithm that adaptively balances the kernel function and theoretically analyze the generalization error bound of our methods. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, and to promote this research direction, we have released our project at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/ICLR24-Kernel-Balancing.