ImplicitRM: Unbiased Reward Modeling from Implicit Preference Data for LLM alignment

Reward modeling represents a long-standing challenge in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning language models. Current reward modeling is heavily contingent upon experimental feedback data with high collection costs. In this work, we study \textit{implicit reward modeling} -- learning reward models from implicit human feedback (e.g., clicks and copies) -- as a cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in implicit reward modeling: (1) Implicit preference data lacks definitive negative samples, which makes standard positive-negative classification methods inapplicable; (2) Implicit preference data suffers from user preference bias, where different responses have different propensities to elicit user feedback actions, which exacerbates the difficulty of distinguishing definitive negative samples. To address these challenges, we propose ImplicitRM, which aims to learn unbiased reward models from implicit preference data. ImplicitRM stratifies training samples into four latent groups via a stratification model. Building on this, it derives a learning objective through likelihood maximization, which we prove is theoretically unbiased, effectively resolving both challenges. Experiments demonstrate that ImplicitRM learns accurate reward models across implicit preference datasets. Code is available on our project website.

Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

CausalRM: Causal-Theoretic Reward Modeling for RLHF from Observational User Feedbacks

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.

Invariant Causal Routing for Governing Social Norms in Online Market Economies

Social norms are stable behavioral patterns that emerge endogenously within economic systems through repeated interactions among agents. In online market economies, such norms -- like fair exposure, sustained participation, and balanced reinvestment -- are critical for long-term stability. We aim to understand the causal mechanisms driving these emergent norms and to design principled interventions that can steer them toward desired outcomes. This is challenging because norms arise from countless micro-level interactions that aggregate into macro-level regularities, making causal attribution and policy transferability difficult. To address this, we propose \textbf{Invariant Causal Routing (ICR)}, a causal governance framework that identifies policy-norm relations stable across heterogeneous environments. ICR integrates counterfactual reasoning with invariant causal discovery to separate genuine causal effects from spurious correlations and to construct interpretable, auditable policy rules that remain effective under distribution shift. In heterogeneous agent simulations calibrated with real data, ICR yields more stable norms, smaller generalization gaps, and more concise rules than correlation or coverage baselines, demonstrating that causal invariance offers a principled and interpretable foundation for governance.

Observationally Informed Adaptive Causal Experimental Design

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent the gold standard for causal inference yet remain a scarce resource. While large-scale observational data is often available, it is utilized only for retrospective fusion, and remains discarded in prospective trial design due to bias concerns. We argue this "tabula rasa" data acquisition strategy is fundamentally inefficient. In this work, we propose Active Residual Learning, a new paradigm that leverages the observational model as a foundational prior. This approach shifts the experimental focus from learning target causal quantities from scratch to efficiently estimating the residuals required to correct observational bias. To operationalize this, we introduce the R-Design framework. Theoretically, we establish two key advantages: (1) a structural efficiency gap, proving that estimating smooth residual contrasts admits strictly faster convergence rates than reconstructing full outcomes; and (2) information efficiency, where we quantify the redundancy in standard parameter-based acquisition (e.g., BALD), demonstrating that such baselines waste budget on task-irrelevant nuisance uncertainty. We propose R-EPIG (Residual Expected Predictive Information Gain), a unified criterion that directly targets the causal estimand, minimizing residual uncertainty for estimation or clarifying decision boundaries for policy. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that R-Design significantly outperforms baselines, confirming that repairing a biased model is far more efficient than learning one from scratch.

ProcMEM: Learning Reusable Procedural Memory from Experience via Non-Parametric PPO for LLM Agents

LLM-driven agents demonstrate strong performance in sequential decision-making but often rely on on-the-fly reasoning, re-deriving solutions even in recurring scenarios. This insufficient experience reuse leads to computational redundancy and execution instability. To bridge this gap, we propose ProcMEM, a framework that enables agents to autonomously learn procedural memory from interaction experiences without parameter updates. By formalizing a Skill-MDP, ProcMEM transforms passive episodic narratives into executable Skills defined by activation, execution, and termination conditions to ensure executability. To achieve reliable reusability without capability degradation, we introduce Non-Parametric PPO, which leverages semantic gradients for high-quality candidate generation and a PPO Gate for robust Skill verification. Through score-based maintenance, ProcMEM sustains compact, high-quality procedural memory. Experimental results across in-domain, cross-task, and cross-agent scenarios demonstrate that ProcMEM achieves superior reuse rates and significant performance gains with extreme memory compression. Visualized evolutionary trajectories and Skill distributions further reveal how ProcMEM transparently accumulates, refines, and reuses procedural knowledge to facilitate long-term autonomy.

Rethinking the Flow-Based Gradual Domain Adaption: A Semi-Dual Optimal Transport Perspective

Gradual domain adaptation (GDA) aims to mitigate domain shift by progressively adapting models from the source domain to the target domain via intermediate domains. However, real intermediate domains are often unavailable or ineffective, necessitating the synthesis of intermediate samples. Flow-based models have recently been used for this purpose by interpolating between source and target distributions; however, their training typically relies on sample-based log-likelihood estimation, which can discard useful information and thus degrade GDA performance. The key to addressing this limitation is constructing the intermediate domains via samples directly. To this end, we propose an Entropy-regularized Semi-dual Unbalanced Optimal Transport (E-SUOT) framework to construct intermediate domains. Specifically, we reformulate flow-based GDA as a Lagrangian dual problem and derive an equivalent semi-dual objective that circumvents the need for likelihood estimation. However, the dual problem leads to an unstable min-max training procedure. To alleviate this issue, we further introduce entropy regularization to convert it into a more stable alternative optimization procedure. Based on this, we propose a novel GDA training framework and provide theoretical analysis in terms of stability and generalization. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the E-SUOT framework.

Analyzing and Improving Diffusion Models for Time-Series Data Imputation: A Proximal Recursion Perspective

Diffusion models (DMs) have shown promise for Time-Series Data Imputation (TSDI); however, their performance remains inconsistent in complex scenarios. We attribute this to two primary obstacles: (1) non-stationary temporal dynamics, which can bias the inference trajectory and lead to outlier-sensitive imputations; and (2) objective inconsistency, since imputation favors accurate pointwise recovery whereas DMs are inherently trained to generate diverse samples. To better understand these issues, we analyze DM-based TSDI process through a proximal-operator perspective and uncover that an implicit Wasserstein distance regularization inherent in the process hinders the model's ability to counteract non-stationarity and dissipative regularizer, thereby amplifying diversity at the expense of fidelity. Building on this insight, we propose a novel framework called SPIRIT (Semi-Proximal Transport Regularized time-series Imputation). Specifically, we introduce entropy-induced Bregman divergence to relax the mass preserving constraint in the Wasserstein distance, formulate the semi-proximal transport (SPT) discrepancy, and theoretically prove the robustness of SPT against non-stationarity. Subsequently, we remove the dissipative structure and derive the complete SPIRIT workflow, with SPT serving as the proximal operator. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SPIRIT approach.

Deep Time-series Forecasting Needs Kernelized Moment Balancing

Deep time-series forecasting can be formulated as a distribution balancing problem aimed at aligning the distribution of the forecasts and ground truths. According to Imbens' criterion, true distribution balance requires matching the first moments with respect to any balancing function. We demonstrate that existing objectives fail to meet this criterion, as they enforce moment matching only for one or two predefined balancing functions, thus failing to achieve full distribution balance. To address this limitation, we propose direct forecasting with kernelized moment balancing (KMB-DF). Unlike existing objectives, KMB-DF adaptively selects the most informative balancing functions from a reproducing kernel hilbert space (RKHS) to enforce sufficient distribution balancing. We derive a tractable and differentiable objective that enables efficient estimation from empirical samples and seamless integration into gradient-based training pipelines. Extensive experiments across multiple models and datasets show that KMB-DF consistently improves forecasting accuracy and achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/KMB-DF-403C.

ThinkTank-ME: A Multi-Expert Framework for Middle East Event Forecasting

Event forecasting is inherently influenced by multifaceted considerations, including international relations, regional historical dynamics, and cultural contexts. However, existing LLM-based approaches employ single-model architectures that generate predictions along a singular explicit trajectory, constraining their ability to capture diverse geopolitical nuances across complex regional contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce ThinkTank-ME, a novel Think Tank framework for Middle East event forecasting that emulates collaborative expert analysis in real-world strategic decision-making. To facilitate expert specialization and rigorous evaluation, we construct POLECAT-FOR-ME, a Middle East-focused event forecasting benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of multi-expert collaboration in handling complex temporal geopolitical forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/ThinkTank-ME.