Causal Sufficiency and Necessity Improves Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting plays an indispensable role in endowing large language models (LLMs) with complex reasoning capabilities. However, CoT currently faces two fundamental challenges: (1) Sufficiency, which ensures that the generated intermediate inference steps comprehensively cover and substantiate the final conclusion; and (2) Necessity, which identifies the inference steps that are truly indispensable for the soundness of the resulting answer. We propose a causal framework that characterizes CoT reasoning through the dual lenses of sufficiency and necessity. Incorporating causal Probability of Sufficiency and Necessity allows us not only to determine which steps are logically sufficient or necessary to the prediction outcome, but also to quantify their actual influence on the final reasoning outcome under different intervention scenarios, thereby enabling the automated addition of missing steps and the pruning of redundant ones. Extensive experimental results on various mathematical and commonsense reasoning benchmarks confirm substantial improvements in reasoning efficiency and reduced token usage without sacrificing accuracy. Our work provides a promising direction for improving LLM reasoning performance and cost-effectiveness.

Large Language Models are Demonstration Pre-Selectors for Themselves

In-context learning (ICL) with large language models (LLMs) delivers strong few-shot performance by choosing few-shot demonstrations from the entire training data. However, existing ICL methods, which rely on similarity or diversity scores to choose demonstrations, incur high computational costs due to repeatedly retrieval from large-scale datasets for each query. To this end, we propose FEEDER (FEw yet Essential Demonstration prE-selectoR), a novel pre-selection framework that identifies a representative subset of demonstrations containing the most representative examples in the training data, tailored to specific LLMs. To construct this subset, we introduce the "sufficiency" and "necessity" metrics in the pre-selection stage and design a tree-based algorithm to identify representative examples efficiently. Once pre-selected, this representative subset can effectively replace the full training data, improving efficiency while maintaining comparable performance in ICL. Additionally, our pre-selected subset also benefits fine-tuning LLMs, where we introduce a bi-level optimization method that enhances training efficiency without sacrificing performance. Experiments with LLMs ranging from 300M to 8B parameters show that FEEDER can reduce training data size by over 20% while maintaining performance and seamlessly integrating with various downstream demonstration selection strategies in ICL.

Fine-Grained Interpretation of Political Opinions in Large Language Models

Studies of LLMs' political opinions mainly rely on evaluations of their open-ended responses. Recent work indicates that there is a misalignment between LLMs' responses and their internal intentions. This motivates us to probe LLMs' internal mechanisms and help uncover their internal political states. Additionally, we found that the analysis of LLMs' political opinions often relies on single-axis concepts, which can lead to concept confounds. In this work, we extend the single-axis to multi-dimensions and apply interpretable representation engineering techniques for more transparent LLM political concept learning. Specifically, we designed a four-dimensional political learning framework and constructed a corresponding dataset for fine-grained political concept vector learning. These vectors can be used to detect and intervene in LLM internals. Experiments are conducted on eight open-source LLMs with three representation engineering techniques. Results show these vectors can disentangle political concept confounds. Detection tasks validate the semantic meaning of the vectors and show good generalization and robustness in OOD settings. Intervention Experiments show these vectors can intervene in LLMs to generate responses with different political leanings.

Estimating the Effects of Sample Training Orders for Large Language Models without Retraining

The order of training samples plays a crucial role in large language models (LLMs), significantly impacting both their external performance and internal learning dynamics. Traditional methods for investigating this effect generally require retraining the model with various sample orders, which is computationally infeasible for LLMs. In this work, we improve traditional methods by designing a retraining-free framework. By approximating Adam optimizer updates with first- and second-order Taylor expansions and utilizing random projection methods to store intermediate checkpoints, our framework can efficiently estimate model parameters for arbitrary training sample orders. Next, we apply our framework to two downstream research problems: (1) Training curriculum design for LLMs -- we base our retraining-free framework to propose a novel curriculum learning strategy that augments curriculum proposals with estimated model performances, enabling more informed sample scheduling. (2) LLMs' memorization and generalization effect analysis -- we use our retraining-free framework to estimate how the positions of training samples influence LLMs' capacity for memorization and generalization. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our retraining-free framework in reproducing the true model performances, and further demonstrate its potential in optimizing LLM training curricula and analyzing the memorization and generalization effects of LLMs.

MF-LLM: Simulating Collective Decision Dynamics via a Mean-Field Large Language Model Framework

Simulating collective decision-making involves more than aggregating individual behaviors; it arises from dynamic interactions among individuals. While large language models (LLMs) show promise for social simulation, existing approaches often exhibit deviations from real-world data. To address this gap, we propose the Mean-Field LLM (MF-LLM) framework, which explicitly models the feedback loop between micro-level decisions and macro-level population. MF-LLM alternates between two models: a policy model that generates individual actions based on personal states and group-level information, and a mean field model that updates the population distribution from the latest individual decisions. Together, they produce rollouts that simulate the evolving trajectories of collective decision-making. To better match real-world data, we introduce IB-Tune, a fine-tuning method for LLMs grounded in the information bottleneck principle, which maximizes the relevance of population distributions to future actions while minimizing redundancy with historical data. We evaluate MF-LLM on a real-world social dataset, where it reduces KL divergence to human population distributions by 47 percent over non-mean-field baselines, and enables accurate trend forecasting and intervention planning. It generalizes across seven domains and four LLM backbones, providing a scalable foundation for high-fidelity social simulation.

Beyond Prior Limits: Addressing Distribution Misalignment in Particle Filtering

Particle filtering is a Bayesian inference method and a fundamental tool in state estimation for dynamic systems, but its effectiveness is often limited by the constraints of the initial prior distribution, a phenomenon we define as the Prior Boundary Phenomenon. This challenge arises when target states lie outside the prior's support, rendering traditional particle filtering methods inadequate for accurate estimation. Although techniques like unbounded priors and larger particle sets have been proposed, they remain computationally prohibitive and lack adaptability in dynamic scenarios. To systematically overcome these limitations, we propose the Diffusion-Enhanced Particle Filtering Framework, which introduces three key innovations: adaptive diffusion through exploratory particles, entropy-driven regularisation to prevent weight collapse, and kernel-based perturbations for dynamic support expansion. These mechanisms collectively enable particle filtering to explore beyond prior boundaries, ensuring robust state estimation for out-of-boundary targets. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments validate framework's effectiveness, indicating significant improvements in success rates and estimation accuracy across high-dimensional and non-convex scenarios.

When Can Proxies Improve the Sample Complexity of Preference Learning?

We address the problem of reward hacking, where maximising a proxy reward does not necessarily increase the true reward. This is a key concern for Large Language Models (LLMs), as they are often fine-tuned on human preferences that may not accurately reflect a true objective. Existing work uses various tricks such as regularisation, tweaks to the reward model, and reward hacking detectors, to limit the influence that such proxy preferences have on a model. Luckily, in many contexts such as medicine, education, and law, a sparse amount of expert data is often available. In these cases, it is often unclear whether the addition of proxy data can improve policy learning. We outline a set of sufficient conditions on proxy feedback that, if satisfied, indicate that proxy data can provably improve the sample complexity of learning the ground truth policy. These conditions can inform the data collection process for specific tasks. The result implies a parameterisation for LLMs that achieves this improved sample complexity. We detail how one can adapt existing architectures to yield this improved sample complexity.

Causal Representation Learning from Multimodal Biological Observations

Prevalent in biological applications (e.g., human phenotype measurements), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying biological mechanisms. However, current machine learning models designed to analyze such datasets still lack interpretability and theoretical guarantees, which are essential to biological applications. Recent advances in causal representation learning have shown promise in uncovering the interpretable latent causal variables with formal theoretical certificates. Unfortunately, existing works for multimodal distributions either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or provide rather coarse identification results, limiting their applicability to biological research which favors a detailed understanding of the mechanisms. In this work, we aim to develop flexible identification conditions for multimodal data and principled methods to facilitate the understanding of biological datasets. Theoretically, we consider a flexible nonparametric latent distribution (c.f., parametric assumptions in prior work) permitting causal relationships across potentially different modalities. We establish identifiability guarantees for each latent component, extending the subspace identification results from prior work. Our key theoretical ingredient is the structural sparsity of the causal connections among distinct modalities, which, as we will discuss, is natural for a large collection of biological systems. Empirically, we propose a practical framework to instantiate our theoretical insights. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on both numerical and synthetic datasets. Results on a real-world human phenotype dataset are consistent with established medical research, validating our theoretical and methodological framework.

Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Large Language Model Priors

In sequential decision-making (SDM) tasks, methods like reinforcement learning (RL) and heuristic search have made notable advances in specific cases. However, they often require extensive exploration and face challenges in generalizing across diverse environments due to their limited grasp of the underlying decision dynamics. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as powerful general-purpose tools, due to their capacity to maintain vast amounts of domain-specific knowledge. To harness this rich prior knowledge for efficiently solving complex SDM tasks, we propose treating LLMs as prior action distributions and integrating them into RL frameworks through Bayesian inference methods, making use of variational inference and direct posterior sampling. The proposed approaches facilitate the seamless incorporation of fixed LLM priors into both policy-based and value-based RL frameworks. Our experiments show that incorporating LLM-based action priors significantly reduces exploration and optimization complexity, substantially improving sample efficiency compared to traditional RL techniques, e.g., using LLM priors decreases the number of required samples by over 90% in offline learning scenarios.

Attaining Human`s Desirable Outcomes in Human-AI Interaction via Structural Causal Games

In human-AI interaction, a prominent goal is to attain human`s desirable outcome with the assistance of AI agents, which can be ideally delineated as a problem of seeking the optimal Nash Equilibrium that matches the human`s desirable outcome. However, reaching the outcome is usually challenging due to the existence of multiple Nash Equilibria that are related to the assisting task but do not correspond to the human`s desirable outcome. To tackle this issue, we employ a theoretical framework called structural causal game (SCG) to formalize the human-AI interactive process. Furthermore, we introduce a strategy referred to as pre-policy intervention on the SCG to steer AI agents towards attaining the human`s desirable outcome. In more detail, a pre-policy is learned as a generalized intervention to guide the agents` policy selection, under a transparent and interpretable procedure determined by the SCG. To make the framework practical, we propose a reinforcement learning-like algorithm to search out this pre-policy. The proposed algorithm is tested in both gridworld environments and realistic dialogue scenarios with large language models, demonstrating its adaptability in a broader class of problems and potential effectiveness in real-world situations.