Skillful high-resolution weather forecasting independent of physical models

Accurate and timely weather forecasts are critical for high-impact decisions in modern society. Machine-learning-based weather prediction is emerging as an alternative for producing initial conditions, forecasts, and even both in end-to-end systems. These methods deliver predictions faster and often with higher skill than traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, even end-to-end models typically rely on NWP-generated reanalyses for supervision, thereby inheriting the biases and resolution limitations of those NWPs, and limiting adaptation to settings where suitable reanalysis products are unavailable, infrequently updated, or expensive to produce. Here we introduce ObsCast, a regional system that generates both analysis and predictions, without using any NWP-derived data in either training or inference, while still achieving state-of-the-art performance in short-term high-resolution regional modeling. Over the contiguous United States and Europe, ObsCast outperforms operational NWP for near-surface variables through 18 h and produces skillful precipitation forecasts. It provides a simpler and more adaptable route to build and refine regional forecasting services directly from local observations, without the need to develop complex and costly traditional forecasting pipelines.

Knowledge Dependency Estimation for Reliable Question Answering

Reliable question answering requires identifying not only whether an answer is correct, but also which available knowledge the prediction depends on. In realistic LLM-based QA, this knowledge may come from context, retrieval, decomposition, or intermediate reasoning, forming a noisy and redundant candidate space rather than a clean gold evidence set. We study \emph{knowledge dependency estimation}: estimating the sensitivity of a fixed black-box QA model to different candidate knowledge units. The challenge is to obtain fine-grained dependency scores without exhaustive test-time perturbation while modeling redundancy, substitutability, and complementarity. We propose \textbf{Knot}, a structured rank-aware knowledge dependency estimator. Knot learns from subset-level counterfactual supervision, models subset sensitivity through coverage over latent dependency factors, and derives rank-aware unit scores to identify influential candidates. Across multiple-choice and generative QA benchmarks, Knot outperforms all compared baselines in subset-sensitivity prediction and produces more faithful unit rankings than deployable baselines without extra QA-model calls; when used for practical risk screening, its dependency scores help flag error-prone QA predictions early.

CodecSplat: Ultra-Compact Latent Coding for Feed-Forward 3D Gaussian Splatting

While feed-forward 3D Gaussian splatting reconstructs renderable Gaussian primitives from sparse context views without per-scene optimization, existing pipelines do not provide a compact scene representation for storage or transmission. A natural solution is to apply existing 3DGS compression methods to the generated Gaussian primitives. However, this approach operates on the final irregular 3D representation and is decoupled from the internal feature-to-Gaussian generation process, which limits compression efficiency. To address this, we introduce CodecSplat, an ultra-compact latent coding framework for feed-forward 3D Gaussian splatting. CodecSplat first encodes an intermediate 2D Gaussian-generation feature into an entropy-coded scene bitstream. At the decoder, the latent feature is reconstructed and used to predict depth and Gaussian parameters, which are then mapped to 3D Gaussian primitives. Note that, by integrating compression into the feed-forward Gaussian generation pipeline, CodecSplat avoids inefficient compression over irregular 3D Gaussian primitives and allows the codec to exploit the structured intermediate feature representation. We instantiate CodecSplat on a feed-forward Gaussian splatting backbone with depth-guided multi-view feature refinement and a hierarchical learned feature codec. On DL3DV and RealEstate10K datasets, CodecSplat achieves 23.56-26.36 dB and 24.76-27.05 dB PSNR with only 20.00-107.77 KiB and 3.37-12.51 KiB per scene, respectively. This is roughly one order of magnitude smaller than compressing feed-forward generated Gaussian primitives, while preserving controllable rate-distortion behavior.

Profiling-Driven Adaptive Distributed Transformer Inference on Embedded Edge Deployment

Distributing Transformer inference across embedded edge devices can alleviate individual memory and compute constraints, yet practical benefits on real hardware remain unclear: prior work relies largely on simulations that overlook hardware-specific communication overheads. We present a hardware prototype study on NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano devices connected over WiFi. Our key finding is that the dominant bottleneck is not just network bandwidth but also the CPU-GPU staging during communication. Because Jetson's integrated GPU architecture lacks the PCIe/NVLink pathway that NCCL requires, all inter-device data communication should be routed through GLOO and staged in CPU memory; an overhead that scales with communication data volume and makes full-tensor exchange slower than single-device inference across the batch sizes for medium sized models such as ViT. We therefore evaluate Prism by combining Segment Means compression with lightweight offline profiling to adaptively select between local and distributed execution at runtime. Experiments show that this strategy reduces latency by 65%-77% and energy consumption by 34%-52% relative to full-tensor exchange in static distributed execution setup, demonstrating that profiling-driven adaptation is essential for practical distributed Transformer inference on embedded hardware.

Inconsistency-aware Multimodal Schrödinger Bridge for Deepfake Localization

Audio-visual deepfake localization demands interval-level outputs that serve as temporal evidence. Despite recent progress, symmetric fusion under single-sided or asynchronous forgeries propagates cross-modal noise, degrading high-precision localization. We present IaMSB, an inconsistency-aware multimodal Schrödinger Bridge (SB) that jointly estimates cross-modal consistency and performs interval-level localization. Unlike diffusion models, SB minimizes path-distribution discrepancy and yields consistency scores without explicit noise injection or denoising. With the Schrödinger Bridge (SB), IaMSB unifies consistency estimation, cross-modal information selection, and bridge-step scheduling in one framework. Specifically, a lightweight coarse bridge first proposes candidate intervals and estimates cross-modal consistency; these statistics select cross-modal witness signals and allocate bridge steps asymmetrically across modalities. A refinement bridge then performs step-tuned fusion and outputs refined, time-aligned intervals. IaMSB anticipates single-sided and asynchronous forgeries and, using bottlenecked cross-modal interaction with step allocation, suppresses noise transfer, avoids unnecessary iterations. Across benchmarks, IaMSB stabilizes strict-IoU boundary precision, raising AP@0.95 by 3%~10%, and yields improved high-precision localization, particularly for single-sided forgeries.

CR4T: Rewrite-Based Guardrails for Adolescent LLM Safety

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly embedded in adolescent digital environments, mediating information seeking, advice, and emotionally sensitive interactions. Yet existing safety mechanisms remain largely grounded in adult-centric norms and operationalize safety through refusal-oriented suppression. While such approaches may reduce immediate policy violations, they can also create conversational dead-ends, limit constructive guidance, and fail to address the developmental vulnerabilities inherent in adolescent-AI interactions. We argue that adolescent LLM safety should be framed not solely as a filtering problem, but as a socio-technical, developmentally aligned transformation problem. To operationalize this perspective, we propose Critique-and-Revise-for-Teenagers (CR4T), a model-agnostic safeguarding framework that selectively reconstructs unsafe or refusal-style outputs into ageappropriate, guidance-oriented responses while preserving benign intent. CR4T combines lightweight risk detection with domain-conditioned rewriting to remove risk-amplifying content, reduce unnecessary conversational shutdown, and introduce developmentally appropriate guidance. Experimental results show that targeted rewriting substantially reduces unsafe and refusal-oriented outcomes while avoiding unnecessary intervention on acceptable interactions. These findings suggest that selective response reconstruction offers a more human-centered alternative to refusal-centric guardrails for adolescent-facing LLM systems.

From Parameters to Data: A Task-Parameter-Guided Fine-Tuning Pipeline for Efficient LLM Alignment

Adapting Large Language Models (LLMs) to specialized domains typically incurs high data and computational overhead. While prior efficiency efforts have largely treated data selection and parameter-efficient fine-tuning as isolated processes, our empirical analysis suggests they may be intrinsically coupled. We posit the Strong Map Hypothesis: a sparse subset of attention heads plays a dominant role in task-specific adaptation, acting as keys that unlock specific data patterns. Building on this observation, we propose From Parameters to Data (P2D), a unified framework that leverages these task-sensitive attention heads as a dual compass for both sample mining and structural pruning. To rigorously quantify the total pipeline cost, we introduce the Alignment Efficiency Ratio (AER) metric for both selection latency and training time. Mechanistically, P2D identifies critical heads via a lightweight proxy and uses them as a functional filter to curate high-affinity data, establishing a synergistic pipeline. Empirically, by updating merely 10% of attention heads on 10% of the data, P2D achieves an 8.3 pp performance gain over strong baselines and delivers a 7.0x end-to-end time speedup. These results validate that precise parameter-data synchronization eliminates redundancy, offering a new paradigm for efficient alignment.

LLMEval-Logic: A Solver-Verified Chinese Benchmark for Logical Reasoning of LLMs with Adversarial Hardening

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on natural-language logical reasoning is essential because rule-governed tasks require conclusions to follow strictly from stated premises. Many existing logical-reasoning benchmarks are generated by templating natural-language items from sampled formulas, provide only coarse or unaudited formal annotations, and are now quickly saturated by frontier reasoning models. We present LLMEval-Logic, a Chinese logical reasoning benchmark built from realistic situational scenarios. Its pipeline forward-authors and expert-audits natural-language items together with their reference formalizations, verifies annotated answers with Z3, constructs expert rubrics for natural-to-formal grading, and hardens selected items through a closed-loop adversarial workflow. The benchmark is released in two paired subsets: a 246-item Base subset shipped with 1,400 expert-developed rubric atoms, and a 190-item Hard subset with 938 multi-step sub-questions over closed model spaces. Evaluating 14 frontier LLMs on LLMEval-Logic reveals substantial gaps in current models: the best model reaches only 37.5% Hard Item Accuracy, and even with reference symbols the highest joint Z3+Rubric formalization score among evaluated models reaches only 60.16%. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/llmeval/LLMEval-Logic.

Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control

Policy entropy has emerged as a fundamental measure for understanding and controlling exploration in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for LLMs. However, existing entropy-aware methods mainly regulate entropy through global objectives, while the token-level mechanism by which sampled policy updates reshape policy entropy remains underexplored. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework of entropy mechanics in RLVR. Our analysis yields a first-order approximation of the entropy change, giving rise to entropy polarity, a signed token-level quantity that predicts how much a sampled update expands or contracts entropy. This analysis further reveals a structural asymmetry: reinforcing frequent high-probability tokens triggers contraction tendencies, whereas expansive tendencies typically require lower-probability samples or stronger distributional correction. Empirically, we show that entropy polarity reliably predicts entropy changes, and that positive and negative polarity branches play complementary roles in preserving exploration while strengthening exploitation. Building on these insights, we propose Polarity-Aware Policy Optimization (PAPO), which preserves both polarity branches and implements entropy control through advantage reweighting. With the empirical entropy trajectory as an online phase signal, PAPO adaptively reallocates optimization pressure between entropy-expanding and entropy-contracting updates. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and agentic benchmarks show that PAPO consistently outperforms competitive baselines, while delivering superior training efficiency and substantial reward improvements.

Neural Video Compression with Domain Transfer

Content-adaptive compression has always been a key direction in neural video coding (NVC), aiming to mitigate the domain gap between training and testing data. Such gaps often arise from distributional discrepancies between training and inference data, which may cause noticeable performance degradation when the testing content differs from the training distribution. To tackle this challenge, we propose DCVC-DT, a domain transfer enhanced neural video compression framework. Specifically, we design a lightweight online domain transfer (DT) mechanism that dynamically adapts the encoded latent representation during inference, effectively bridging the domain gap without modifying the encoder or decoder parameters. In addition, we develop a frame-level dynamic RD (Rate and Distortion) adjustment scheme that actively regulates the ratio of R and D in the loss function based on quality fluctuation, thereby improving rate-distortion performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DCVC-DT achieves up to 6.21% bitrate savings over the baseline DCVC-DC, while significantly enhancing generalization to unseen testing data and alleviating error propagation. Our code is available at https://github.com/SunnyMass/DCVC-DT.