MacroHFT: Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement Learning On High Frequency Trading

High-frequency trading (HFT) that executes algorithmic trading in short time scales, has recently occupied the majority of cryptocurrency market. Besides traditional quantitative trading methods, reinforcement learning (RL) has become another appealing approach for HFT due to its terrific ability of handling high-dimensional financial data and solving sophisticated sequential decision-making problems, \emph{e.g.,} hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) has shown its promising performance on second-level HFT by training a router to select only one sub-agent from the agent pool to execute the current transaction. However, existing RL methods for HFT still have some defects: 1) standard RL-based trading agents suffer from the overfitting issue, preventing them from making effective policy adjustments based on financial context; 2) due to the rapid changes in market conditions, investment decisions made by an individual agent are usually one-sided and highly biased, which might lead to significant loss in extreme markets. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement learning method On HFT, \emph{a.k.a.} MacroHFT, which consists of two training phases: 1) we first train multiple types of sub-agents with the market data decomposed according to various financial indicators, specifically market trend and volatility, where each agent owns a conditional adapter to adjust its trading policy according to market conditions; 2) then we train a hyper-agent to mix the decisions from these sub-agents and output a consistently profitable meta-policy to handle rapid market fluctuations, equipped with a memory mechanism to enhance the capability of decision-making. Extensive experiments on various cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that MacroHFT can achieve state-of-the-art performance on minute-level trading tasks.

Latent Logic Tree Extraction for Event Sequence Explanation from LLMs

Modern high-stakes systems, such as healthcare or robotics, often generate vast streaming event sequences. Our goal is to design an efficient, plug-and-play tool to elicit logic tree-based explanations from Large Language Models (LLMs) to provide customized insights into each observed event sequence. Built on the temporal point process model for events, our method employs the likelihood function as a score to evaluate generated logic trees. We propose an amortized Expectation-Maximization (EM) learning framework and treat the logic tree as latent variables. In the E-step, we evaluate the posterior distribution over the latent logic trees using an LLM prior and the likelihood of the observed event sequences. LLM provides a high-quality prior for the latent logic trees, however, since the posterior is built over a discrete combinatorial space, we cannot get the closed-form solution. We propose to generate logic tree samples from the posterior using a learnable GFlowNet, which is a diversity-seeking generator for structured discrete variables. The M-step employs the generated logic rules to approximate marginalization over the posterior, facilitating the learning of model parameters and refining the tunable LLM prior parameters. In the online setting, our locally built, lightweight model will iteratively extract the most relevant rules from LLMs for each sequence using only a few iterations. Empirical demonstrations showcase the promising performance and adaptability of our framework.

MANO: Exploiting Matrix Norm for Unsupervised Accuracy Estimation Under Distribution Shifts

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the $L_p$ norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

Resisting Stochastic Risks in Diffusion Planners with the Trajectory Aggregation Tree

Diffusion planners have shown promise in handling long-horizon and sparse-reward tasks due to the non-autoregressive plan generation. However, their inherent stochastic risk of generating infeasible trajectories presents significant challenges to their reliability and stability. We introduce a novel approach, the Trajectory Aggregation Tree (TAT), to address this issue in diffusion planners. Compared to prior methods that rely solely on raw trajectory predictions, TAT aggregates information from both historical and current trajectories, forming a dynamic tree-like structure. Each trajectory is conceptualized as a branch and individual states as nodes. As the structure evolves with the integration of new trajectories, unreliable states are marginalized, and the most impactful nodes are prioritized for decision-making. TAT can be deployed without modifying the original training and sampling pipelines of diffusion planners, making it a training-free, ready-to-deploy solution. We provide both theoretical analysis and empirical evidence to support TAT's effectiveness. Our results highlight its remarkable ability to resist the risk from unreliable trajectories, guarantee the performance boosting of diffusion planners in $100\%$ of tasks, and exhibit an appreciable tolerance margin for sample quality, thereby enabling planning with a more than $3\times$ acceleration.

Configurable Mirror Descent: Towards a Unification of Decision Making

Decision-making problems, categorized as single-agent, e.g., Atari, cooperative multi-agent, e.g., Hanabi, competitive multi-agent, e.g., Hold'em poker, and mixed cooperative and competitive, e.g., football, are ubiquitous in the real world. Various methods are proposed to address the specific decision-making problems. Despite the successes in specific categories, these methods typically evolve independently and cannot generalize to other categories. Therefore, a fundamental question for decision-making is: \emph{Can we develop \textbf{a single algorithm} to tackle \textbf{ALL} categories of decision-making problems?} There are several main challenges to address this question: i) different decision-making categories involve different numbers of agents and different relationships between agents, ii) different categories have different solution concepts and evaluation measures, and iii) there lacks a comprehensive benchmark covering all the categories. This work presents a preliminary attempt to address the question with three main contributions. i) We propose the generalized mirror descent (GMD), a generalization of MD variants, which considers multiple historical policies and works with a broader class of Bregman divergences. ii) We propose the configurable mirror descent (CMD) where a meta-controller is introduced to dynamically adjust the hyper-parameters in GMD conditional on the evaluation measures. iii) We construct the \textsc{GameBench} with 15 academic-friendly games across different decision-making categories. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CMD achieves empirically competitive or better outcomes compared to baselines while providing the capability of exploring diverse dimensions of decision making.

vMFER: Von Mises-Fisher Experience Resampling Based on Uncertainty of Gradient Directions for Policy Improvement

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a widely employed technique in decision-making problems, encompassing two fundamental operations -- policy evaluation and policy improvement. Enhancing learning efficiency remains a key challenge in RL, with many efforts focused on using ensemble critics to boost policy evaluation efficiency. However, when using multiple critics, the actor in the policy improvement process can obtain different gradients. Previous studies have combined these gradients without considering their disagreements. Therefore, optimizing the policy improvement process is crucial to enhance learning efficiency. This study focuses on investigating the impact of gradient disagreements caused by ensemble critics on policy improvement. We introduce the concept of uncertainty of gradient directions as a means to measure the disagreement among gradients utilized in the policy improvement process. Through measuring the disagreement among gradients, we find that transitions with lower uncertainty of gradient directions are more reliable in the policy improvement process. Building on this analysis, we propose a method called von Mises-Fisher Experience Resampling (vMFER), which optimizes the policy improvement process by resampling transitions and assigning higher confidence to transitions with lower uncertainty of gradient directions. Our experiments demonstrate that vMFER significantly outperforms the benchmark and is particularly well-suited for ensemble structures in RL.

S$^2$AC: Energy-Based Reinforcement Learning with Stein Soft Actor Critic

Learning expressive stochastic policies instead of deterministic ones has been proposed to achieve better stability, sample complexity, and robustness. Notably, in Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning (MaxEnt RL), the policy is modeled as an expressive Energy-Based Model (EBM) over the Q-values. However, this formulation requires the estimation of the entropy of such EBMs, which is an open problem. To address this, previous MaxEnt RL methods either implicitly estimate the entropy, resulting in high computational complexity and variance (SQL), or follow a variational inference procedure that fits simplified actor distributions (e.g., Gaussian) for tractability (SAC). We propose Stein Soft Actor-Critic (S$^2$AC), a MaxEnt RL algorithm that learns expressive policies without compromising efficiency. Specifically, S$^2$AC uses parameterized Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) as the underlying policy. We derive a closed-form expression of the entropy of such policies. Our formula is computationally efficient and only depends on first-order derivatives and vector products. Empirical results show that S$^2$AC yields more optimal solutions to the MaxEnt objective than SQL and SAC in the multi-goal environment, and outperforms SAC and SQL on the MuJoCo benchmark. Our code is available at: https://github.com/SafaMessaoud/S2AC-Energy-Based-RL-with-Stein-Soft-Actor-Critic

Grasper: A Generalist Pursuer for Pursuit-Evasion Problems

Pursuit-evasion games (PEGs) model interactions between a team of pursuers and an evader in graph-based environments such as urban street networks. Recent advancements have demonstrated the effectiveness of the pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm in PSRO to improve scalability in solving large-scale PEGs. However, these methods primarily focus on specific PEGs with fixed initial conditions that may vary substantially in real-world scenarios, which significantly hinders the applicability of the traditional methods. To address this issue, we introduce Grasper, a GeneRAlist purSuer for Pursuit-Evasion pRoblems, capable of efficiently generating pursuer policies tailored to specific PEGs. Our contributions are threefold: First, we present a novel architecture that offers high-quality solutions for diverse PEGs, comprising critical components such as (i) a graph neural network (GNN) to encode PEGs into hidden vectors, and (ii) a hypernetwork to generate pursuer policies based on these hidden vectors. As a second contribution, we develop an efficient three-stage training method involving (i) a pre-pretraining stage for learning robust PEG representations through self-supervised graph learning techniques like GraphMAE, (ii) a pre-training stage utilizing heuristic-guided multi-task pre-training (HMP) where heuristic-derived reference policies (e.g., through Dijkstra's algorithm) regularize pursuer policies, and (iii) a fine-tuning stage that employs PSRO to generate pursuer policies on designated PEGs. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world maps, showcasing Grasper's significant superiority over baselines in terms of solution quality and generalizability. We demonstrate that Grasper provides a versatile approach for solving pursuit-evasion problems across a broad range of scenarios, enabling practical deployment in real-world situations.

Self-adaptive PSRO: Towards an Automatic Population-based Game Solver

Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) as a general algorithmic framework has achieved state-of-the-art performance in learning equilibrium policies of two-player zero-sum games. However, the hand-crafted hyperparameter value selection in most of the existing works requires extensive domain knowledge, forming the main barrier to applying PSRO to different games. In this work, we make the first attempt to investigate the possibility of self-adaptively determining the optimal hyperparameter values in the PSRO framework. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) Using several hyperparameters, we propose a parametric PSRO that unifies the gradient descent ascent (GDA) and different PSRO variants. (2) We propose the self-adaptive PSRO (SPSRO) by casting the hyperparameter value selection of the parametric PSRO as a hyperparameter optimization (HPO) problem where our objective is to learn an HPO policy that can self-adaptively determine the optimal hyperparameter values during the running of the parametric PSRO. (3) To overcome the poor performance of online HPO methods, we propose a novel offline HPO approach to optimize the HPO policy based on the Transformer architecture. Experiments on various two-player zero-sum games demonstrate the superiority of SPSRO over different baselines.

AgentStudio: A Toolkit for Building General Virtual Agents

Creating autonomous virtual agents capable of using arbitrary software on any digital device remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence. Two key obstacles hinder progress: insufficient infrastructure for building virtual agents in real-world environments, and the need for in-the-wild evaluation of fundamental agent abilities. To address this, we introduce AgentStudio, an online, realistic, and multimodal toolkit that covers the entire lifecycle of agent development. This includes environment setups, data collection, agent evaluation, and visualization. The observation and action spaces are highly generic, supporting both function calling and human-computer interfaces. This versatility is further enhanced by AgentStudio's graphical user interfaces, which allow efficient development of datasets and benchmarks in real-world settings. To illustrate, we introduce a visual grounding dataset and a real-world benchmark suite, both created with our graphical interfaces. Furthermore, we present several actionable insights derived from AgentStudio, e.g., general visual grounding, open-ended tool creation, learning from videos, etc. We have open-sourced the environments, datasets, benchmarks, and interfaces to promote research towards developing general virtual agents for the future.