What-If Analysis of Large Language Models: Explore the Game World Using Proactive Thinking

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

ConfTuner: Training Large Language Models to Express Their Confidence Verbally

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed to generate incorrect answers with high confidence, a phenomenon known as "overconfidence". Recent efforts have focused on calibrating LLMs' verbalized confidence: i.e., their expressions of confidence in text form, such as "I am 80% confident that...". Existing approaches either rely on prompt engineering or fine-tuning with heuristically generated uncertainty estimates, both of which have limited effectiveness and generalizability. Motivated by the notion of proper scoring rules for calibration in classical machine learning models, we introduce ConfTuner, a simple and efficient fine-tuning method that introduces minimal overhead and does not require ground-truth confidence scores or proxy confidence estimates. ConfTuner relies on a new loss function, tokenized Brier score, which we theoretically prove to be a proper scoring rule, intuitively meaning that it "correctly incentivizes the model to report its true probability of being correct". ConfTuner improves calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and generalizes to black-box models such as GPT-4o. Our results further show that better-calibrated confidence enables downstream gains in self-correction and model cascade, advancing the development of trustworthy LLM systems. The code is available at https://github.com/liushiliushi/ConfTuner.

Beyond Brainstorming: What Drives High-Quality Scientific Ideas? Lessons from Multi-Agent Collaboration

While AI agents show potential in scientific ideation, most existing frameworks rely on single-agent refinement, limiting creativity due to bounded knowledge and perspective. Inspired by real-world research dynamics, this paper investigates whether structured multi-agent discussions can surpass solitary ideation. We propose a cooperative multi-agent framework for generating research proposals and systematically compare configurations including group size, leaderled versus leaderless structures, and team compositions varying in interdisciplinarity and seniority. To assess idea quality, we employ a comprehensive protocol with agent-based scoring and human review across dimensions such as novelty, strategic vision, and integration depth. Our results show that multi-agent discussions substantially outperform solitary baselines. A designated leader acts as a catalyst, transforming discussion into more integrated and visionary proposals. Notably, we find that cognitive diversity is a primary driver of quality, yet expertise is a non-negotiable prerequisite, as teams lacking a foundation of senior knowledge fail to surpass even a single competent agent. These findings offer actionable insights for designing collaborative AI ideation systems and shed light on how team structure influences creative outcomes.

Enabling Self-Improving Agents to Learn at Test Time With Human-In-The-Loop Guidance

Large language model (LLM) agents often struggle in environments where rules and required domain knowledge frequently change, such as regulatory compliance and user risk screening. Current approaches, like offline fine-tuning and standard prompting, are insufficient because they cannot effectively adapt to new knowledge during actual operation. To address this limitation, we propose the Adaptive Reflective Interactive Agent (ARIA), an LLM agent framework designed specifically to continuously learn updated domain knowledge at test time. ARIA assesses its own uncertainty through structured self-dialogue, proactively identifying knowledge gaps and requesting targeted explanations or corrections from human experts. It then systematically updates an internal, timestamped knowledge repository with provided human guidance, detecting and resolving conflicting or outdated knowledge through comparisons and clarification queries. We evaluate ARIA on the realistic customer due diligence name screening task on TikTok Pay, alongside publicly available dynamic knowledge tasks. Results demonstrate significant improvements in adaptability and accuracy compared to baselines using standard offline fine-tuning and existing self-improving agents. ARIA is deployed within TikTok Pay serving over 150 million monthly active users, confirming its practicality and effectiveness for operational use in rapidly evolving environments.

Automating Steering for Safe Multimodal Large Language Models

Recent progress in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has unlocked powerful cross-modal reasoning abilities, but also raised new safety concerns, particularly when faced with adversarial multimodal inputs. To improve the safety of MLLMs during inference, we introduce a modular and adaptive inference-time intervention technology, AutoSteer, without requiring any fine-tuning of the underlying model. AutoSteer incorporates three core components: (1) a novel Safety Awareness Score (SAS) that automatically identifies the most safety-relevant distinctions among the model's internal layers; (2) an adaptive safety prober trained to estimate the likelihood of toxic outputs from intermediate representations; and (3) a lightweight Refusal Head that selectively intervenes to modulate generation when safety risks are detected. Experiments on LLaVA-OV and Chameleon across diverse safety-critical benchmarks demonstrate that AutoSteer significantly reduces the Attack Success Rate (ASR) for textual, visual, and cross-modal threats, while maintaining general abilities. These findings position AutoSteer as a practical, interpretable, and effective framework for safer deployment of multimodal AI systems.

ChineseHarm-Bench: A Chinese Harmful Content Detection Benchmark

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to automated harmful content detection tasks, assisting moderators in identifying policy violations and improving the overall efficiency and accuracy of content review. However, existing resources for harmful content detection are predominantly focused on English, with Chinese datasets remaining scarce and often limited in scope. We present a comprehensive, professionally annotated benchmark for Chinese content harm detection, which covers six representative categories and is constructed entirely from real-world data. Our annotation process further yields a knowledge rule base that provides explicit expert knowledge to assist LLMs in Chinese harmful content detection. In addition, we propose a knowledge-augmented baseline that integrates both human-annotated knowledge rules and implicit knowledge from large language models, enabling smaller models to achieve performance comparable to state-of-the-art LLMs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/zjunlp/ChineseHarm-bench.

How Does Response Length Affect Long-Form Factuality

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for long-form text generation. However, factual errors in the responses would undermine their reliability. Despite growing attention to LLM factuality, the effect of response length on factuality remains underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate this relationship by first introducing an automatic and bi-level long-form factuality evaluation framework, which achieves high agreement with human annotations while being cost-effective. Using this framework, we conduct controlled experiments and find that longer responses exhibit lower factual precision, confirming the presence of length bias. To explain this phenomenon, we empirically examine three hypotheses: error propagation, long context, and facts exhaustion. Our results reveal that facts exhaustion, where the model gradually exhausts more reliable knowledge, is the primary cause of factual degradation, rather than the other two hypotheses.

Efficient Reasoning via Chain of Unconscious Thought

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve promising performance but compromise token efficiency due to verbose reasoning processes. Unconscious Thought Theory (UTT) posits that complex problems can be solved more efficiently through internalized cognitive processes. Inspired by UTT, we propose a new reasoning paradigm, termed Chain of Unconscious Thought (CoUT), to improve the token efficiency of LRMs by guiding them to mimic human unconscious thought and internalize reasoning processes. Concretely, we first prompt the model to internalize the reasoning by thinking in the hidden layer. Then, we design a bag of token-efficient strategies to further help models reduce unnecessary tokens yet preserve the performance. Our work reveals that models may possess beneficial unconscious thought, enabling improved efficiency without sacrificing performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CoUT. Remarkably, it surpasses CoT by reducing token usage by 47.62% while maintaining comparable accuracy, as shown in Figure 1. The code of CoUT is available at this link: https://github.com/Rohan-GRH/CoUT

MLR-Bench: Evaluating AI Agents on Open-Ended Machine Learning Research

Recent advancements in AI agents have demonstrated their growing potential to drive and support scientific discovery. In this work, we introduce MLR-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating AI agents on open-ended machine learning research. MLR-Bench includes three key components: (1) 201 research tasks sourced from NeurIPS, ICLR, and ICML workshops covering diverse ML topics; (2) MLR-Judge, an automated evaluation framework combining LLM-based reviewers with carefully designed review rubrics to assess research quality; and (3) MLR-Agent, a modular agent scaffold capable of completing research tasks through four stages: idea generation, proposal formulation, experimentation, and paper writing. Our framework supports both stepwise assessment across these distinct research stages, and end-to-end evaluation of the final research paper. We then use MLR-Bench to evaluate six frontier LLMs and an advanced coding agent, finding that while LLMs are effective at generating coherent ideas and well-structured papers, current coding agents frequently (e.g., in 80% of the cases) produce fabricated or invalidated experimental results--posing a major barrier to scientific reliability. We validate MLR-Judge through human evaluation, showing high agreement with expert reviewers, supporting its potential as a scalable tool for research evaluation. We open-source MLR-Bench to help the community benchmark, diagnose, and improve AI research agents toward trustworthy and transparent scientific discovery.

Seeing Through Deception: Uncovering Misleading Creator Intent in Multimodal News with Vision-Language Models

The real-world impact of misinformation stems from the underlying misleading narratives that creators seek to convey. As such, interpreting misleading creator intent is essential for multimodal misinformation detection (MMD) systems aimed at effective information governance. In this paper, we introduce an automated framework that simulates real-world multimodal news creation by explicitly modeling creator intent through two components: the desired influence and the execution plan. Using this framework, we construct DeceptionDecoded, a large-scale benchmark comprising 12,000 image-caption pairs aligned with trustworthy reference articles. The dataset captures both misleading and non-misleading intents and spans manipulations across visual and textual modalities. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 14 state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) on three intent-centric tasks: (1) misleading intent detection, (2) misleading source attribution, and (3) creator desire inference. Despite recent advances, we observe that current VLMs fall short in recognizing misleading intent, often relying on spurious cues such as superficial cross-modal consistency, stylistic signals, and heuristic authenticity hints. Our findings highlight the pressing need for intent-aware modeling in MMD and open new directions for developing systems capable of deeper reasoning about multimodal misinformation.