Effective macroeconomic policies play a crucial role in promoting economic growth and social stability. This paper models the optimal macroeconomic policy problem based on the \textit{Stackelberg Mean Field Game} (SMFG), where the government acts as the leader in policy-making, and large-scale households dynamically respond as followers. This modeling method captures the asymmetric dynamic game between the government and large-scale households, and interpretably evaluates the effects of macroeconomic policies based on microfoundations, which is difficult for existing methods to achieve. We also propose a solution for SMFGs, incorporating pre-training on real data and a model-free \textit{Stackelberg mean-field reinforcement learning }(SMFRL) algorithm, which operates independently of prior environmental knowledge and transitions. Our experimental results showcase the superiority of the SMFG method over other economic policies in terms of performance, efficiency-equity tradeoff, and SMFG assumption analysis. This paper significantly contributes to the domain of AI for economics by providing a powerful tool for modeling and solving optimal macroeconomic policies.
The application of artificial intelligence technology has greatly enhanced and fortified the safety of energy pipelines, particularly in safeguarding against external threats. The predominant methods involve the integration of intelligent sensors to detect external vibration, enabling the identification of event types and locations, thereby replacing manual detection methods. However, practical implementation has exposed a limitation in current methods - their constrained ability to accurately discern the spatial dimensions of external signals, which complicates the authentication of threat events. Our research endeavors to overcome the above issues by harnessing deep learning techniques to achieve a more fine-grained recognition and localization process. This refinement is crucial in effectively identifying genuine threats to pipelines, thus enhancing the safety of energy transportation. This paper proposes a radial threat estimation method for energy pipelines based on distributed optical fiber sensing technology. Specifically, we introduce a continuous multi-view and multi-domain feature fusion methodology to extract comprehensive signal features and construct a threat estimation and recognition network. The utilization of collected acoustic signal data is optimized, and the underlying principle is elucidated. Moreover, we incorporate the concept of transfer learning through a pre-trained model, enhancing both recognition accuracy and training efficiency. Empirical evidence gathered from real-world scenarios underscores the efficacy of our method, notably in its substantial reduction of false alarms and remarkable gains in recognition accuracy. More generally, our method exhibits versatility and can be extrapolated to a broader spectrum of recognition tasks and scenarios.
StarCraft II is a challenging benchmark for AI agents due to the necessity of both precise micro level operations and strategic macro awareness. Previous works, such as Alphastar and SCC, achieve impressive performance on tackling StarCraft II , however, still exhibit deficiencies in long term strategic planning and strategy interpretability. Emerging large language model (LLM) agents, such as Voyage and MetaGPT, presents the immense potential in solving intricate tasks. Motivated by this, we aim to validate the capabilities of LLMs on StarCraft II, a highly complex RTS game.To conveniently take full advantage of LLMs` reasoning abilities, we first develop textual StratCraft II environment, called TextStarCraft II, which LLM agent can interact. Secondly, we propose a Chain of Summarization method, including single frame summarization for processing raw observations and multi frame summarization for analyzing game information, providing command recommendations, and generating strategic decisions. Our experiment consists of two parts: first, an evaluation by human experts, which includes assessing the LLMs`s mastery of StarCraft II knowledge and the performance of LLM agents in the game; second, the in game performance of LLM agents, encompassing aspects like win rate and the impact of Chain of Summarization.Experiment results demonstrate that: 1. LLMs possess the relevant knowledge and complex planning abilities needed to address StarCraft II scenarios; 2. Human experts consider the performance of LLM agents to be close to that of an average player who has played StarCraft II for eight years; 3. LLM agents are capable of defeating the built in AI at the Harder(Lv5) difficulty level. We have open sourced the code and released demo videos of LLM agent playing StarCraft II.
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate their promise in tackling complicated practical challenges by combining action-based policies with chain of thought (CoT) reasoning. Having high-quality prompts on hand, however, is vital to the framework's effectiveness. Currently, these prompts are handcrafted utilizing extensive human labor, resulting in CoT policies that frequently fail to generalize. Human intervention is also required in order to develop grounding functions that ensure low-level controllers appropriately process CoT reasoning. In this paper, we take the first step towards a fully integrated end-to-end framework for task-solving in real settings employing complicated reasoning. To that purpose, we offer a new leader-follower bilevel framework capable of learning to ask relevant questions (prompts) and subsequently undertaking reasoning to guide the learning of actions to be performed in an environment. A good prompt should make introspective revisions based on historical findings, leading the CoT to consider the anticipated goals. A prompt-generator policy has its own aim in our system, allowing it to adapt to the action policy and automatically root the CoT process towards outputs that lead to decisive, high-performing actions. Meanwhile, the action policy is learning how to use the CoT outputs to take specific actions. Our empirical data reveal that our system outperforms leading methods in agent learning benchmarks such as Overcooked and FourRoom.
Relative pose estimation is the foundational requirement for multi-robot system, while it is a challenging research topic in infrastructure-free scenes. In this study, we analyze the relative 6-DOF pose estimation error of multi-robot system in GNSS-denied and anchor-free environment. An analytical lower bound of position and orientation estimation error is given under the assumption that distance between the nodes are far more than the size of robotic platform. Through simulation, impact of distance between nodes, altitudes and circumradius of tag simplex on pose estimation accuracy is discussed, which verifies the analysis results. Our analysis is expected to determine parameters (e.g. deployment of tags) of UWB based multi-robot systems.
Transformer architectures have facilitated the development of large-scale and general-purpose sequence models for prediction tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, e.g., GPT-3 and Swin Transformer. Although originally designed for prediction problems, it is natural to inquire about their suitability for sequential decision-making and reinforcement learning problems, which are typically beset by long-standing issues involving sample efficiency, credit assignment, and partial observability. In recent years, sequence models, especially the Transformer, have attracted increasing interest in the RL communities, spawning numerous approaches with notable effectiveness and generalizability. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of recent works aimed at solving sequential decision-making tasks with sequence models such as the Transformer, by discussing the connection between sequential decision-making and sequence modeling, and categorizing them based on the way they utilize the Transformer. Moreover, this paper puts forth various potential avenues for future research intending to improve the effectiveness of large sequence models for sequential decision-making, encompassing theoretical foundations, network architectures, algorithms, and efficient training systems. As this article has been accepted by the Frontiers of Computer Science, here is an early version, and the most up-to-date version can be found at https://journal.hep.com.cn/fcs/EN/10.1007/s11704-023-2689-5
Few multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) research on Google Research Football (GRF) focus on the 11v11 multi-agent full-game scenario and to the best of our knowledge, no open benchmark on this scenario has been released to the public. In this work, we fill the gap by providing a population-based MARL training pipeline and hyperparameter settings on multi-agent football scenario that outperforms the bot with difficulty 1.0 from scratch within 2 million steps. Our experiments serve as a reference for the expected performance of Independent Proximal Policy Optimization (IPPO), a state-of-the-art multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm where each agent tries to maximize its own policy independently across various training configurations. Meanwhile, we open-source our training framework Light-MALib which extends the MALib codebase by distributed and asynchronized implementation with additional analytical tools for football games. Finally, we provide guidance for building strong football AI with population-based training and release diverse pretrained policies for benchmarking. The goal is to provide the community with a head start for whoever experiment their works on GRF and a simple-to-use population-based training framework for further improving their agents through self-play. The implementation is available at https://github.com/Shanghai-Digital-Brain-Laboratory/DB-Football.
The pretrain-finetuning paradigm in large-scale sequence models has made significant progress in natural language processing and computer vision tasks. However, such a paradigm is still hindered by several challenges in Reinforcement Learning (RL), including the lack of self-supervised pretraining algorithms based on offline data and efficient fine-tuning/prompt-tuning over unseen downstream tasks. In this work, we explore how prompts can improve sequence modeling-based offline reinforcement learning (offline-RL) algorithms. Firstly, we propose prompt tuning for offline RL, where a context vector sequence is concatenated with the input to guide the conditional policy generation. As such, we can pretrain a model on the offline dataset with self-supervised loss and learn a prompt to guide the policy towards desired actions. Secondly, we extend our framework to Meta-RL settings and propose Contextual Meta Transformer (CMT); CMT leverages the context among different tasks as the prompt to improve generalization on unseen tasks. We conduct extensive experiments across three different offline-RL settings: offline single-agent RL on the D4RL dataset, offline Meta-RL on the MuJoCo benchmark, and offline MARL on the SMAC benchmark. Superior results validate the strong performance, and generality of our methods.
The Elo rating system is widely adopted to evaluate the skills of (chess) game and sports players. Recently it has been also integrated into machine learning algorithms in evaluating the performance of computerised AI agents. However, an accurate estimation of the Elo rating (for the top players) often requires many rounds of competitions, which can be expensive to carry out. In this paper, to improve the sample efficiency of the Elo evaluation (for top players), we propose an efficient online match scheduling algorithm. Specifically, we identify and match the top players through a dueling bandits framework and tailor the bandit algorithm to the gradient-based update of Elo. We show that it reduces the per-step memory and time complexity to constant, compared to the traditional likelihood maximization approaches requiring $O(t)$ time. Our algorithm has a regret guarantee of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$, sublinear in the number of competition rounds and has been extended to the multidimensional Elo ratings for handling intransitive games. We empirically demonstrate that our method achieves superior convergence speed and time efficiency on a variety of gaming tasks.