Advanced long-term earth system forecasting by learning the small-scale nature

Reliable long-term forecast of Earth system dynamics is heavily hampered by instabilities in current AI models during extended autoregressive simulations. These failures often originate from inherent spectral bias, leading to inadequate representation of critical high-frequency, small-scale processes and subsequent uncontrolled error amplification. We present Triton, an AI framework designed to address this fundamental challenge. Inspired by increasing grids to explicitly resolve small scales in numerical models, Triton employs a hierarchical architecture processing information across multiple resolutions to mitigate spectral bias and explicitly model cross-scale dynamics. We demonstrate Triton's superior performance on challenging forecast tasks, achieving stable year-long global temperature forecasts, skillful Kuroshio eddy predictions till 120 days, and high-fidelity turbulence simulations preserving fine-scale structures all without external forcing, with significantly surpassing baseline AI models in long-term stability and accuracy. By effectively suppressing high-frequency error accumulation, Triton offers a promising pathway towards trustworthy AI-driven simulation for climate and earth system science.

The Real Barrier to LLM Agent Usability is Agentic ROI

Large Language Model (LLM) agents represent a promising shift in human-AI interaction, moving beyond passive prompt-response systems to autonomous agents capable of reasoning, planning, and goal-directed action. Despite the widespread application in specialized, high-effort tasks like coding and scientific research, we highlight a critical usability gap in high-demand, mass-market applications. This position paper argues that the limited real-world adoption of LLM agents stems not only from gaps in model capabilities, but also from a fundamental tradeoff between the value an agent can provide and the costs incurred during real-world use. Hence, we call for a shift from solely optimizing model performance to a broader, utility-driven perspective: evaluating agents through the lens of the overall agentic return on investment (Agent ROI). By identifying key factors that determine Agentic ROI--information quality, agent time, and cost--we posit a zigzag development trajectory in optimizing agentic ROI: first scaling up to improve the information quality, then scaling down to minimize the time and cost. We outline the roadmap across different development stages to bridge the current usability gaps, aiming to make LLM agents truly scalable, accessible, and effective in real-world contexts.

ToolACE-DEV: Self-Improving Tool Learning via Decomposition and EVolution

The tool-using capability of large language models (LLMs) enables them to access up-to-date external information and handle complex tasks. Current approaches to enhancing this capability primarily rely on distilling advanced models by data synthesis. However, this method incurs significant costs associated with advanced model usage and often results in data compatibility issues, led by the high discrepancy in the knowledge scope between the advanced model and the target model. To address these challenges, we propose ToolACE-DEV, a self-improving framework for tool learning. First, we decompose the tool-learning objective into sub-tasks that enhance basic tool-making and tool-using abilities. Then, we introduce a self-evolving paradigm that allows lightweight models to self-improve, reducing reliance on advanced LLMs. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach across models of varying scales and architectures.

Instruction-Tuning Data Synthesis from Scratch via Web Reconstruction

The improvement of LLMs' instruction-following capabilities depends critically on the availability of high-quality instruction-response pairs. While existing automatic data synthetic methods alleviate the burden of manual curation, they often rely heavily on either the quality of seed data or strong assumptions about the structure and content of web documents. To tackle these challenges, we propose Web Reconstruction (WebR), a fully automated framework for synthesizing high-quality instruction-tuning (IT) data directly from raw web documents with minimal assumptions. Leveraging the inherent diversity of raw web content, we conceptualize web reconstruction as an instruction-tuning data synthesis task via a novel dual-perspective paradigm--Web as Instruction and Web as Response--where each web document is designated as either an instruction or a response to trigger the reconstruction process. Comprehensive experiments show that datasets generated by WebR outperform state-of-the-art baselines by up to 16.65% across four instruction-following benchmarks. Notably, WebR demonstrates superior compatibility, data efficiency, and scalability, enabling enhanced domain adaptation with minimal effort. The data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/YJiangcm/WebR.

Crowd Comparative Reasoning: Unlocking Comprehensive Evaluations for LLM-as-a-Judge

LLM-as-a-Judge, which generates chain-of-thought (CoT) judgments, has become a widely adopted auto-evaluation method. However, its reliability is compromised by the CoT reasoning's inability to capture comprehensive and deeper details, often leading to incomplete outcomes. Existing methods mainly rely on majority voting or criteria expansion, which is insufficient to address the limitation in CoT. We propose Crowd-based Comparative Evaluation, which introduces additional crowd responses to compare with the candidate responses, thereby exposing deeper and more comprehensive details within the candidate responses. This process effectively guides LLM-as-a-Judge to provide a more detailed CoT judgment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach enhances evaluation reliability, achieving an average accuracy gain of 6.7% across five benchmarks. Moreover, our method produces higher-quality CoTs that facilitate judge distillation and exhibit superior performance in rejection sampling for supervised fine-tuning (SFT), referred to as crowd rejection sampling, thereby enabling more efficient SFT. Our analysis confirms that CoTs generated by ours are more comprehensive and of higher quality, and evaluation accuracy improves as inference scales.

Few-shot_LLM_Synthetic_Data_with_Distribution_Matching

As large language models (LLMs) advance, their ability to perform in-context learning and few-shot language generation has improved significantly. This has spurred using LLMs to produce high-quality synthetic data to enhance the performance of smaller models like online retrievers or weak LLMs. However, LLM-generated synthetic data often differs from the real data in key language attributes (e.g., styles, tones, content proportions, etc.). As a result, mixing these synthetic data directly with real data may distort the original data distribution, potentially hindering performance improvements. To solve this, we introduce SynAlign: a synthetic data generation and filtering framework based on key attribute distribution matching. Before generation, SynAlign employs an uncertainty tracker surrogated by the Gaussian Process model to iteratively select data clusters distinct from selected ones as demonstrations for new data synthesis, facilitating the efficient exploration diversity of the real data. Then, a latent attribute reasoning method is employed: the LLM summarizes linguistic attributes of demonstrations and then synthesizes new data based on them. This approach facilitates synthesizing diverse data with linguistic attributes that appear in real data.After generation, the Maximum Mean Discrepancy is used as the objective function to learn the sampling weight of each synthetic data, ensuring distribution matching with the real data. Our experiments on multiple text prediction tasks show significant performance improvements. We also conducted an online A/B test on an online retriever to demonstrate SynAlign's effectiveness.

RecSys Arena: Pair-wise Recommender System Evaluation with Large Language Models

Evaluating the quality of recommender systems is critical for algorithm design and optimization. Most evaluation methods are computed based on offline metrics for quick algorithm evolution, since online experiments are usually risky and time-consuming. However, offline evaluation usually cannot fully reflect users' preference for the outcome of different recommendation algorithms, and the results may not be consistent with online A/B test. Moreover, many offline metrics such as AUC do not offer sufficient information for comparing the subtle differences between two competitive recommender systems in different aspects, which may lead to substantial performance differences in long-term online serving. Fortunately, due to the strong commonsense knowledge and role-play capability of large language models (LLMs), it is possible to obtain simulated user feedback on offline recommendation results. Motivated by the idea of LLM Chatbot Arena, in this paper we present the idea of RecSys Arena, where the recommendation results given by two different recommender systems in each session are evaluated by an LLM judger to obtain fine-grained evaluation feedback. More specifically, for each sample we use LLM to generate a user profile description based on user behavior history or off-the-shelf profile features, which is used to guide LLM to play the role of this user and evaluate the relative preference for two recommendation results generated by different models. Through extensive experiments on two recommendation datasets in different scenarios, we demonstrate that many different LLMs not only provide general evaluation results that are highly consistent with canonical offline metrics, but also provide rich insight in many subjective aspects. Moreover, it can better distinguish different algorithms with comparable performance in terms of AUC and nDCG.

Predictive Models in Sequential Recommendations: Bridging Performance Laws with Data Quality Insights

Sequential Recommendation (SR) plays a critical role in predicting users' sequential preferences. Despite its growing prominence in various industries, the increasing scale of SR models incurs substantial computational costs and unpredictability, challenging developers to manage resources efficiently. Under this predicament, Scaling Laws have achieved significant success by examining the loss as models scale up. However, there remains a disparity between loss and model performance, which is of greater concern in practical applications. Moreover, as data continues to expand, it incorporates repetitive and inefficient data. In response, we introduce the Performance Law for SR models, which aims to theoretically investigate and model the relationship between model performance and data quality. Specifically, we first fit the HR and NDCG metrics to transformer-based SR models. Subsequently, we propose Approximate Entropy (ApEn) to assess data quality, presenting a more nuanced approach compared to traditional data quantity metrics. Our method enables accurate predictions across various dataset scales and model sizes, demonstrating a strong correlation in large SR models and offering insights into achieving optimal performance for any given model configuration.

Beyond Utility: Evaluating LLM as Recommender

With the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs), recent studies employed LLMs as recommenders to provide personalized information services for distinct users. Despite efforts to improve the accuracy of LLM-based recommendation models, relatively little attention is paid to beyond-utility dimensions. Moreover, there are unique evaluation aspects of LLM-based recommendation models, which have been largely ignored. To bridge this gap, we explore four new evaluation dimensions and propose a multidimensional evaluation framework. The new evaluation dimensions include: 1) history length sensitivity, 2) candidate position bias, 3) generation-involved performance, and 4) hallucinations. All four dimensions have the potential to impact performance, but are largely unnecessary for consideration in traditional systems. Using this multidimensional evaluation framework, along with traditional aspects, we evaluate the performance of seven LLM-based recommenders, with three prompting strategies, comparing them with six traditional models on both ranking and re-ranking tasks on four datasets. We find that LLMs excel at handling tasks with prior knowledge and shorter input histories in the ranking setting, and perform better in the re-ranking setting, beating traditional models across multiple dimensions. However, LLMs exhibit substantial candidate position bias issues, and some models hallucinate non-existent items much more often than others. We intend our evaluation framework and observations to benefit future research on the use of LLMs as recommenders. The code and data are available at https://github.com/JiangDeccc/EvaLLMasRecommender.

StepTool: A Step-grained Reinforcement Learning Framework for Tool Learning in LLMs

Despite having powerful reasoning and inference capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still need external tools to acquire real-time information retrieval or domain-specific expertise to solve complex tasks, which is referred to as tool learning. Existing tool learning methods primarily rely on tuning with expert trajectories, focusing on token-sequence learning from a linguistic perspective. However, there are several challenges: 1) imitating static trajectories limits their ability to generalize to new tasks. 2) even expert trajectories can be suboptimal, and better solution paths may exist. In this work, we introduce StepTool, a novel step-grained reinforcement learning framework to improve tool learning in LLMs. It consists of two components: Step-grained Reward Shaping, which assigns rewards at each tool interaction based on tool invocation success and its contribution to the task, and Step-grained Optimization, which uses policy gradient methods to optimize the model in a multi-step manner. Experimental results demonstrate that StepTool significantly outperforms existing methods in multi-step, tool-based tasks, providing a robust solution for complex task environments. Codes are available at https://github.com/yuyq18/StepTool.