Confidence-Aware Multi-Field Model Calibration

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for ad ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods due to the shift of data distributions and intrinsic model biases. Calibration aims to address this issue by post-processing model predictions, and field-aware calibration can adjust model output on different feature field values to satisfy fine-grained advertising demands. Unfortunately, the observed samples corresponding to certain field values can be too limited to make confident calibrations, which may yield bias amplification and online disturbance. In this paper, we propose a confidence-aware multi-field calibration method, which adaptively adjusts the calibration intensity based on the confidence levels derived from sample statistics. It also utilizes multiple feature fields for joint model calibration with awareness of their importance to mitigate the data sparsity effect of a single field. Extensive offline and online experiments show the superiority of our method in boosting advertising performance and reducing prediction deviations.

Unbiased Delayed Feedback Label Correction for Conversion Rate Prediction

Conversion rate prediction is critical to many online applications such as digital display advertising. To capture dynamic data distribution, industrial systems often require retraining models on recent data daily or weekly. However, the delay of conversion behavior usually leads to incorrect labeling, which is called delayed feedback problem. Existing work may fail to introduce the correct information about false negative samples due to data sparsity and dynamic data distribution. To directly introduce the correct feedback label information, we propose an Unbiased delayed feedback Label Correction framework (ULC), which uses an auxiliary model to correct labels for observed negative feedback samples. Firstly, we theoretically prove that the label-corrected loss is an unbiased estimate of the oracle loss using true labels. Then, as there are no ready training data for label correction, counterfactual labeling is used to construct artificial training data. Furthermore, since counterfactual labeling utilizes only partial training data, we design an embedding-based alternative training method to enhance performance. Comparative experiments on both public and private datasets and detailed analyses show that our proposed approach effectively alleviates the delayed feedback problem and consistently outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods.

Contrastive Multi-view Framework for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction

Accurate customer lifetime value (LTV) prediction can help service providers optimize their marketing policies in customer-centric applications. However, the heavy sparsity of consumption events and the interference of data variance and noise obstruct LTV estimation. Many existing LTV prediction methods directly train a single-view LTV predictor on consumption samples, which may yield inaccurate and even biased knowledge extraction. In this paper, we propose a contrastive multi-view framework for LTV prediction, which is a plug-and-play solution compatible with various backbone models. It synthesizes multiple heterogeneous LTV regressors with complementary knowledge to improve model robustness and captures sample relatedness via contrastive learning to mitigate the dependency on data abundance. Concretely, we use a decomposed scheme that converts the LTV prediction problem into a combination of estimating consumption probability and payment amount. To alleviate the impact of noisy data on model learning, we propose a multi-view framework that jointly optimizes multiple types of regressors with diverse characteristics and advantages to encode and fuse comprehensive knowledge. To fully exploit the potential of limited training samples, we propose a hybrid contrastive learning method to help capture the relatedness between samples in both classification and regression tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on a real-world game LTV prediction dataset and the results validate the effectiveness of our method. We have deployed our solution online in Huawei's mobile game center and achieved 32.26% of total payment amount gains.