Data-driven ensemble prediction of the global ocean

Data-driven models have advanced deterministic ocean forecasting, but extending machine learning to probabilistic global ocean prediction remains an open challenge. Here we introduce FuXi-ONS, the first machine-learning ensemble forecasting system for the global ocean, providing 5-day forecasts on a global 1° grid up to 365 days for sea-surface temperature, sea-surface height, subsurface temperature, salinity and ocean currents. Rather than relying on repeated integration of computationally expensive numerical models, FuXi-ONS learns physically structured perturbations and incorporates an atmospheric encoding module to stabilize long-range forecasts. Evaluated against GLORYS12 reanalysis, FuXi-ONS improves both ensemble-mean skill and probabilistic forecast quality relative to deterministic and noise-perturbed baselines, and shows competitive performance against established seasonal forecast references for SST and Niño3.4 variability, while running orders of magnitude faster than conventional ensemble systems. These results provide a strong example of machine learning advancing a core problem in ocean science, and establish a practical path toward efficient probabilistic ocean forecasting and climate risk assessment.

From Masks to Pixels and Meaning: A New Taxonomy, Benchmark, and Metrics for VLM Image Tampering

Existing tampering detection benchmarks largely rely on object masks, which severely misalign with the true edit signal: many pixels inside a mask are untouched or only trivially modified, while subtle yet consequential edits outside the mask are treated as natural. We reformulate VLM image tampering from coarse region labels to a pixel-grounded, meaning and language-aware task. First, we introduce a taxonomy spanning edit primitives (replace/remove/splice/inpaint/attribute/colorization, etc.) and their semantic class of tampered object, linking low-level changes to high-level understanding. Second, we release a new benchmark with per-pixel tamper maps and paired category supervision to evaluate detection and classification within a unified protocol. Third, we propose a training framework and evaluation metrics that quantify pixel-level correctness with localization to assess confidence or prediction on true edit intensity, and further measure tamper meaning understanding via semantics-aware classification and natural language descriptions for the predicted regions. We also re-evaluate the existing strong segmentation/localization baselines on recent strong tamper detectors and reveal substantial over- and under-scoring using mask-only metrics, and expose failure modes on micro-edits and off-mask changes. Our framework advances the field from masks to pixels, meanings and language descriptions, establishing a rigorous standard for tamper localization, semantic classification and description. Code and benchmark data are available at https://github.com/VILA-Lab/PIXAR.

GigaWorld-Policy: An Efficient Action-Centered World--Action Model

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

Steering Video Diffusion Transformers with Massive Activations

Despite rapid progress in video diffusion transformers, how their internal model signals can be leveraged with minimal overhead to enhance video generation quality remains underexplored. In this work, we study the role of Massive Activations (MAs), which are rare, high-magnitude hidden state spikes in video diffusion transformers. We observed that MAs emerge consistently across all visual tokens, with a clear magnitude hierarchy: first-frame tokens exhibit the largest MA magnitudes, latent-frame boundary tokens (the head and tail portions of each temporal chunk in the latent space) show elevated but slightly lower MA magnitudes than the first frame, and interior tokens within each latent frame remain elevated, yet are comparatively moderate in magnitude. This structured pattern suggests that the model implicitly prioritizes token positions aligned with the temporal chunking in the latent space. Based on this observation, we propose Structured Activation Steering (STAS), a training-free self-guidance-like method that steers MA values at first-frame and boundary tokens toward a scaled global maximum reference magnitude. STAS achieves consistent improvements in terms of video quality and temporal coherence across different text-to-video models, while introducing negligible computational overhead.

AnyCrowd: Instance-Isolated Identity-Pose Binding for Arbitrary Multi-Character Animation

Controllable character animation has advanced rapidly in recent years, yet multi-character animation remains underexplored. As the number of characters grows, multi-character reference encoding becomes more susceptible to latent identity entanglement, resulting in identity bleeding and reduced controllability. Moreover, learning precise and spatio-temporally consistent correspondences between reference identities and driving pose sequences becomes increasingly challenging, often leading to identity-pose mis-binding and inconsistency in generated videos. To address these challenges, we propose AnyCrowd, a Diffusion Transformer (DiT)-based video generation framework capable of scaling to an arbitrary number of characters. Specifically, we first introduce an Instance-Isolated Latent Representation (IILR), which encodes character instances independently prior to DiT processing to prevent latent identity entanglement. Building on this disentangled representation, we further propose Tri-Stage Decoupled Attention (TSDA) to bind identities to driving poses by decomposing self-attention into: (i) instance-aware foreground attention, (ii) background-centric interaction, and (iii) global foreground-background coordination. Furthermore, to mitigate token ambiguity in overlapping regions, an Adaptive Gated Fusion (AGF) module is integrated within TSDA to predict identity-aware weights, effectively fusing competing token groups into identity-consistent representations...

FuXiWeather2: Learning accurate atmospheric state estimation for operational global weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of reanalysis products," thereby retaining their systematic biases and operational latencies. Here, we present FuXiWeather2, a unified end-to-end neural framework for assimilation and forecasting. We align training objectives directly with a combination of real-world observations and reanalysis data, enabling the framework to effectively rectify inherent errors within reanalysis products. To address the distribution shift between NWP-derived background inputs during training and self-generated backgrounds during deployment, we introduce a recursive unrolling training method to enhance the precision and stability of analysis generation. Furthermore, our model is trained on a hybrid dataset of raw and simulated observations to mitigate the impact of observational distribution inconsistency. FuXiWeather2 generates high-resolution ($0.25^{\circ}$) global analysis fields and 10-day forecasts within minutes. The analysis fields surpass the NCEP-GFS across most variables and demonstrate superior accuracy over both ERA5 and the ECMWF-HRES system in lower-tropospheric and surface variables. These high-quality analysis fields drive deterministic forecasts that exceed the skill of the HRES system in 91\% of evaluated metrics. Additionally, its outstanding performance in typhoon track prediction underscores its practical value for rapid response to extreme weather events. The FuXiWeather2 analysis dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728.

3DTCR: A Physics-Based Generative Framework for Vortex-Following 3D Reconstruction to Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging as current numerical and AI-based weather models fail to satisfactorily represent extreme TC structure and intensity. Although intensity time-series forecasting has achieved significant advances, it outputs intensity sequences rather than the three-dimensional inner-core fine-scale structure and physical mechanisms governing TC evolution. High-resolution numerical simulations can capture these features but remain computationally expensive and inefficient for large-scale operational applications. Here we present 3DTCR, a physics-based generative framework combining physical constraints with generative AI efficiency for 3D TC structure reconstruction. Trained on a six-year, 3-km-resolution moving-domain WRF dataset, 3DTCR enables region-adaptive vortex-following reconstruction using conditional Flow Matching(CFM), optimized via latent domain adaptation and two-stage transfer learning. The framework mitigates limitations imposed by low-resolution targets and over-smoothed forecasts, improving the representation of TC inner-core structure and intensity while maintaining track stability. Results demonstrate that 3DTCR outperforms the ECMWF high-resolution forecasting system (ECMWF-HRES) in TC intensity prediction at nearly all lead times up to 5 days and reduces the RMSE of maximum WS10M by 36.5% relative to its FuXi inputs. These findings highlight 3DTCR as a physics-based generative framework that efficiently resolves fine-scale structures at lower computational cost, which may offer a promising avenue for improving TC intensity forecasting.

PA-Net: Precipitation-Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Tail Rainfall Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting is vital for flood warning, agricultural management, and emergency response, yet two bottlenecks persist: the prohibitive cost of modeling million-scale spatiotemporal tokens from multi-variate atmospheric fields, and the extreme long-tailed rainfall distribution where heavy-to-torrential events -- those of greatest societal impact -- constitute fewer than 0.1% of all samples. We propose the Precipitation-Adaptive Network (PA-Net), a Transformer framework whose computational budget is explicitly governed by rainfall intensity. Its core component, Precipitation-Adaptive MoE (PA-MoE), dynamically scales the number of activated experts per token according to local precipitation magnitude, channeling richer representational capacity toward the rare yet critical heavy-rainfall tail. A Dual-Axis Compressed Latent Attention mechanism factorizes spatiotemporal attention with convolutional reduction to manage massive context lengths, while an intensity-aware training protocol progressively amplifies learning signals from extreme-rainfall samples. Experiment on ERA5 demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, with particularly significant gains in heavy-rain and rainstorm regimes.

Spatial-TTT: Streaming Visual-based Spatial Intelligence with Test-Time Training

Humans perceive and understand real-world spaces through a stream of visual observations. Therefore, the ability to streamingly maintain and update spatial evidence from potentially unbounded video streams is essential for spatial intelligence. The core challenge is not simply longer context windows but how spatial information is selected, organized, and retained over time. In this paper, we propose Spatial-TTT towards streaming visual-based spatial intelligence with test-time training (TTT), which adapts a subset of parameters (fast weights) to capture and organize spatial evidence over long-horizon scene videos. Specifically, we design a hybrid architecture and adopt large-chunk updates parallel with sliding-window attention for efficient spatial video processing. To further promote spatial awareness, we introduce a spatial-predictive mechanism applied to TTT layers with 3D spatiotemporal convolution, which encourages the model to capture geometric correspondence and temporal continuity across frames. Beyond architecture design, we construct a dataset with dense 3D spatial descriptions, which guides the model to update its fast weights to memorize and organize global 3D spatial signals in a structured manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Spatial-TTT improves long-horizon spatial understanding and achieves state-of-the-art performance on video spatial benchmarks. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Spatial-TTT.

FutureVLA: Joint Visuomotor Prediction for Vision-Language-Action Model

Predictive foresight is important to intelligent embodied agents. Since the motor execution of a robot is intrinsically constrained by its visual perception of environmental geometry, effectively anticipating the future requires capturing this tightly coupled visuomotor interplay. While recent vision-language-action models attempt to incorporate future guidance, they struggle with this joint modeling. Existing explicit methods divert capacity to task-irrelevant visual details, whereas implicit methods relying on sparse frame pairs disrupt temporal continuity. By heavily relying on visual reconstruction, these methods become visually dominated, entangling static scene context with dynamic action intent. We argue that effective joint visuomotor predictive modeling requires both temporal continuity and visually-conditioned supervision decoupling. To this end, we propose FutureVLA, featuring a novel Joint Visuomotor Predictive Architecture. FutureVLA is designed to extract joint visuomotor embeddings by first decoupling visual and motor information, and then jointly encoding generalized physical priors. Specifically, in the pretraining stage, we leverage heterogeneous manipulation datasets and introduce a Joint Visuomotor Gating mechanism to structurally separate visual state preservation from temporal action modeling. It allows the motor stream to focus on continuous physical dynamics while explicitly querying visual tokens for environmental constraints, yielding highly generalizable joint visuomotor embeddings. Subsequently, in the post-training stage, we employ a latent embeddings alignment strategy, enabling diverse downstream VLA models to internalize these temporal priors without modifying their inference architectures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FutureVLA consistently improves VLA frameworks.