Two-stage WECC Composite Load Modeling: A Double Deep Q-Learning Networks Approach

With the increasing complexity of modern power systems, conventional dynamic load modeling with ZIP and induction motors (ZIP + IM) is no longer adequate to address the current load characteristic transitions. In recent years, the WECC composite load model (WECC CLM) has shown to effectively capture the dynamic load responses over traditional load models in various stability studies and contingency analyses. However, a detailed WECC CLM model typically has a high degree of complexity, with over one hundred parameters, and no systematic approach to identifying and calibrating these parameters. Enabled by the wide deployment of PMUs and advanced deep learning algorithms, proposed here is a double deep Q-learning network (DDQN)-based, two-stage load modeling framework for the WECC CLM. This two-stage method decomposes the complicated WECC CLM for more efficient identification and does not require explicit model details. In the first stage, the DDQN agent determines an accurate load composition. In the second stage, the parameters of the WECC CLM are selected from a group of Monte-Carlo simulations. The set of selected load parameters is expected to best approximate the true transient responses. The proposed framework is verified using an IEEE 39-bus test system on commercial simulation platforms.

A Deep Generative Model for Graphs: Supervised Subset Selection to Create Diverse Realistic Graphs with Applications to Power Networks Synthesis

Creating and modeling real-world graphs is a crucial problem in various applications of engineering, biology, and social sciences; however, learning the distributions of nodes/edges and sampling from them to generate realistic graphs is still challenging. Moreover, generating a diverse set of synthetic graphs that all imitate a real network is not addressed. In this paper, the novel problem of creating diverse synthetic graphs is solved. First, we devise the deep supervised subset selection (DeepS3) algorithm; Given a ground-truth set of data points, DeepS3 selects a diverse subset of all items (i.e. data points) that best represent the items in the ground-truth set. Furthermore, we propose the deep graph representation recurrent network (GRRN) as a novel generative model that learns a probabilistic representation of a real weighted graph. Training the GRRN, we generate a large set of synthetic graphs that are likely to follow the same features and adjacency patterns as the original one. Incorporating GRRN with DeepS3, we select a diverse subset of generated graphs that best represent the behaviors of the real graph (i.e. our ground-truth). We apply our model to the novel problem of power grid synthesis, where a synthetic power network is created with the same physical/geometric properties as a real power system without revealing the real locations of the substations (nodes) and the lines (edges), since such data is confidential. Experiments on the Synthetic Power Grid Data Set show accurate synthetic networks that follow similar structural and spatial properties as the real power grid.

Convolutional Graph Auto-encoder: A Deep Generative Neural Architecture for Probabilistic Spatio-temporal Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Machine Learning on graph-structured data is an important and omnipresent task for a vast variety of applications including anomaly detection and dynamic network analysis. In this paper, a deep generative model is introduced to capture continuous probability densities corresponding to the nodes of an arbitrary graph. In contrast to all learning formulations in the area of discriminative pattern recognition, we propose a scalable generative optimization/algorithm theoretically proved to capture distributions at the nodes of a graph. Our model is able to generate samples from the probability densities learned at each node. This probabilistic data generation model, i.e. convolutional graph auto-encoder (CGAE), is devised based on the localized first-order approximation of spectral graph convolutions, deep learning, and the variational Bayesian inference. We apply our CGAE to a new problem, the spatio-temporal probabilistic solar irradiance prediction. Multiple solar radiation measurement sites in a wide area in northern states of the US are modeled as an undirected graph. Using our proposed model, the distribution of future irradiance given historical radiation observations is estimated for every site/node. Numerical results on the National Solar Radiation Database show state-of-the-art performance for probabilistic radiation prediction on geographically distributed irradiance data in terms of reliability, sharpness, and continuous ranked probability score.

Energy Disaggregation via Deep Temporal Dictionary Learning

This paper addresses the energy disaggregation problem, i.e. decomposing the electricity signal of a whole home to its operating devices. First, we cast the problem as a dictionary learning (DL) problem where the key electricity patterns representing consumption behaviors are extracted for each device and stored in a dictionary matrix. The electricity signal of each device is then modeled by a linear combination of such patterns with sparse coefficients that determine the contribution of each device in the total electricity. Although popular, the classic DL approach is prone to high error in real-world applications including energy disaggregation, as it merely finds linear dictionaries. Moreover, this method lacks a recurrent structure; thus, it is unable to leverage the temporal structure of energy signals. Motivated by such shortcomings, we propose a novel optimization program where the dictionary and its sparse coefficients are optimized simultaneously with a deep neural model extracting powerful nonlinear features from the energy signals. A long short-term memory auto-encoder (LSTM-AE) is proposed with tunable time dependent states to capture the temporal behavior of energy signals for each device. We learn the dictionary in the space of temporal features captured by the LSTM-AE rather than the original space of the energy signals; hence, in contrast to the traditional DL, here, a nonlinear dictionary is learned using powerful temporal features extracted from our deep model. Real experiments on the publicly available Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD) show significant improvement compared to the state-of-the-art methodologies in terms of the disaggregation accuracy and F-score metrics.

A Multi-model Combination Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting

Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) approach for short-term probabilistic wind generation forecasting is proposed in this paper to exploit the advantages of different forecasting models. The proposed approach can combine different forecasting models those provide different kinds of probability density functions to improve the probabilistic forecast accuracy. Three probabilistic forecasting models based on the sparse Bayesian learning, kernel density estimation and beta distribution fitting are used to form the combined model. The parameters of the MMC model are solved based on Bayesian framework. Numerical tests illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed MMC approach.