TimeSqueeze: Dynamic Patching for Efficient Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based time series foundation models face a fundamental trade-off in choice of tokenization: point-wise embeddings preserve temporal fidelity but scale poorly with sequence length, whereas fixed-length patching improves efficiency by imposing uniform boundaries that may disrupt natural transitions and blur informative local dynamics. In order to address these limitations, we introduce TimeSqueeze, a dynamic patching mechanism that adaptively selects patch boundaries within each sequence based on local signal complexity. TimeSqueeze first applies a lightweight state-space encoder to extract full-resolution point-wise features, then performs content-aware segmentation by allocating short patches to information-dense regions and long patches to smooth or redundant segments. This variable-resolution compression preserves critical temporal structure while substantially reducing the token sequence presented to the Transformer backbone. Specifically for large-scale pretraining, TimeSqueeze attains up to 20x faster convergence and 8x higher data efficiency compared to equivalent point-token baselines. Experiments across long-horizon forecasting benchmarks show that TimeSqueeze consistently outperforms comparable architectures that use either point-wise tokenization or fixed-size patching.

Agentic Critical Training

Training large language models (LLMs) as autonomous agents often begins with imitation learning, but it only teaches agents what to do without understanding why: agents never contrast successful actions against suboptimal alternatives and thus lack awareness of action quality. Recent approaches attempt to address this by introducing self-reflection supervision derived from contrasts between expert and alternative actions. However, the training paradigm fundamentally remains imitation learning: the model imitates pre-constructed reflection text rather than learning to reason autonomously. We propose Agentic Critical Training (ACT), a reinforcement learning paradigm that trains agents to identify the better action among alternatives. By rewarding whether the model's judgment is correct, ACT drives the model to autonomously develop reasoning about action quality, producing genuine self-reflection rather than imitating it. Across three challenging agent benchmarks, ACT consistently improves agent performance when combined with different post-training methods. It achieves an average improvement of 5.07 points over imitation learning and 4.62 points over reinforcement learning. Compared to approaches that inject reflection capability through knowledge distillation, ACT also demonstrates clear advantages, yielding an average improvement of 2.42 points. Moreover, ACT enables strong out-of-distribution generalization on agentic benchmarks and improves performance on general reasoning benchmarks without any reasoning-specific training data, highlighting the value of our method. These results suggest that ACT is a promising path toward developing more reflective and capable LLM agents.

GATES: Self-Distillation under Privileged Context with Consensus Gating

We study self-distillation in settings where supervision is unreliable: there are no ground truth labels, verifiable rewards, or external graders to evaluate answers. We focus on document-grounded question answering with asymmetric context, where a single model serves as both tutor (with access to a relevant source document during training) and student (answering from the question alone at test time). Rather than assuming tutor correctness, we derive supervision online from tutor consensus by sampling multiple document-grounded reasoning traces and using agreement to gate learning. Conditioned on this reliability signal, we distill knowledge through full tutor reasoning trajectories (not just final answers), providing a dense and stable learning signal. Empirically, this consensus-gated trajectory distillation substantially improves transfer to the document-free student. Held-out in-domain accuracy under asymmetric evaluation improves from 46.0\% to 62.0\%, and average (maj@8) accuracy on public document-free math benchmarks improves from 20.2\% to 35.4\%.

EgoScale: Scaling Dexterous Manipulation with Diverse Egocentric Human Data

Human behavior is among the most scalable sources of data for learning physical intelligence, yet how to effectively leverage it for dexterous manipulation remains unclear. While prior work demonstrates human to robot transfer in constrained settings, it is unclear whether large scale human data can support fine grained, high degree of freedom dexterous manipulation. We present EgoScale, a human to dexterous manipulation transfer framework built on large scale egocentric human data. We train a Vision Language Action (VLA) model on over 20,854 hours of action labeled egocentric human video, more than 20 times larger than prior efforts, and uncover a log linear scaling law between human data scale and validation loss. This validation loss strongly correlates with downstream real robot performance, establishing large scale human data as a predictable supervision source. Beyond scale, we introduce a simple two stage transfer recipe: large scale human pretraining followed by lightweight aligned human robot mid training. This enables strong long horizon dexterous manipulation and one shot task adaptation with minimal robot supervision. Our final policy improves average success rate by 54% over a no pretraining baseline using a 22 DoF dexterous robotic hand, and transfers effectively to robots with lower DoF hands, indicating that large scale human motion provides a reusable, embodiment agnostic motor prior.

Provably Efficient Algorithms for S- and Non-Rectangular Robust MDPs with General Parameterization

We study robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) with general policy parameterization under s-rectangular and non-rectangular uncertainty sets. Prior work is largely limited to tabular policies, and hence either lacks sample complexity guarantees or incurs high computational cost. Our method reduces the average reward RMDPs to entropy-regularized discounted robust MDPs, restoring strong duality and enabling tractable equilibrium computation. We prove novel Lipschitz and Lipschitz-smoothness properties for general policy parameterizations that extends to infinite state spaces. To address infinite-horizon gradient estimation, we introduce a multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimator with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2})$ sample complexity, a factor of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2})$ improvement over prior work. Building on this, we design a projected gradient descent algorithm for s-rectangular uncertainty ($\mathcal{O}(ε^{-5})$) and a Frank--Wolfe algorithm for non-rectangular uncertainty ($\mathcal{O}(ε^{-4})$ discounted, $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-10.5})$ average reward), significantly improving prior results in both the discounted setting and average reward setting. Our work is the first one to provide sample complexity guarantees for RMDPs with general policy parameterization beyond $(s, a)$-rectangularity. It also provides the first such guarantees in the average reward setting and improves existing bounds for discounted robust MDPs.

Safety Recovery in Reasoning Models Is Only a Few Early Steering Steps Away

Reinforcement learning (RL) based post-training for explicit chain-of-thought (e.g., GRPO) improves the reasoning ability of multimodal large-scale reasoning models (MLRMs). But recent evidence shows that it can simultaneously degrade safety alignment and increase jailbreak success rates. We propose SafeThink, a lightweight inference-time defense that treats safety recovery as a satisficing constraint rather than a maximization objective. SafeThink monitors the evolving reasoning trace with a safety reward model and conditionally injects an optimized short corrective prefix ("Wait, think safely") only when the safety threshold is violated. In our evaluations across six open-source MLRMs and four jailbreak benchmarks (JailbreakV-28K, Hades, FigStep, and MM-SafetyBench), SafeThink reduces attack success rates by 30-60% (e.g., LlamaV-o1: 63.33% to 5.74% on JailbreakV-28K, R1-Onevision: 69.07% to 5.65% on Hades) while preserving reasoning performance (MathVista accuracy: 65.20% to 65.00%). A key empirical finding from our experiments is that safety recovery is often only a few steering steps away: intervening in the first 1-3 reasoning steps typically suffices to redirect the full generation toward safe completions.

Parallel-Probe: Towards Efficient Parallel Thinking via 2D Probing

Parallel thinking has emerged as a promising paradigm for reasoning, yet it imposes significant computational burdens. Existing efficiency methods primarily rely on local, per-trajectory signals and lack principled mechanisms to exploit global dynamics across parallel branches. We introduce 2D probing, an interface that exposes the width-depth dynamics of parallel thinking by periodically eliciting intermediate answers from all branches. Our analysis reveals three key insights: non-monotonic scaling across width-depth allocations, heterogeneous reasoning branch lengths, and early stabilization of global consensus. Guided by these insights, we introduce $\textbf{Parallel-Probe}$, a training-free controller designed to optimize online parallel thinking. Parallel-Probe employs consensus-based early stopping to regulate reasoning depth and deviation-based branch pruning to dynamically adjust width. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks and multiple models demonstrate that Parallel-Probe establishes a superior Pareto frontier for test-time scaling. Compared to standard majority voting, it reduces sequential tokens by up to $\textbf{35.8}$% and total token cost by over $\textbf{25.8}$% while maintaining competitive accuracy.

TSRBench: A Comprehensive Multi-task Multi-modal Time Series Reasoning Benchmark for Generalist Models

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Token-Level LLM Collaboration via FusionRoute

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strengths across diverse domains. However, achieving strong performance across these domains with a single general-purpose model typically requires scaling to sizes that are prohibitively expensive to train and deploy. On the other hand, while smaller domain-specialized models are much more efficient, they struggle to generalize beyond their training distributions. To address this dilemma, we propose FusionRoute, a robust and effective token-level multi-LLM collaboration framework in which a lightweight router simultaneously (i) selects the most suitable expert at each decoding step and (ii) contributes a complementary logit that refines or corrects the selected expert's next-token distribution via logit addition. Unlike existing token-level collaboration methods that rely solely on fixed expert outputs, we provide a theoretical analysis showing that pure expert-only routing is fundamentally limited: unless strong global coverage assumptions hold, it cannot in general realize the optimal decoding policy. By augmenting expert selection with a trainable complementary generator, FusionRoute expands the effective policy class and enables recovery of optimal value functions under mild conditions. Empirically, across both Llama-3 and Gemma-2 families and diverse benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, and instruction following, FusionRoute outperforms both sequence- and token-level collaboration, model merging, and direct fine-tuning, while remaining competitive with domain experts on their respective tasks.

PersonaLedger: Generating Realistic Financial Transactions with Persona Conditioned LLMs and Rule Grounded Feedback

Strict privacy regulations limit access to real transaction data, slowing open research in financial AI. Synthetic data can bridge this gap, but existing generators do not jointly achieve behavioral diversity and logical groundedness. Rule-driven simulators rely on hand-crafted workflows and shallow stochasticity, which miss the richness of human behavior. Learning-based generators such as GANs capture correlations yet often violate hard financial constraints and still require training on private data. We introduce PersonaLedger, a generation engine that uses a large language model conditioned on rich user personas to produce diverse transaction streams, coupled with an expert configurable programmatic engine that maintains correctness. The LLM and engine interact in a closed loop: after each event, the engine updates the user state, enforces financial rules, and returns a context aware "nextprompt" that guides the LLM toward feasible next actions. With this engine, we create a public dataset of 30 million transactions from 23,000 users and a benchmark suite with two tasks, illiquidity classification and identity theft segmentation. PersonaLedger offers a realistic, privacy preserving resource that supports rigorous evaluation of forecasting and anomaly detection models. PersonaLedger offers the community a rich, realistic, and privacy preserving resource -- complete with code, rules, and generation logs -- to accelerate innovation in financial AI and enable rigorous, reproducible evaluation.