SciPredict: Can LLMs Predict the Outcomes of Scientific Experiments in Natural Sciences?

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is $\approx$20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only $\approx$20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from $\approx$5% to $\approx$80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

Hold Onto That Thought: Assessing KV Cache Compression On Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance on long-context tasks, but are often bottlenecked by memory constraints. Namely, the KV cache, which is used to significantly speed up attention computations, grows linearly with context length. A suite of compression algorithms has been introduced to alleviate cache growth by evicting unimportant tokens. However, several popular strategies are targeted towards the prefill phase, i.e., processing long prompt context, and their performance is rarely assessed on reasoning tasks requiring long decoding. In particular, short but complex prompts, such as those in benchmarks like GSM8K and MATH500, often benefit from multi-step reasoning and self-reflection, resulting in thinking sequences thousands of tokens long. In this work, we benchmark the performance of several popular compression strategies on long-reasoning tasks. For the non-reasoning Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, we determine that no singular strategy fits all, and that performance is heavily influenced by dataset type. However, we discover that H2O and our decoding-enabled variant of SnapKV are dominant strategies for reasoning models, indicating the utility of heavy-hitter tracking for reasoning traces. We also find that eviction strategies at low budgets can produce longer reasoning traces, revealing a tradeoff between cache size and inference costs.

AegisLLM: Scaling Agentic Systems for Self-Reflective Defense in LLM Security

We introduce AegisLLM, a cooperative multi-agent defense against adversarial attacks and information leakage. In AegisLLM, a structured workflow of autonomous agents - orchestrator, deflector, responder, and evaluator - collaborate to ensure safe and compliant LLM outputs, while self-improving over time through prompt optimization. We show that scaling agentic reasoning system at test-time - both by incorporating additional agent roles and by leveraging automated prompt optimization (such as DSPy)- substantially enhances robustness without compromising model utility. This test-time defense enables real-time adaptability to evolving attacks, without requiring model retraining. Comprehensive evaluations across key threat scenarios, including unlearning and jailbreaking, demonstrate the effectiveness of AegisLLM. On the WMDP unlearning benchmark, AegisLLM achieves near-perfect unlearning with only 20 training examples and fewer than 300 LM calls. For jailbreaking benchmarks, we achieve 51% improvement compared to the base model on StrongReject, with false refusal rates of only 7.9% on PHTest compared to 18-55% for comparable methods. Our results highlight the advantages of adaptive, agentic reasoning over static defenses, establishing AegisLLM as a strong runtime alternative to traditional approaches based on model modifications. Code is available at https://github.com/zikuicai/aegisllm