Transferable and Adaptable Driving Behavior Prediction

While autonomous vehicles still struggle to solve challenging situations during on-road driving, humans have long mastered the essence of driving with efficient, transferable, and adaptable driving capability. By mimicking humans' cognition model and semantic understanding during driving, we propose HATN, a hierarchical framework to generate high-quality, transferable, and adaptable predictions for driving behaviors in multi-agent dense-traffic environments. Our hierarchical method consists of a high-level intention identification policy and a low-level trajectory generation policy. We introduce a novel semantic sub-task definition and generic state representation for each sub-task. With these techniques, the hierarchical framework is transferable across different driving scenarios. Besides, our model is able to capture variations of driving behaviors among individuals and scenarios by an online adaptation module. We demonstrate our algorithms in the task of trajectory prediction for real traffic data at intersections and roundabouts from the INTERACTION dataset. Through extensive numerical studies, it is evident that our method significantly outperformed other methods in terms of prediction accuracy, transferability, and adaptability. Pushing the state-of-the-art performance by a considerable margin, we also provide a cognitive view of understanding the driving behavior behind such improvement. We highlight that in the future, more research attention and effort are deserved for transferability and adaptability. It is not only due to the promising performance elevation of prediction and planning algorithms, but more fundamentally, they are crucial for the scalable and general deployment of autonomous vehicles.

Towards General and Efficient Active Learning

Active learning aims to select the most informative samples to exploit limited annotation budgets. Most existing work follows a cumbersome pipeline by repeating the time-consuming model training and batch data selection multiple times on each dataset separately. We challenge this status quo by proposing a novel general and efficient active learning (GEAL) method in this paper. Utilizing a publicly available model pre-trained on a large dataset, our method can conduct data selection processes on different datasets with a single-pass inference of the same model. To capture the subtle local information inside images, we propose knowledge clusters that are easily extracted from the intermediate features of the pre-trained network. Instead of the troublesome batch selection strategy, all data samples are selected in one go by performing K-Center-Greedy in the fine-grained knowledge cluster level. The entire procedure only requires single-pass model inference without training or supervision, making our method notably superior to prior arts in terms of time complexity by up to hundreds of times. Extensive experiments widely demonstrate the promising performance of our method on object detection, semantic segmentation, depth estimation, and image classification.

Causal-based Time Series Domain Generalization for Vehicle Intention Prediction

Accurately predicting possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles. Since autonomous vehicles need to navigate in dynamically changing environments, they are expected to make accurate predictions regardless of where they are and what driving circumstances they encountered. Therefore, generalization capability to unseen domains is crucial for prediction models when autonomous vehicles are deployed in the real world. In this paper, we aim to address the domain generalization problem for vehicle intention prediction tasks and a causal-based time series domain generalization (CTSDG) model is proposed. We construct a structural causal model for vehicle intention prediction tasks to learn an invariant representation of input driving data for domain generalization. We further integrate a recurrent latent variable model into our structural causal model to better capture temporal latent dependencies from time-series input data. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated via real-world driving data. We demonstrate that our proposed method has consistent improvement on prediction accuracy compared to other state-of-the-art domain generalization and behavior prediction methods.

Exploring Social Posterior Collapse in Variational Autoencoder for Interaction Modeling

Multi-agent behavior modeling and trajectory forecasting are crucial for the safe navigation of autonomous agents in interactive scenarios. Variational Autoencoder (VAE) has been widely applied in multi-agent interaction modeling to generate diverse behavior and learn a low-dimensional representation for interacting systems. However, existing literature did not formally discuss if a VAE-based model can properly encode interaction into its latent space. In this work, we argue that one of the typical formulations of VAEs in multi-agent modeling suffers from an issue we refer to as social posterior collapse, i.e., the model is prone to ignoring historical social context when predicting the future trajectory of an agent. It could cause significant prediction errors and poor generalization performance. We analyze the reason behind this under-explored phenomenon and propose several measures to tackle it. Afterward, we implement the proposed framework and experiment on real-world datasets for multi-agent trajectory prediction. In particular, we propose a novel sparse graph attention message-passing (sparse-GAMP) layer, which helps us detect social posterior collapse in our experiments. In the experiments, we verify that social posterior collapse indeed occurs. Also, the proposed measures are effective in alleviating the issue. As a result, the model attains better generalization performance when historical social context is informative for prediction.

Dealing with the Unknown: Pessimistic Offline Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been shown effective in domains where the agent can learn policies by actively interacting with its operating environment. However, if we change the RL scheme to offline setting where the agent can only update its policy via static datasets, one of the major issues in offline reinforcement learning emerges, i.e. distributional shift. We propose a Pessimistic Offline Reinforcement Learning (PessORL) algorithm to actively lead the agent back to the area where it is familiar by manipulating the value function. We focus on problems caused by out-of-distribution (OOD) states, and deliberately penalize high values at states that are absent in the training dataset, so that the learned pessimistic value function lower bounds the true value anywhere within the state space. We evaluate the PessORL algorithm on various benchmark tasks, where we show that our method gains better performance by explicitly handling OOD states, when compared to those methods merely considering OOD actions.

Hierarchical Adaptable and Transferable Networks (HATN) for Driving Behavior Prediction

When autonomous vehicles still struggle to solve challenging situations during on-road driving, humans have long mastered the essence of driving with efficient transferable and adaptable driving capability. By mimicking humans' cognition model and semantic understanding during driving, we present HATN, a hierarchical framework to generate high-quality driving behaviors in multi-agent dense-traffic environments. Our method hierarchically consists of a high-level intention identification and low-level action generation policy. With the semantic sub-task definition and generic state representation, the hierarchical framework is transferable across different driving scenarios. Besides, our model is also able to capture variations of driving behaviors among individuals and scenarios by an online adaptation module. We demonstrate our algorithms in the task of trajectory prediction for real traffic data at intersections and roundabouts, where we conducted extensive studies of the proposed method and demonstrated how our method outperformed other methods in terms of prediction accuracy and transferability.

Iterative Imitation Policy Improvement for Interactive Autonomous Driving

We propose an imitation learning system for autonomous driving in urban traffic with interactions. We train a Behavioral Cloning~(BC) policy to imitate driving behavior collected from the real urban traffic, and apply the data aggregation algorithm to improve its performance iteratively. Applying data aggregation in this setting comes with two challenges. The first challenge is that it is expensive and dangerous to collect online rollout data in the real urban traffic. Creating similar traffic scenarios in simulator like CARLA for online rollout collection can also be difficult. Instead, we propose to create a weak simulator from the training dataset, in which all the surrounding vehicles follow the data trajectory provided by the dataset. We find that the collected online data in such a simulator can still be used to improve BC policy's performance. The second challenge is the tedious and time-consuming process of human labelling process during online rollout. To solve this problem, we use an A$^*$ planner as a pseudo-expert to provide expert-like demonstration. We validate our proposed imitation learning system in the real urban traffic scenarios. The experimental results show that our system can significantly improve the performance of baseline BC policy.

Constrained Iterative LQG for Real-Time Chance-Constrained Gaussian Belief Space Planning

Motion planning under uncertainty is of significant importance for safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles. Such systems have to satisfy necessary constraints (e.g., collision avoidance) with potential uncertainties coming from either disturbed system dynamics or noisy sensor measurements. However, existing motion planning methods cannot efficiently find the robust optimal solutions under general nonlinear and non-convex settings. In this paper, we formulate such problem as chance-constrained Gaussian belief space planning and propose the constrained iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian (CILQG) algorithm as a real-time solution. In this algorithm, we iteratively calculate a Gaussian approximation of the belief and transform the chance-constraints. We evaluate the effectiveness of our method in simulations of autonomous driving planning tasks with static and dynamic obstacles. Results show that CILQG can handle uncertainties more appropriately and has faster computation time than baseline methods.

A Microscopic Pandemic Simulator for Pandemic Prediction Using Scalable Million-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Microscopic epidemic models are powerful tools for government policy makers to predict and simulate epidemic outbreaks, which can capture the impact of individual behaviors on the macroscopic phenomenon. However, existing models only consider simple rule-based individual behaviors, limiting their applicability. This paper proposes a deep-reinforcement-learning-powered microscopic model named Microscopic Pandemic Simulator (MPS). By replacing rule-based agents with rational agents whose behaviors are driven to maximize rewards, the MPS provides a better approximation of real world dynamics. To efficiently simulate with massive amounts of agents in MPS, we propose Scalable Million-Agent DQN (SMADQN). The MPS allows us to efficiently evaluate the impact of different government strategies. This paper first calibrates the MPS against real-world data in Allegheny, US, then demonstratively evaluates two government strategies: information disclosure and quarantine. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. As a broad impact, this paper provides novel insights for the application of DRL in large scale agent-based networks such as economic and social networks.