Utilizing Strategic Pre-training to Reduce Overfitting: Baguan -- A Pre-trained Weather Forecasting Model

Weather forecasting has long posed a significant challenge for humanity. While recent AI-based models have surpassed traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in global forecasting tasks, overfitting remains a critical issue due to the limited availability of real-world weather data spanning only a few decades. Unlike fields like computer vision or natural language processing, where data abundance can mitigate overfitting, weather forecasting demands innovative strategies to address this challenge with existing data. In this paper, we explore pre-training methods for weather forecasting, finding that selecting an appropriately challenging pre-training task introduces locality bias, effectively mitigating overfitting and enhancing performance. We introduce Baguan, a novel data-driven model for medium-range weather forecasting, built on a Siamese Autoencoder pre-trained in a self-supervised manner and fine-tuned for different lead times. Experimental results show that Baguan outperforms traditional methods, delivering more accurate forecasts. Additionally, the pre-trained Baguan demonstrates robust overfitting control and excels in downstream tasks, such as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) modeling and regional forecasting, after fine-tuning.

Enhancing Embedding Representation Stability in Recommendation Systems with Semantic ID

The exponential growth of online content has posed significant challenges to ID-based models in industrial recommendation systems, ranging from extremely high cardinality and dynamically growing ID space, to highly skewed engagement distributions, to prediction instability as a result of natural id life cycles (e.g, the birth of new IDs and retirement of old IDs). To address these issues, many systems rely on random hashing to handle the id space and control the corresponding model parameters (i.e embedding table). However, this approach introduces data pollution from multiple ids sharing the same embedding, leading to degraded model performance and embedding representation instability. This paper examines these challenges and introduces Semantic ID prefix ngram, a novel token parameterization technique that significantly improves the performance of the original Semantic ID. Semantic ID prefix ngram creates semantically meaningful collisions by hierarchically clustering items based on their content embeddings, as opposed to random assignments. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that Semantic ID prefix ngram not only addresses embedding instability but also significantly improves tail id modeling, reduces overfitting, and mitigates representation shifts. We further highlight the advantages of Semantic ID prefix ngram in attention-based models that contextualize user histories, showing substantial performance improvements. We also report our experience of integrating Semantic ID into Meta production Ads Ranking system, leading to notable performance gains and enhanced prediction stability in live deployments.

External Large Foundation Model: How to Efficiently Serve Trillions of Parameters for Online Ads Recommendation

Ads recommendation is a prominent service of online advertising systems and has been actively studied. Recent studies indicate that scaling-up and advanced design of the recommendation model can bring significant performance improvement. However, with a larger model scale, such prior studies have a significantly increasing gap from industry as they often neglect two fundamental challenges in industrial-scale applications. First, training and inference budgets are restricted for the model to be served, exceeding which may incur latency and impair user experience. Second, large-volume data arrive in a streaming mode with data distributions dynamically shifting, as new users/ads join and existing users/ads leave the system. We propose the External Large Foundation Model (ExFM) framework to address the overlooked challenges. Specifically, we develop external distillation and a data augmentation system (DAS) to control the computational cost of training/inference while maintaining high performance. We design the teacher in a way like a foundation model (FM) that can serve multiple students as vertical models (VMs) to amortize its building cost. We propose Auxiliary Head and Student Adapter to mitigate the data distribution gap between FM and VMs caused by the streaming data issue. Comprehensive experiments on internal industrial-scale applications and public datasets demonstrate significant performance gain by ExFM.

Maximizing the Impact of Deep Learning on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Forecasting: The Essential Role of Optimization

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6 weeks, remains challenging due to the chaotic and sparse atmospheric signals at this interval. Even state-of-the-art deep learning models struggle to outperform simple climatology models in this domain. This paper identifies that optimization, instead of network structure, could be the root cause of this performance gap, and then we develop a novel multi-stage optimization strategy to close the gap. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate that our multi-stage optimization approach significantly improves key skill metrics, PCC and TCC, while utilizing the same backbone structure, surpassing the state-of-the-art NWP systems (ECMWF-S2S) by over \textbf{19-91\%}. Our research contests the recent study that direct forecasting outperforms rolling forecasting for S2S tasks. Through theoretical analysis, we propose that the underperformance of rolling forecasting may arise from the accumulation of Jacobian matrix products during training. Our multi-stage framework can be viewed as a form of teacher forcing to address this issue. Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Baguan-S2S-23E7/}

A Collaborative Ensemble Framework for CTR Prediction

Recent advances in foundation models have established scaling laws that enable the development of larger models to achieve enhanced performance, motivating extensive research into large-scale recommendation models. However, simply increasing the model size in recommendation systems, even with large amounts of data, does not always result in the expected performance improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Collaborative Ensemble Training Network (CETNet), to leverage multiple distinct models, each with its own embedding table, to capture unique feature interaction patterns. Unlike naive model scaling, our approach emphasizes diversity and collaboration through collaborative learning, where models iteratively refine their predictions. To dynamically balance contributions from each model, we introduce a confidence-based fusion mechanism using general softmax, where model confidence is computed via negation entropy. This design ensures that more confident models have a greater influence on the final prediction while benefiting from the complementary strengths of other models. We validate our framework on three public datasets (AmazonElectronics, TaobaoAds, and KuaiVideo) as well as a large-scale industrial dataset from Meta, demonstrating its superior performance over individual models and state-of-the-art baselines. Additionally, we conduct further experiments on the Criteo and Avazu datasets to compare our method with the multi-embedding paradigm. Our results show that our framework achieves comparable or better performance with smaller embedding sizes, offering a scalable and efficient solution for CTR prediction tasks.

$α$-DPO: Adaptive Reward Margin is What Direct Preference Optimization Needs

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and intentions is crucial for their utility, honesty, and safety. Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a popular approach to achieve this alignment, but it faces challenges in computational efficiency and training stability. Recent methods like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and Simple Preference Optimization (SimPO) have proposed offline alternatives to RLHF, simplifying the process by reparameterizing the reward function. However, DPO depends on a potentially suboptimal reference model, and SimPO's assumption of a fixed target reward margin may lead to suboptimal decisions in diverse data settings. In this work, we propose $\alpha$-DPO, an adaptive preference optimization algorithm designed to address these limitations by introducing a dynamic reward margin. Specifically, $\alpha$-DPO employs an adaptive preference distribution, balancing the policy model and the reference model to achieve personalized reward margins. We provide theoretical guarantees for $\alpha$-DPO, demonstrating its effectiveness as a surrogate optimization objective and its ability to balance alignment and diversity through KL divergence control. Empirical evaluations on AlpacaEval 2 and Arena-Hard show that $\alpha$-DPO consistently outperforms DPO and SimPO across various model settings, establishing it as a robust approach for fine-tuning LLMs. Our method achieves significant improvements in win rates, highlighting its potential as a powerful tool for LLM alignment. The code is available at https://github.com/junkangwu/alpha-DPO

Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecasting

In the field of weather forecasting, traditional models often grapple with discretization errors and time-dependent source discrepancies, which limit their predictive performance. In this paper, we present WeatherODE, a novel one-stage, physics-driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model designed to enhance weather forecasting accuracy. By leveraging wave equation theory and integrating a time-dependent source model, WeatherODE effectively addresses the challenges associated with time-discretization error and dynamic atmospheric processes. Moreover, we design a CNN-ViT-CNN sandwich structure, facilitating efficient learning dynamics tailored for distinct yet interrelated tasks with varying optimization biases in advection equation estimation. Through rigorous experiments, WeatherODE demonstrates superior performance in both global and regional weather forecasting tasks, outperforming recent state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins of over 40.0\% and 31.8\% in root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/WeatherODE}.

MME-RealWorld: Could Your Multimodal LLM Challenge High-Resolution Real-World Scenarios that are Difficult for Humans?

Comprehensive evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has recently garnered widespread attention in the research community. However, we observe that existing benchmarks present several common barriers that make it difficult to measure the significant challenges that models face in the real world, including: 1) small data scale leads to a large performance variance; 2) reliance on model-based annotations results in restricted data quality; 3) insufficient task difficulty, especially caused by the limited image resolution. To tackle these issues, we introduce MME-RealWorld. Specifically, we collect more than $300$K images from public datasets and the Internet, filtering $13,366$ high-quality images for annotation. This involves the efforts of professional $25$ annotators and $7$ experts in MLLMs, contributing to $29,429$ question-answer pairs that cover $43$ subtasks across $5$ real-world scenarios, extremely challenging even for humans. As far as we know, MME-RealWorld is the largest manually annotated benchmark to date, featuring the highest resolution and a targeted focus on real-world applications. We further conduct a thorough evaluation involving $28$ prominent MLLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Our results show that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach $60\%$ accuracy. The challenges of perceiving high-resolution images and understanding complex real-world scenarios remain urgent issues to be addressed. The data and evaluation code are released at https://mme-realworld.github.io/ .

RAG-Optimized Tibetan Tourism LLMs: Enhancing Accuracy and Personalization

With the development of the modern social economy, tourism has become an important way to meet people's spiritual needs, bringing development opportunities to the tourism industry. However, existing large language models (LLMs) face challenges in personalized recommendation capabilities and the generation of content that can sometimes produce hallucinations. This study proposes an optimization scheme for Tibet tourism LLMs based on retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) technology. By constructing a database of tourist viewpoints and processing the data using vectorization techniques, we have significantly improved retrieval accuracy. The application of RAG technology effectively addresses the hallucination problem in content generation. The optimized model shows significant improvements in fluency, accuracy, and relevance of content generation. This research demonstrates the potential of RAG technology in the standardization of cultural tourism information and data analysis, providing theoretical and technical support for the development of intelligent cultural tourism service systems.

S$^3$Attention: Improving Long Sequence Attention with Smoothed Skeleton Sketching

Attention based models have achieved many remarkable breakthroughs in numerous applications. However, the quadratic complexity of Attention makes the vanilla Attention based models hard to apply to long sequence tasks. Various improved Attention structures are proposed to reduce the computation cost by inducing low rankness and approximating the whole sequence by sub-sequences. The most challenging part of those approaches is maintaining the proper balance between information preservation and computation reduction: the longer sub-sequences used, the better information is preserved, but at the price of introducing more noise and computational costs. In this paper, we propose a smoothed skeleton sketching based Attention structure, coined S$^3$Attention, which significantly improves upon the previous attempts to negotiate this trade-off. S$^3$Attention has two mechanisms to effectively minimize the impact of noise while keeping the linear complexity to the sequence length: a smoothing block to mix information over long sequences and a matrix sketching method that simultaneously selects columns and rows from the input matrix. We verify the effectiveness of S$^3$Attention both theoretically and empirically. Extensive studies over Long Range Arena (LRA) datasets and six time-series forecasting show that S$^3$Attention significantly outperforms both vanilla Attention and other state-of-the-art variants of Attention structures.