Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.

GF-DiT: Scheduling Parallelism for Diffusion Transformer Serving

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have become the dominant architecture for image and video generation, creating growing demand for efficient DiT serving. Existing systems assign each request a fixed parallel configuration throughout its lifetime. However, DiT workloads exhibit substantial heterogeneity across requests, execution stages, and system conditions, making static parallelism inefficient and often leading to poor GPU utilization and degraded service quality. This paper argues that DiT serving should treat GPU parallelism as a first-class schedulable resource. We present GF-DiT, a policy-programmable runtime for elastic DiT serving that dynamically adapts the parallelism of running requests according to workload demands and service objectives. GF-DiT introduces an asynchronous execution abstraction that decomposes requests into independently schedulable trajectory tasks and enables online GPU reallocation. To make elastic parallelism practical, GF-DiT further proposes group-free collectives, a lightweight communication abstraction that supports low-overhead online formation and reconfiguration of arbitrary execution groups. We implement GF-DiT in vLLM-Omni and evaluate it on representative image and video diffusion workloads. Compared with fixed-pipeline execution with static parallelism, GF-DiT improves throughput by up to 6.01$\times$, reduces mean latency by up to 95%, lowers SLO violation rates by up to 90%, and reduces communication-group setup overhead from 778 ms to approximately 60 $μ$s.

Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

Falcon-X: A Time Series Foundation Model for Heterogeneous Multivariate Modeling

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization

We introduce Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) as a new paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty that combines aspects of multistage stochastic programming and conditional stochastic optimization. MCCO minimizes a nest of conditional expectations and nonlinear cost functions. It has numerous applications and arises, for example, in optimal stopping, linear-quadratic regulator problems, distributionally robust contextual bandits, as well as in problems involving dynamic risk measures. The naïve nested sampling approach for MCCO suffers from the curse of dimensionality familiar from scenario tree-based multistage stochastic programming, that is, its scenario complexity grows exponentially with the number of nests. We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for MCCO whose scenario complexity grows only polynomially with the desired accuracy.

Temporal Flattening in LLM-Generated Text: Comparing Human and LLM Writing Trajectories

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in daily applications, from content generation to code writing, where each interaction treats the model as stateless, generating responses independently without memory. Yet human writing is inherently longitudinal: authors' styles and cognitive states evolve across months and years. This raises a central question: can LLMs reproduce such temporal structure across extended time periods? We construct and publicly release a longitudinal dataset of 412 human authors and 6,086 documents spanning 2012--2024 across three domains (academic abstracts, blogs, news) and compare them to trajectories generated by three representative LLMs under standard and history-conditioned generation settings. Using drift and variance-based metrics over semantic, lexical, and cognitive-emotional representations, we find temporal flattening in LLM-generated text. LLMs produce greater lexical diversity but exhibit substantially reduced semantic and cognitive-emotional drift relative to humans. These differences are highly predictive: temporal variability patterns alone achieve 94% accuracy and 98% ROC-AUC in distinguishing human from LLM trajectories. Our results demonstrate that temporal flattening persists regardless of whether LLMs generate independently or with access to incremental history, revealing a fundamental property of current deployment paradigms. This gap has direct implications for applications requiring authentic temporal structure, such as synthetic training data and longitudinal text modeling.

NameBERT: Scaling Name-Based Nationality Classification with LLM-Augmented Open Academic Data

Inferring nationality from personal names is a critical capability for equity and bias monitoring, personalization, and a valuable tool in biomedical and sociological research. However, existing name-based nationality classifiers are typically trained on relatively small or source-specific labeled datasets, which can introduce coverage gaps and limit performance for underrepresented countries. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot performance for name-based nationality prediction, their computational cost and latency make them impractical for real-time, large-scale deployment. In this work, we created a large-scale name-nationality dataset from the Open Academic Graph (OAG) and introduce a framework that leverages LLMs as dataset enrichers rather than inference engines. We augment low-resource countries with LLM-generated names and evaluate on real and synthetic-tail test sets. We find that augmentation produces large gains when evaluation includes synthetic tail names and still offers a modest lift on tail-country metrics otherwise. Overall, NameBERT models achieve significantly higher accuracy than state-of-the-art baselines across both in- and out-of-domain tasks, while remaining efficient for large-scale inference compared to LLMs.

Beauty in the Eye of AI: Aligning LLMs and Vision Models with Human Aesthetics in Network Visualization

Network visualization has traditionally relied on heuristic metrics, such as stress, under the assumption that optimizing them leads to aesthetic and informative layouts. However, no single metric consistently produces the most effective results. A data-driven alternative is to learn from human preferences, where annotators select their favored visualization among multiple layouts of the same graphs. These human-preference labels can then be used to train a generative model that approximates human aesthetic preferences. However, obtaining human labels at scale is costly and time-consuming. As a result, this generative approach has so far been tested only with machine-labeled data. In this paper, we explore the use of large language models (LLMs) and vision models (VMs) as proxies for human judgment. Through a carefully designed user study involving 27 participants, we curated a large set of human preference labels. We used this data both to better understand human preferences and to bootstrap LLM/VM labelers. We show that prompt engineering that combines few-shot examples and diverse input formats, such as image embeddings, significantly improves LLM-human alignment, and additional filtering by the confidence score of the LLM pushes the alignment to human-human levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate that carefully trained VMs can achieve VM-human alignment at a level comparable to that between human annotators. Our results suggest that AI can feasibly serve as a scalable proxy for human labelers.

RMBench: Memory-Dependent Robotic Manipulation Benchmark with Insights into Policy Design

Robotic manipulation policies have made rapid progress in recent years, yet most existing approaches give limited consideration to memory capabilities. Consequently, they struggle to solve tasks that require reasoning over historical observations and maintaining task-relevant information over time, which are common requirements in real-world manipulation scenarios. Although several memory-aware policies have been proposed, systematic evaluation of memory-dependent manipulation remains underexplored, and the relationship between architectural design choices and memory performance is still not well understood. To address this gap, we introduce RMBench, a simulation benchmark comprising 9 manipulation tasks that span multiple levels of memory complexity, enabling systematic evaluation of policy memory capabilities. We further propose Mem-0, a modular manipulation policy with explicit memory components designed to support controlled ablation studies. Through extensive simulation and real-world experiments, we identify memory-related limitations in existing policies and provide empirical insights into how architectural design choices influence memory performance. The website is available at https://rmbench.github.io/.

From Observations to States: Latent Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are temporally disordered and lack continuity. We attribute this phenomenon to the dominant observation-space forecasting paradigm. Most TSF models minimize point-wise errors on noisy and partially observed data, which encourages shortcut solutions instead of the recovery of underlying system dynamics. To address this issue, we propose Latent Time Series Forecasting (LatentTSF), a novel paradigm that shifts TSF from observation regression to latent state prediction. Specifically, LatentTSF employs an AutoEncoder to project observations at each time step into a higher-dimensional latent state space. This expanded representation aims to capture underlying system variables and impose a smoother temporal structure. Forecasting is then performed entirely in the latent space, allowing the model to focus on learning structured temporal dynamics. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our proposed latent objectives implicitly maximize mutual information between predicted latent states and ground-truth states and observations. Extensive experiments on widely-used benchmarks confirm that LatentTSF effectively mitigates latent chaos, achieving superior performance. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/LatentTSF.