Navigating the Ocean of Biases: Political Bias Attribution in Language Models via Causal Structures

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked intense debate regarding their ability to perceive and interpret complex socio-political landscapes. In this study, we undertake an exploration of decision-making processes and inherent biases within LLMs, exemplified by ChatGPT, specifically contextualizing our analysis within political debates. We aim not to critique or validate LLMs' values, but rather to discern how they interpret and adjudicate "good arguments." By applying Activity Dependency Networks (ADNs), we extract the LLMs' implicit criteria for such assessments and illustrate how normative values influence these perceptions. We discuss the consequences of our findings for human-AI alignment and bias mitigation. Our code and data at https://github.com/david-jenny/LLM-Political-Study.

The ART of LLM Refinement: Ask, Refine, and Trust

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable generative abilities, but can they judge the quality of their own generations? A popular concept, referred to as self-refinement, postulates that LLMs can detect and correct the errors in their generations when asked to do so. However, recent empirical evidence points in the opposite direction, suggesting that LLMs often struggle to accurately identify errors when reasoning is involved. To address this, we propose a reasoning with refinement objective called ART: Ask, Refine, and Trust, which asks necessary questions to decide when an LLM should refine its output, and either affirm or withhold trust in its refinement by ranking the refinement and the initial prediction. On two multistep reasoning tasks of mathematical word problems (GSM8K) and question answering (StrategyQA), ART achieves a performance gain of +5 points over self-refinement baselines, while using a much smaller model as the decision maker. We also demonstrate the benefit of using smaller models to make refinement decisions as a cost-effective alternative to fine-tuning a larger model.

CausalCite: A Causal Formulation of Paper Citations

Evaluating the significance of a paper is pivotal yet challenging for the scientific community. While the citation count is the most commonly used proxy for this purpose, they are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect a paper's true impact. In this work, we propose a causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. Specifically, we encode each paper using the text embeddings by large language models (LLMs), extract similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesize a counterfactual sample by the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We apply the resulting metric, called CausalCite, as a causal formulation of paper citations. We show its effectiveness on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various sub-fields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of a paper's quality. Our code and data are at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.

Towards a Mechanistic Interpretation of Multi-Step Reasoning Capabilities of Language Models

Recent work has shown that language models (LMs) have strong multi-step (i.e., procedural) reasoning capabilities. However, it is unclear whether LMs perform these tasks by cheating with answers memorized from pretraining corpus, or, via a multi-step reasoning mechanism. In this paper, we try to answer this question by exploring a mechanistic interpretation of LMs for multi-step reasoning tasks. Concretely, we hypothesize that the LM implicitly embeds a reasoning tree resembling the correct reasoning process within it. We test this hypothesis by introducing a new probing approach (called MechanisticProbe) that recovers the reasoning tree from the model's attention patterns. We use our probe to analyze two LMs: GPT-2 on a synthetic task (k-th smallest element), and LLaMA on two simple language-based reasoning tasks (ProofWriter & AI2 Reasoning Challenge). We show that MechanisticProbe is able to detect the information of the reasoning tree from the model's attentions for most examples, suggesting that the LM indeed is going through a process of multi-step reasoning within its architecture in many cases.

Let's Synthesize Step by Step: Iterative Dataset Synthesis with Large Language Models by Extrapolating Errors from Small Models

*Data Synthesis* is a promising way to train a small model with very little labeled data. One approach for data synthesis is to leverage the rich knowledge from large language models to synthesize pseudo training examples for small models, making it possible to achieve both data and compute efficiency at the same time. However, a key challenge in data synthesis is that the synthesized dataset often suffers from a large distributional discrepancy from the *real task* data distribution. Thus, in this paper, we propose *Synthesis Step by Step* (**S3**), a data synthesis framework that shrinks this distribution gap by iteratively extrapolating the errors made by a small model trained on the synthesized dataset on a small real-world validation dataset using a large language model. Extensive experiments on multiple NLP tasks show that our approach improves the performance of a small model by reducing the gap between the synthetic dataset and the real data, resulting in significant improvement compared to several baselines: 9.48% improvement compared to ZeroGen and 2.73% compared to GoldGen, and at most 15.17% improvement compared to the small model trained on human-annotated data.

A Diachronic Perspective on User Trust in AI under Uncertainty

In a human-AI collaboration, users build a mental model of the AI system based on its reliability and how it presents its decision, e.g. its presentation of system confidence and an explanation of the output. Modern NLP systems are often uncalibrated, resulting in confidently incorrect predictions that undermine user trust. In order to build trustworthy AI, we must understand how user trust is developed and how it can be regained after potential trust-eroding events. We study the evolution of user trust in response to these trust-eroding events using a betting game. We find that even a few incorrect instances with inaccurate confidence estimates damage user trust and performance, with very slow recovery. We also show that this degradation in trust reduces the success of human-AI collaboration and that different types of miscalibration -- unconfidently correct and confidently incorrect -- have different negative effects on user trust. Our findings highlight the importance of calibration in user-facing AI applications and shed light on what aspects help users decide whether to trust the AI system.

Agents: An Open-source Framework for Autonomous Language Agents

Recent advances on large language models (LLMs) enable researchers and developers to build autonomous language agents that can automatically solve various tasks and interact with environments, humans, and other agents using natural language interfaces. We consider language agents as a promising direction towards artificial general intelligence and release Agents, an open-source library with the goal of opening up these advances to a wider non-specialist audience. Agents is carefully engineered to support important features including planning, memory, tool usage, multi-agent communication, and fine-grained symbolic control. Agents is user-friendly as it enables non-specialists to build, customize, test, tune, and deploy state-of-the-art autonomous language agents without much coding. The library is also research-friendly as its modularized design makes it easily extensible for researchers. Agents is available at https://github.com/aiwaves-cn/agents.

A Formal Perspective on Byte-Pair Encoding

Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) is a popular algorithm used for tokenizing data in NLP, despite being devised initially as a compression method. BPE appears to be a greedy algorithm at face value, but the underlying optimization problem that BPE seeks to solve has not yet been laid down. We formalize BPE as a combinatorial optimization problem. Via submodular functions, we prove that the iterative greedy version is a $\frac{1}{{\sigma(\boldsymbol{\mu}^\star)}}(1-e^{-{\sigma(\boldsymbol{\mu}^\star)}})$-approximation of an optimal merge sequence, where ${\sigma(\boldsymbol{\mu}^\star)}$ is the total backward curvature with respect to the optimal merge sequence $\boldsymbol{\mu}^\star$. Empirically the lower bound of the approximation is $\approx 0.37$. We provide a faster implementation of BPE which improves the runtime complexity from $\mathcal{O}\left(N M\right)$ to $\mathcal{O}\left(N \log M\right)$, where $N$ is the sequence length and $M$ is the merge count. Finally, we optimize the brute-force algorithm for optimal BPE using memoization.

Tokenization and the Noiseless Channel

Subword tokenization is a key part of many NLP pipelines. However, little is known about why some tokenizer and hyperparameter combinations lead to better downstream model performance than others. We propose that good tokenizers lead to \emph{efficient} channel usage, where the channel is the means by which some input is conveyed to the model and efficiency can be quantified in information-theoretic terms as the ratio of the Shannon entropy to the maximum possible entropy of the token distribution. Yet, an optimal encoding according to Shannon entropy assigns extremely long codes to low-frequency tokens and very short codes to high-frequency tokens. Defining efficiency in terms of R\'enyi entropy, on the other hand, penalizes distributions with either very high or very low-frequency tokens. In machine translation, we find that across multiple tokenizers, the R\'enyi entropy with $\alpha = 2.5$ has a very strong correlation with \textsc{Bleu}: $0.78$ in comparison to just $-0.32$ for compressed length.

Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.