Real-time gravitational-wave inference for binary neutron stars using machine learning

Mergers of binary neutron stars (BNSs) emit signals in both the gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) spectra. Famously, the 2017 multi-messenger observation of GW170817 led to scientific discoveries across cosmology, nuclear physics, and gravity. Central to these results were the sky localization and distance obtained from GW data, which, in the case of GW170817, helped to identify the associated EM transient, AT 2017gfo, 11 hours after the GW signal. Fast analysis of GW data is critical for directing time-sensitive EM observations; however, due to challenges arising from the length and complexity of signals, it is often necessary to make approximations that sacrifice accuracy. Here, we develop a machine learning approach that performs complete BNS inference in just one second without making any such approximations. This is enabled by a new method for explicit integration of physical domain knowledge into neural networks. Our approach enhances multi-messenger observations by providing (i) accurate localization even before the merger; (ii) improved localization precision by $\sim30\%$ compared to approximate low-latency methods; and (iii) detailed information on luminosity distance, inclination, and masses, which can be used to prioritize expensive telescope time. Additionally, the flexibility and reduced cost of our method open new opportunities for equation-of-state and waveform systematics studies. Finally, we demonstrate that our method scales to extremely long signals, up to an hour in length, thus serving as a blueprint for data analysis for next-generation ground- and space-based detectors.

Multilingual Trolley Problems for Language Models

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed in more and more real-world situations, it is crucial to understand their decision-making when faced with moral dilemmas. Inspired by a large-scale cross-cultural study of human moral preferences, "The Moral Machine Experiment", we set up the same set of moral choices for LLMs. We translate 1K vignettes of moral dilemmas, parametrically varied across key axes, into 100+ languages, and reveal the preferences of LLMs in each of these languages. We then compare the responses of LLMs to that of human speakers of those languages, harnessing a dataset of 40 million human moral judgments. We discover that LLMs are more aligned with human preferences in languages such as English, Korean, Hungarian, and Chinese, but less aligned in languages such as Hindi and Somali (in Africa). Moreover, we characterize the explanations LLMs give for their moral choices and find that fairness is the most dominant supporting reason behind GPT-4's decisions and utilitarianism by GPT-3. We also discover "language inequality" (which we define as the model's different development levels in different languages) in a series of meta-properties of moral decision making.

Terminating Differentiable Tree Experts

We advance the recently proposed neuro-symbolic Differentiable Tree Machine, which learns tree operations using a combination of transformers and Tensor Product Representations. We investigate the architecture and propose two key components. We first remove a series of different transformer layers that are used in every step by introducing a mixture of experts. This results in a Differentiable Tree Experts model with a constant number of parameters for any arbitrary number of steps in the computation, compared to the previous method in the Differentiable Tree Machine with a linear growth. Given this flexibility in the number of steps, we additionally propose a new termination algorithm to provide the model the power to choose how many steps to make automatically. The resulting Terminating Differentiable Tree Experts model sluggishly learns to predict the number of steps without an oracle. It can do so while maintaining the learning capabilities of the model, converging to the optimal amount of steps.

Detecting and Identifying Selection Structure in Sequential Data

We argue that the selective inclusion of data points based on latent objectives is common in practical situations, such as music sequences. Since this selection process often distorts statistical analysis, previous work primarily views it as a bias to be corrected and proposes various methods to mitigate its effect. However, while controlling this bias is crucial, selection also offers an opportunity to provide a deeper insight into the hidden generation process, as it is a fundamental mechanism underlying what we observe. In particular, overlooking selection in sequential data can lead to an incomplete or overcomplicated inductive bias in modeling, such as assuming a universal autoregressive structure for all dependencies. Therefore, rather than merely viewing it as a bias, we explore the causal structure of selection in sequential data to delve deeper into the complete causal process. Specifically, we show that selection structure is identifiable without any parametric assumptions or interventional experiments. Moreover, even in cases where selection variables coexist with latent confounders, we still establish the nonparametric identifiability under appropriate structural conditions. Meanwhile, we also propose a provably correct algorithm to detect and identify selection structures as well as other types of dependencies. The framework has been validated empirically on both synthetic data and real-world music.

The Odyssey of Commonsense Causality: From Foundational Benchmarks to Cutting-Edge Reasoning

Understanding commonsense causality is a unique mark of intelligence for humans. It helps people understand the principles of the real world better and benefits the decision-making process related to causation. For instance, commonsense causality is crucial in judging whether a defendant's action causes the plaintiff's loss in determining legal liability. Despite its significance, a systematic exploration of this topic is notably lacking. Our comprehensive survey bridges this gap by focusing on taxonomies, benchmarks, acquisition methods, qualitative reasoning, and quantitative measurements in commonsense causality, synthesizing insights from over 200 representative articles. Our work aims to provide a systematic overview, update scholars on recent advancements, provide a pragmatic guide for beginners, and highlight promising future research directions in this vital field.

Accuracy on the wrong line: On the pitfalls of noisy data for out-of-distribution generalisation

"Accuracy-on-the-line" is a widely observed phenomenon in machine learning, where a model's accuracy on in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) data is positively correlated across different hyperparameters and data configurations. But when does this useful relationship break down? In this work, we explore its robustness. The key observation is that noisy data and the presence of nuisance features can be sufficient to shatter the Accuracy-on-the-line phenomenon. In these cases, ID and OOD accuracy can become negatively correlated, leading to "Accuracy-on-the-wrong-line". This phenomenon can also occur in the presence of spurious (shortcut) features, which tend to overshadow the more complex signal (core, non-spurious) features, resulting in a large nuisance feature space. Moreover, scaling to larger datasets does not mitigate this undesirable behavior and may even exacerbate it. We formally prove a lower bound on Out-of-distribution (OOD) error in a linear classification model, characterizing the conditions on the noise and nuisance features for a large OOD error. We finally demonstrate this phenomenon across both synthetic and real datasets with noisy data and nuisance features.

Preference Elicitation for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to real-world problems is often made challenging by the inability to interact with the environment and the difficulty of designing reward functions. Offline RL addresses the first challenge by considering access to an offline dataset of environment interactions labeled by the reward function. In contrast, Preference-based RL does not assume access to the reward function and learns it from preferences, but typically requires an online interaction with the environment. We bridge the gap between these frameworks by exploring efficient methods for acquiring preference feedback in a fully offline setup. We propose Sim-OPRL, an offline preference-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which leverages a learned environment model to elicit preference feedback on simulated rollouts. Drawing on insights from both the offline RL and the preference-based RL literature, our algorithm employs a pessimistic approach for out-of-distribution data, and an optimistic approach for acquiring informative preferences about the optimal policy. We provide theoretical guarantees regarding the sample complexity of our approach, dependent on how well the offline data covers the optimal policy. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of Sim-OPRL in different environments.

Landscaping Linear Mode Connectivity

The presence of linear paths in parameter space between two different network solutions in certain cases, i.e., linear mode connectivity (LMC), has garnered interest from both theoretical and practical fronts. There has been significant research that either practically designs algorithms catered for connecting networks by adjusting for the permutation symmetries as well as some others that more theoretically construct paths through which networks can be connected. Yet, the core reasons for the occurrence of LMC, when in fact it does occur, in the highly non-convex loss landscapes of neural networks are far from clear. In this work, we take a step towards understanding it by providing a model of how the loss landscape needs to behave topographically for LMC (or the lack thereof) to manifest. Concretely, we present a `mountainside and ridge' perspective that helps to neatly tie together different geometric features that can be spotted in the loss landscape along the training runs. We also complement this perspective by providing a theoretical analysis of the barrier height, for which we provide empirical support, and which additionally extends as a faithful predictor of layer-wise LMC. We close with a toy example that provides further intuition on how barriers arise in the first place, all in all, showcasing the larger aim of the work -- to provide a working model of the landscape and its topography for the occurrence of LMC.

Identifiable Exchangeable Mechanisms for Causal Structure and Representation Learning

Identifying latent representations or causal structures is important for good generalization and downstream task performance. However, both fields have been developed rather independently. We observe that several methods in both representation and causal structure learning rely on the same data-generating process (DGP), namely, exchangeable but not i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed) data. We provide a unified framework, termed Identifiable Exchangeable Mechanisms (IEM), for representation and structure learning under the lens of exchangeability. IEM provides new insights that let us relax the necessary conditions for causal structure identification in exchangeable non--i.i.d. data. We also demonstrate the existence of a duality condition in identifiable representation learning, leading to new identifiability results. We hope this work will pave the way for further research in causal representation learning.

Standardizing Structural Causal Models

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal ordering. Several popular algorithms exploit these artifacts, possibly leading to conclusions that do not generalize to real-world settings. Existing metrics like $\operatorname{Var}$-sortability and $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortability quantify these patterns, but they do not provide tools to remedy them. To address this, we propose internally-standardized structural causal models (iSCMs), a modification of SCMs that introduces a standardization operation at each variable during the generative process. By construction, iSCMs are not $\operatorname{Var}$-sortable, and as we show experimentally, not $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortable either for commonly-used graph families. Moreover, contrary to the post-hoc standardization of data generated by standard SCMs, we prove that linear iSCMs are less identifiable from prior knowledge on the weights and do not collapse to deterministic relationships in large systems, which may make iSCMs a useful model in causal inference beyond the benchmarking problem studied here.