Overconfidence in LLM-as-a-Judge: Diagnosis and Confidence-Driven Solution

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the **Overconfidence Phenomenon** in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce **TH-Score**, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose **LLM-as-a-Fuser**, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

Simulating Before Planning: Constructing Intrinsic User World Model for User-Tailored Dialogue Policy Planning

Recent advancements in dialogue policy planning have emphasized optimizing system agent policies to achieve predefined goals, focusing on strategy design, trajectory acquisition, and efficient training paradigms. However, these approaches often overlook the critical role of user characteristics, which are essential in real-world scenarios like conversational search and recommendation, where interactions must adapt to individual user traits such as personality, preferences, and goals. To address this gap, we first conduct a comprehensive study utilizing task-specific user personas to systematically assess dialogue policy planning under diverse user behaviors. By leveraging realistic user profiles for different tasks, our study reveals significant limitations in existing approaches, highlighting the need for user-tailored dialogue policy planning. Building on this foundation, we present the User-Tailored Dialogue Policy Planning (UDP) framework, which incorporates an Intrinsic User World Model to model user traits and feedback. UDP operates in three stages: (1) User Persona Portraying, using a diffusion model to dynamically infer user profiles; (2) User Feedback Anticipating, leveraging a Brownian Bridge-inspired anticipator to predict user reactions; and (3) User-Tailored Policy Planning, integrating these insights to optimize response strategies. To ensure robust performance, we further propose an active learning approach that prioritizes challenging user personas during training. Comprehensive experiments on benchmarks, including collaborative and non-collaborative settings, demonstrate the effectiveness of UDP in learning user-specific dialogue strategies. Results validate the protocol's utility and highlight UDP's robustness, adaptability, and potential to advance user-centric dialogue systems.

Simulation-Free Hierarchical Latent Policy Planning for Proactive Dialogues

Recent advancements in proactive dialogues have garnered significant attention, particularly for more complex objectives (e.g. emotion support and persuasion). Unlike traditional task-oriented dialogues, proactive dialogues demand advanced policy planning and adaptability, requiring rich scenarios and comprehensive policy repositories to develop such systems. However, existing approaches tend to rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) for user simulation and online learning, leading to biases that diverge from realistic scenarios and result in suboptimal efficiency. Moreover, these methods depend on manually defined, context-independent, coarse-grained policies, which not only incur high expert costs but also raise concerns regarding their completeness. In our work, we highlight the potential for automatically discovering policies directly from raw, real-world dialogue records. To this end, we introduce a novel dialogue policy planning framework, LDPP. It fully automates the process from mining policies in dialogue records to learning policy planning. Specifically, we employ a variant of the Variational Autoencoder to discover fine-grained policies represented as latent vectors. After automatically annotating the data with these latent policy labels, we propose an Offline Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm in the latent space to develop effective policy planning capabilities. Our experiments demonstrate that LDPP outperforms existing methods on two proactive scenarios, even surpassing ChatGPT with only a 1.8-billion-parameter LLM.

A Survey of Ontology Expansion for Conversational Understanding

In the rapidly evolving field of conversational AI, Ontology Expansion (OnExp) is crucial for enhancing the adaptability and robustness of conversational agents. Traditional models rely on static, predefined ontologies, limiting their ability to handle new and unforeseen user needs. This survey paper provides a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art techniques in OnExp for conversational understanding. It categorizes the existing literature into three main areas: (1) New Intent Discovery, (2) New Slot-Value Discovery, and (3) Joint OnExp. By examining the methodologies, benchmarks, and challenges associated with these areas, we highlight several emerging frontiers in OnExp to improve agent performance in real-world scenarios and discuss their corresponding challenges. This survey aspires to be a foundational reference for researchers and practitioners, promoting further exploration and innovation in this crucial domain.

Grounding is All You Need? Dual Temporal Grounding for Video Dialog

In the realm of video dialog response generation, the understanding of video content and the temporal nuances of conversation history are paramount. While a segment of current research leans heavily on large-scale pretrained visual-language models and often overlooks temporal dynamics, another delves deep into spatial-temporal relationships within videos but demands intricate object trajectory pre-extractions and sidelines dialog temporal dynamics. This paper introduces the Dual Temporal Grounding-enhanced Video Dialog model (DTGVD), strategically designed to merge the strengths of both dominant approaches. It emphasizes dual temporal relationships by predicting dialog turn-specific temporal regions, filtering video content accordingly, and grounding responses in both video and dialog contexts. One standout feature of DTGVD is its heightened attention to chronological interplay. By recognizing and acting upon the dependencies between different dialog turns, it captures more nuanced conversational dynamics. To further bolster the alignment between video and dialog temporal dynamics, we've implemented a list-wise contrastive learning strategy. Within this framework, accurately grounded turn-clip pairings are designated as positive samples, while less precise pairings are categorized as negative. This refined classification is then funneled into our holistic end-to-end response generation mechanism. Evaluations using AVSD@DSTC-7 and AVSD@DSTC-8 datasets underscore the superiority of our methodology.

PCQPR: Proactive Conversational Question Planning with Reflection

Conversational Question Generation (CQG) enhances the interactivity of conversational question-answering systems in fields such as education, customer service, and entertainment. However, traditional CQG, focusing primarily on the immediate context, lacks the conversational foresight necessary to guide conversations toward specified conclusions. This limitation significantly restricts their ability to achieve conclusion-oriented conversational outcomes. In this work, we redefine the CQG task as Conclusion-driven Conversational Question Generation (CCQG) by focusing on proactivity, not merely reacting to the unfolding conversation but actively steering it towards a conclusion-oriented question-answer pair. To address this, we propose a novel approach, called Proactive Conversational Question Planning with self-Refining (PCQPR). Concretely, by integrating a planning algorithm inspired by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with the analytical capabilities of large language models (LLMs), PCQPR predicts future conversation turns and continuously refines its questioning strategies. This iterative self-refining mechanism ensures the generation of contextually relevant questions strategically devised to reach a specified outcome. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate that PCQPR significantly surpasses existing CQG methods, marking a paradigm shift towards conclusion-oriented conversational question-answering systems.

Retrieval Augmented Generation for Dynamic Graph Modeling

Dynamic graph modeling is crucial for analyzing evolving patterns in various applications. Existing approaches often integrate graph neural networks with temporal modules or redefine dynamic graph modeling as a generative sequence task. However, these methods typically rely on isolated historical contexts of the target nodes from a narrow perspective, neglecting occurrences of similar patterns or relevant cases associated with other nodes. In this work, we introduce the Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Dynamic Graph Modeling (RAG4DyG) framework, which leverages guidance from contextually and temporally analogous examples to broaden the perspective of each node. This approach presents two critical challenges: (1) How to identify and retrieve high-quality demonstrations that are contextually and temporally analogous to dynamic graph samples? (2) How can these demonstrations be effectively integrated to improve dynamic graph modeling? To address these challenges, we propose RAG4DyG, which enriches the understanding of historical contexts by retrieving and learning from contextually and temporally pertinent demonstrations. Specifically, we employ a time- and context-aware contrastive learning module to identify and retrieve relevant cases for each query sequence. Moreover, we design a graph fusion strategy to integrate the retrieved cases, thereby augmenting the inherent historical contexts for improved prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets across different domains demonstrate the effectiveness of RAG4DyG for dynamic graph modeling.

Planning Like Human: A Dual-process Framework for Dialogue Planning

In proactive dialogue, the challenge lies not just in generating responses but in steering conversations toward predetermined goals, a task where Large Language Models (LLMs) typically struggle due to their reactive nature. Traditional approaches to enhance dialogue planning in LLMs, ranging from elaborate prompt engineering to the integration of policy networks, either face efficiency issues or deliver suboptimal performance. Inspired by the dualprocess theory in psychology, which identifies two distinct modes of thinking - intuitive (fast) and analytical (slow), we propose the Dual-Process Dialogue Planning (DPDP) framework. DPDP embodies this theory through two complementary planning systems: an instinctive policy model for familiar contexts and a deliberative Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) mechanism for complex, novel scenarios. This dual strategy is further coupled with a novel two-stage training regimen: offline Reinforcement Learning for robust initial policy model formation followed by MCTS-enhanced on-the-fly learning, which ensures a dynamic balance between efficiency and strategic depth. Our empirical evaluations across diverse dialogue tasks affirm DPDP's superiority in achieving both high-quality dialogues and operational efficiency, outpacing existing methods.

Analyzing Temporal Complex Events with Large Language Models? A Benchmark towards Temporal, Long Context Understanding

The digital landscape is rapidly evolving with an ever-increasing volume of online news, emphasizing the need for swift and precise analysis of complex events. We refer to the complex events composed of many news articles over an extended period as Temporal Complex Event (TCE). This paper proposes a novel approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) to systematically extract and analyze the event chain within TCE, characterized by their key points and timestamps. We establish a benchmark, named TCELongBench, to evaluate the proficiency of LLMs in handling temporal dynamics and understanding extensive text. This benchmark encompasses three distinct tasks - reading comprehension, temporal sequencing, and future event forecasting. In the experiment, we leverage retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) method and LLMs with long context window to deal with lengthy news articles of TCE. Our findings indicate that models with suitable retrievers exhibit comparable performance with those utilizing long context window.

Towards Human-centered Proactive Conversational Agents

Recent research on proactive conversational agents (PCAs) mainly focuses on improving the system's capabilities in anticipating and planning action sequences to accomplish tasks and achieve goals before users articulate their requests. This perspectives paper highlights the importance of moving towards building human-centered PCAs that emphasize human needs and expectations, and that considers ethical and social implications of these agents, rather than solely focusing on technological capabilities. The distinction between a proactive and a reactive system lies in the proactive system's initiative-taking nature. Without thoughtful design, proactive systems risk being perceived as intrusive by human users. We address the issue by establishing a new taxonomy concerning three key dimensions of human-centered PCAs, namely Intelligence, Adaptivity, and Civility. We discuss potential research opportunities and challenges based on this new taxonomy upon the five stages of PCA system construction. This perspectives paper lays a foundation for the emerging area of conversational information retrieval research and paves the way towards advancing human-centered proactive conversational systems.