Uncertainty-Aware Prediction and Application in Planning for Autonomous Driving: Definitions, Methods, and Comparison

Autonomous driving systems face the formidable challenge of navigating intricate and dynamic environments with uncertainty. This study presents a unified prediction and planning framework that concurrently models short-term aleatoric uncertainty (SAU), long-term aleatoric uncertainty (LAU), and epistemic uncertainty (EU) to predict and establish a robust foundation for planning in dynamic contexts. The framework uses Gaussian mixture models and deep ensemble methods, to concurrently capture and assess SAU, LAU, and EU, where traditional methods do not integrate these uncertainties simultaneously. Additionally, uncertainty-aware planning is introduced, considering various uncertainties. The study's contributions include comparisons of uncertainty estimations, risk modeling, and planning methods in comparison to existing approaches. The proposed methods were rigorously evaluated using the CommonRoad benchmark and settings with limited perception. These experiments illuminated the advantages and roles of different uncertainty factors in autonomous driving processes. In addition, comparative assessments of various uncertainty modeling strategies underscore the benefits of modeling multiple types of uncertainties, thus enhancing planning accuracy and reliability. The proposed framework facilitates the development of methods for UAP and surpasses existing uncertainty-aware risk models, particularly when considering diverse traffic scenarios. Project page: https://swb19.github.io/UAP/.

Towards Safe and Reliable Autonomous Driving: Dynamic Occupancy Set Prediction

In the rapidly evolving field of autonomous driving, accurate trajectory prediction is pivotal for vehicular safety. However, trajectory predictions often deviate from actual paths, particularly in complex and challenging environments, leading to significant errors. To address this issue, our study introduces a novel method for Dynamic Occupancy Set (DOS) prediction, enhancing trajectory prediction capabilities. This method effectively combines advanced trajectory prediction networks with a DOS prediction module, overcoming the shortcomings of existing models. It provides a comprehensive and adaptable framework for predicting the potential occupancy sets of traffic participants. The main contributions of this research include: 1) A novel DOS prediction model tailored for complex scenarios, augmenting traditional trajectory prediction; 2) The development of unique DOS representations and evaluation metrics; 3) Extensive validation through experiments, demonstrating enhanced performance and adaptability. This research contributes to the advancement of safer and more efficient intelligent vehicle and transportation systems.

Pose2Gaze: Generating Realistic Human Gaze Behaviour from Full-body Poses using an Eye-body Coordination Model

While generating realistic body movements, e.g., for avatars in virtual reality, is widely studied in computer vision and graphics, the generation of eye movements that exhibit realistic coordination with the body remains under-explored. We first report a comprehensive analysis of the coordination of human eye and full-body movements during everyday activities based on data from the MoGaze and GIMO datasets. We show that eye gaze has strong correlations with head directions and also full-body motions and there exists a noticeable time delay between body and eye movements. Inspired by the analyses, we then present Pose2Gaze -- a novel eye-body coordination model that first uses a convolutional neural network and a spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network to extract features from head directions and full-body poses respectively and then applies a convolutional neural network to generate realistic eye movements. We compare our method with state-of-the-art methods that predict eye gaze only from head movements for three different generation tasks and demonstrate that Pose2Gaze significantly outperforms these baselines on both datasets with an average improvement of 26.4% and 21.6% in mean angular error, respectively. Our findings underline the significant potential of cross-modal human gaze behaviour analysis and modelling.

Enhancing Black-Box Few-Shot Text Classification with Prompt-Based Data Augmentation

Training or finetuning large-scale language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 requires substantial computation resources, motivating recent efforts to explore parameter-efficient adaptation to downstream tasks. One practical area of research is to treat these models as black boxes and interact with them through their inference APIs. In this paper, we investigate how to optimize few-shot text classification without accessing the gradients of the LLMs. To achieve this, we treat the black-box model as a feature extractor and train a classifier with the augmented text data. Data augmentation is performed using prompt-based finetuning on an auxiliary language model with a much smaller parameter size than the black-box model. Through extensive experiments on eight text classification datasets, we show that our approach, dubbed BT-Classifier, significantly outperforms state-of-the-art black-box few-shot learners and performs on par with methods that rely on full-model tuning.

Group-Aware Graph Neural Network for Nationwide City Air Quality Forecasting

The problem of air pollution threatens public health. Air quality forecasting can provide the air quality index hours or even days later, which can help the public to prevent air pollution in advance. Previous works focus on citywide air quality forecasting and cannot solve nationwide city forecasting problem, whose difficulties lie in capturing the latent dependencies between geographically distant but highly correlated cities. In this paper, we propose the group-aware graph neural network (GAGNN), a hierarchical model for nationwide city air quality forecasting. The model constructs a city graph and a city group graph to model the spatial and latent dependencies between cities, respectively. GAGNN introduces differentiable grouping network to discover the latent dependencies among cities and generate city groups. Based on the generated city groups, a group correlation encoding module is introduced to learn the correlations between them, which can effectively capture the dependencies between city groups. After the graph construction, GAGNN implements message passing mechanism to model the dependencies between cities and city groups. The evaluation experiments on Chinese city air quality dataset indicate that our GAGNN outperforms existing forecasting models.

HighAir: A Hierarchical Graph Neural Network-Based Air Quality Forecasting Method

Accurately forecasting air quality is critical to protecting general public from lung and heart diseases. This is a challenging task due to the complicated interactions among distinct pollution sources and various other influencing factors. Existing air quality forecasting methods cannot effectively model the diffusion processes of air pollutants between cities and monitoring stations, which may suddenly deteriorate the air quality of a region. In this paper, we propose HighAir, i.e., a hierarchical graph neural network-based air quality forecasting method, which adopts an encoder-decoder architecture and considers complex air quality influencing factors, e.g., weather and land usage. Specifically, we construct a city-level graph and station-level graphs from a hierarchical perspective, which can consider city-level and station-level patterns, respectively. We design two strategies, i.e., upper delivery and lower updating, to implement the inter-level interactions, and introduce message passing mechanism to implement the intra-level interactions. We dynamically adjust edge weights based on wind direction to model the correlations between dynamic factors and air quality. We compare HighAir with the state-of-the-art air quality forecasting methods on the dataset of Yangtze River Delta city group, which covers 10 major cities within 61,500 km2. The experimental results show that HighAir significantly outperforms other methods.

Recyclable Waste Identification Using CNN Image Recognition and Gaussian Clustering

Waste recycling is an important way of saving energy and materials in the production process. In general cases recyclable objects are mixed with unrecyclable objects, which raises a need for identification and classification. This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) model to complete both tasks. The model uses transfer learning from a pretrained Resnet-50 CNN to complete feature extraction. A subsequent fully connected layer for classification was trained on the augmented TrashNet dataset [1]. In the application, sliding-window is used for image segmentation in the pre-classification stage. In the post-classification stage, the labelled sample points are integrated with Gaussian Clustering to locate the object. The resulting model has achieved an overall detection rate of 48.4% in simulation and final classification accuracy of 92.4%.

Uncovering Sociological Effect Heterogeneity using Machine Learning

Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status. In so doing, analysts determine the key subpopulations based on theoretical priors. Data-driven discoveries are also routine, yet the analyses by which sociologists typically go about them are problematic and seldom move us beyond our expectations, and biases, to explore new meaningful subgroups. Emerging machine learning methods allow researchers to explore sources of variation that they may not have previously considered, or envisaged. In this paper, we use causal trees to recursively partition the sample and uncover sources of treatment effect heterogeneity. We use honest estimation, splitting the sample into a training sample to grow the tree and an estimation sample to estimate leaf-specific effects. Assessing a central topic in the social inequality literature, college effects on wages, we compare what we learn from conventional approaches for exploring variation in effects to causal trees. Given our use of observational data, we use leaf-specific matching and sensitivity analyses to address confounding and offer interpretations of effects based on observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We encourage researchers to follow similar practices in their work on variation in sociological effects.