RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planning

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Control-Aware Prediction Objectives for Autonomous Driving

Autonomous vehicle software is typically structured as a modular pipeline of individual components (e.g., perception, prediction, and planning) to help separate concerns into interpretable sub-tasks. Even when end-to-end training is possible, each module has its own set of objectives used for safety assurance, sample efficiency, regularization, or interpretability. However, intermediate objectives do not always align with overall system performance. For example, optimizing the likelihood of a trajectory prediction module might focus more on easy-to-predict agents than safety-critical or rare behaviors (e.g., jaywalking). In this paper, we present control-aware prediction objectives (CAPOs), to evaluate the downstream effect of predictions on control without requiring the planner be differentiable. We propose two types of importance weights that weight the predictive likelihood: one using an attention model between agents, and another based on control variation when exchanging predicted trajectories for ground truth trajectories. Experimentally, we show our objectives improve overall system performance in suburban driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator.

Dynamics-Aware Comparison of Learned Reward Functions

The ability to learn reward functions plays an important role in enabling the deployment of intelligent agents in the real world. However, comparing reward functions, for example as a means of evaluating reward learning methods, presents a challenge. Reward functions are typically compared by considering the behavior of optimized policies, but this approach conflates deficiencies in the reward function with those of the policy search algorithm used to optimize it. To address this challenge, Gleave et al. (2020) propose the Equivalent-Policy Invariant Comparison (EPIC) distance. EPIC avoids policy optimization, but in doing so requires computing reward values at transitions that may be impossible under the system dynamics. This is problematic for learned reward functions because it entails evaluating them outside of their training distribution, resulting in inaccurate reward values that we show can render EPIC ineffective at comparing rewards. To address this problem, we propose the Dynamics-Aware Reward Distance (DARD), a new reward pseudometric. DARD uses an approximate transition model of the environment to transform reward functions into a form that allows for comparisons that are invariant to reward shaping while only evaluating reward functions on transitions close to their training distribution. Experiments in simulated physical domains demonstrate that DARD enables reliable reward comparisons without policy optimization and is significantly more predictive than baseline methods of downstream policy performance when dealing with learned reward functions.

Heterogeneous-Agent Trajectory Forecasting Incorporating Class Uncertainty

Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agent's most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agents' class probabilities. We additionally present PUP, a new challenging real-world autonomous driving dataset, to investigate the impact of Perceptual Uncertainty in Prediction. It contains challenging crowded scenes with unfiltered agent class probabilities that reflect the long-tail of current state-of-the-art perception systems. We demonstrate that incorporating class probabilities in trajectory forecasting significantly improves performance in the face of uncertainty, and enables new forecasting capabilities such as counterfactual predictions.

Measuring Sample Efficiency and Generalization in Reinforcement Learning Benchmarks: NeurIPS 2020 Procgen Benchmark

The NeurIPS 2020 Procgen Competition was designed as a centralized benchmark with clearly defined tasks for measuring Sample Efficiency and Generalization in Reinforcement Learning. Generalization remains one of the most fundamental challenges in deep reinforcement learning, and yet we do not have enough benchmarks to measure the progress of the community on Generalization in Reinforcement Learning. We present the design of a centralized benchmark for Reinforcement Learning which can help measure Sample Efficiency and Generalization in Reinforcement Learning by doing end to end evaluation of the training and rollout phases of thousands of user submitted code bases in a scalable way. We designed the benchmark on top of the already existing Procgen Benchmark by defining clear tasks and standardizing the end to end evaluation setups. The design aims to maximize the flexibility available for researchers who wish to design future iterations of such benchmarks, and yet imposes necessary practical constraints to allow for a system like this to scale. This paper presents the competition setup and the details and analysis of the top solutions identified through this setup in context of 2020 iteration of the competition at NeurIPS.

Modeling Human Driving Behavior through Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning

Imitation learning is an approach for generating intelligent behavior when the cost function is unknown or difficult to specify. Building upon work in inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) aims to provide effective imitation even for problems with large or continuous state and action spaces. Driver modeling is one example of a problem where the state and action spaces are continuous. Human driving behavior is characterized by non-linearity and stochasticity, and the underlying cost function is unknown. As a result, learning from human driving demonstrations is a promising approach for generating human-like driving behavior. This article describes the use of GAIL for learning-based driver modeling. Because driver modeling is inherently a multi-agent problem, where the interaction between agents needs to be modeled, this paper describes a parameter-sharing extension of GAIL called PS-GAIL to tackle multi-agent driver modeling. In addition, GAIL is domain agnostic, making it difficult to encode specific knowledge relevant to driving in the learning process. This paper describes Reward Augmented Imitation Learning (RAIL), which modifies the reward signal to provide domain-specific knowledge to the agent. Finally, human demonstrations are dependent upon latent factors that may not be captured by GAIL. This paper describes Burn-InfoGAIL, which allows for disentanglement of latent variability in demonstrations. Imitation learning experiments are performed using NGSIM, a real-world highway driving dataset. Experiments show that these modifications to GAIL can successfully model highway driving behavior, accurately replicating human demonstrations and generating realistic, emergent behavior in the traffic flow arising from the interaction between driving agents.

Multi-Agent Imitation Learning for Driving Simulation

Simulation is an appealing option for validating the safety of autonomous vehicles. Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) has recently been shown to learn representative human driver models. These human driver models were learned through training in single-agent environments, but they have difficulty in generalizing to multi-agent driving scenarios. We argue these difficulties arise because observations at training and test time are sampled from different distributions. This difference makes such models unsuitable for the simulation of driving scenes, where multiple agents must interact realistically over long time horizons. We extend GAIL to address these shortcomings through a parameter-sharing approach grounded in curriculum learning. Compared with single-agent GAIL policies, policies generated by our PS-GAIL method prove superior at interacting stably in a multi-agent setting and capturing the emergent behavior of human drivers.

Real-time Prediction of Intermediate-Horizon Automotive Collision Risk

Advanced collision avoidance and driver hand-off systems can benefit from the ability to accurately predict, in real time, the probability a vehicle will be involved in a collision within an intermediate horizon of 10 to 20 seconds. The rarity of collisions in real-world data poses a significant challenge to developing this capability because, as we demonstrate empirically, intermediate-horizon risk prediction depends heavily on high-dimensional driver behavioral features. As a result, a large amount of data is required to fit an effective predictive model. In this paper, we assess whether simulated data can help alleviate this issue. Focusing on highway driving, we present a three-step approach for generating data and fitting a predictive model capable of real-time prediction. First, high-risk automotive scenes are generated using importance sampling on a learned Bayesian network scene model. Second, collision risk is estimated through Monte Carlo simulation. Third, a neural network domain adaptation model is trained on real and simulated data to address discrepancies between the two domains. Experiments indicate that simulated data can mitigate issues resulting from collision rarity, thereby improving risk prediction in real-world data.