CARFF: Conditional Auto-encoded Radiance Field for 3D Scene Forecasting

We propose CARFF: Conditional Auto-encoded Radiance Field for 3D Scene Forecasting, a method for predicting future 3D scenes given past observations, such as 2D ego-centric images. Our method maps an image to a distribution over plausible 3D latent scene configurations using a probabilistic encoder, and predicts the evolution of the hypothesized scenes through time. Our latent scene representation conditions a global Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) to represent a 3D scene model, which enables explainable predictions and straightforward downstream applications. This approach extends beyond previous neural rendering work by considering complex scenarios of uncertainty in environmental states and dynamics. We employ a two-stage training of Pose-Conditional-VAE and NeRF to learn 3D representations. Additionally, we auto-regressively predict latent scene representations as a partially observable Markov decision process, utilizing a mixture density network. We demonstrate the utility of our method in realistic scenarios using the CARLA driving simulator, where CARFF can be used to enable efficient trajectory and contingency planning in complex multi-agent autonomous driving scenarios involving visual occlusions.

Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Research

Simulation is an essential tool to develop and benchmark autonomous vehicle planning software in a safe and cost-effective manner. However, realistic simulation requires accurate modeling of nuanced and complex multi-agent interactive behaviors. To address these challenges, we introduce Waymax, a new data-driven simulator for autonomous driving in multi-agent scenes, designed for large-scale simulation and testing. Waymax uses publicly-released, real-world driving data (e.g., the Waymo Open Motion Dataset) to initialize or play back a diverse set of multi-agent simulated scenarios. It runs entirely on hardware accelerators such as TPUs/GPUs and supports in-graph simulation for training, making it suitable for modern large-scale, distributed machine learning workflows. To support online training and evaluation, Waymax includes several learned and hard-coded behavior models that allow for realistic interaction within simulation. To supplement Waymax, we benchmark a suite of popular imitation and reinforcement learning algorithms with ablation studies on different design decisions, where we highlight the effectiveness of routes as guidance for planning agents and the ability of RL to overfit against simulated agents.

In-Distribution Barrier Functions: Self-Supervised Policy Filters that Avoid Out-of-Distribution States

Learning-based control approaches have shown great promise in performing complex tasks directly from high-dimensional perception data for real robotic systems. Nonetheless, the learned controllers can behave unexpectedly if the trajectories of the system divert from the training data distribution, which can compromise safety. In this work, we propose a control filter that wraps any reference policy and effectively encourages the system to stay in-distribution with respect to offline-collected safe demonstrations. Our methodology is inspired by Control Barrier Functions (CBFs), which are model-based tools from the nonlinear control literature that can be used to construct minimally invasive safe policy filters. While existing methods based on CBFs require a known low-dimensional state representation, our proposed approach is directly applicable to systems that rely solely on high-dimensional visual observations by learning in a latent state-space. We demonstrate that our method is effective for two different visuomotor control tasks in simulation environments, including both top-down and egocentric view settings.

RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planning

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Control-Aware Prediction Objectives for Autonomous Driving

Autonomous vehicle software is typically structured as a modular pipeline of individual components (e.g., perception, prediction, and planning) to help separate concerns into interpretable sub-tasks. Even when end-to-end training is possible, each module has its own set of objectives used for safety assurance, sample efficiency, regularization, or interpretability. However, intermediate objectives do not always align with overall system performance. For example, optimizing the likelihood of a trajectory prediction module might focus more on easy-to-predict agents than safety-critical or rare behaviors (e.g., jaywalking). In this paper, we present control-aware prediction objectives (CAPOs), to evaluate the downstream effect of predictions on control without requiring the planner be differentiable. We propose two types of importance weights that weight the predictive likelihood: one using an attention model between agents, and another based on control variation when exchanging predicted trajectories for ground truth trajectories. Experimentally, we show our objectives improve overall system performance in suburban driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator.

Dynamics-Aware Comparison of Learned Reward Functions

The ability to learn reward functions plays an important role in enabling the deployment of intelligent agents in the real world. However, comparing reward functions, for example as a means of evaluating reward learning methods, presents a challenge. Reward functions are typically compared by considering the behavior of optimized policies, but this approach conflates deficiencies in the reward function with those of the policy search algorithm used to optimize it. To address this challenge, Gleave et al. (2020) propose the Equivalent-Policy Invariant Comparison (EPIC) distance. EPIC avoids policy optimization, but in doing so requires computing reward values at transitions that may be impossible under the system dynamics. This is problematic for learned reward functions because it entails evaluating them outside of their training distribution, resulting in inaccurate reward values that we show can render EPIC ineffective at comparing rewards. To address this problem, we propose the Dynamics-Aware Reward Distance (DARD), a new reward pseudometric. DARD uses an approximate transition model of the environment to transform reward functions into a form that allows for comparisons that are invariant to reward shaping while only evaluating reward functions on transitions close to their training distribution. Experiments in simulated physical domains demonstrate that DARD enables reliable reward comparisons without policy optimization and is significantly more predictive than baseline methods of downstream policy performance when dealing with learned reward functions.

Heterogeneous-Agent Trajectory Forecasting Incorporating Class Uncertainty

Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agent's most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agents' class probabilities. We additionally present PUP, a new challenging real-world autonomous driving dataset, to investigate the impact of Perceptual Uncertainty in Prediction. It contains challenging crowded scenes with unfiltered agent class probabilities that reflect the long-tail of current state-of-the-art perception systems. We demonstrate that incorporating class probabilities in trajectory forecasting significantly improves performance in the face of uncertainty, and enables new forecasting capabilities such as counterfactual predictions.

Contingencies from Observations: Tractable Contingency Planning with Learned Behavior Models

Humans have a remarkable ability to make decisions by accurately reasoning about future events, including the future behaviors and states of mind of other agents. Consider driving a car through a busy intersection: it is necessary to reason about the physics of the vehicle, the intentions of other drivers, and their beliefs about your own intentions. If you signal a turn, another driver might yield to you, or if you enter the passing lane, another driver might decelerate to give you room to merge in front. Competent drivers must plan how they can safely react to a variety of potential future behaviors of other agents before they make their next move. This requires contingency planning: explicitly planning a set of conditional actions that depend on the stochastic outcome of future events. In this work, we develop a general-purpose contingency planner that is learned end-to-end using high-dimensional scene observations and low-dimensional behavioral observations. We use a conditional autoregressive flow model to create a compact contingency planning space, and show how this model can tractably learn contingencies from behavioral observations. We developed a closed-loop control benchmark of realistic multi-agent scenarios in a driving simulator (CARLA), on which we compare our method to various noncontingent methods that reason about multi-agent future behavior, including several state-of-the-art deep learning-based planning approaches. We illustrate that these noncontingent planning methods fundamentally fail on this benchmark, and find that our deep contingency planning method achieves significantly superior performance. Code to run our benchmark and reproduce our results is available at https://sites.google.com/view/contingency-planning

Outcome-Driven Reinforcement Learning via Variational Inference

While reinforcement learning algorithms provide automated acquisition of optimal policies, practical application of such methods requires a number of design decisions, such as manually designing reward functions that not only define the task, but also provide sufficient shaping to accomplish it. In this paper, we discuss a new perspective on reinforcement learning, recasting it as the problem of inferring actions that achieve desired outcomes, rather than a problem of maximizing rewards. To solve the resulting outcome-directed inference problem, we establish a novel variational inference formulation that allows us to derive a well-shaped reward function which can be learned directly from environment interactions. From the corresponding variational objective, we also derive a new probabilistic Bellman backup operator reminiscent of the standard Bellman backup operator and use it to develop an off-policy algorithm to solve goal-directed tasks. We empirically demonstrate that this method eliminates the need to design reward functions and leads to effective goal-directed behaviors.

Can Autonomous Vehicles Identify, Recover From, and Adapt to Distribution Shifts?

Out-of-training-distribution (OOD) scenarios are a common challenge of learning agents at deployment, typically leading to arbitrary deductions and poorly-informed decisions. In principle, detection of and adaptation to OOD scenes can mitigate their adverse effects. In this paper, we highlight the limitations of current approaches to novel driving scenes and propose an epistemic uncertainty-aware planning method, called \emph{robust imitative planning} (RIP). Our method can detect and recover from some distribution shifts, reducing the overconfident and catastrophic extrapolations in OOD scenes. If the model's uncertainty is too great to suggest a safe course of action, the model can instead query the expert driver for feedback, enabling sample-efficient online adaptation, a variant of our method we term \emph{adaptive robust imitative planning} (AdaRIP). Our methods outperform current state-of-the-art approaches in the nuScenes \emph{prediction} challenge, but since no benchmark evaluating OOD detection and adaption currently exists to assess \emph{control}, we introduce an autonomous car novel-scene benchmark, \texttt{CARNOVEL}, to evaluate the robustness of driving agents to a suite of tasks with distribution shifts.