GRAB: An LLM-Inspired Sequence-First Click-Through Rate Prediction Modeling Paradigm

Traditional Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) face increasing bottlenecks in performance and efficiency, often struggling with generalization and long-sequence modeling. Inspired by the scaling success of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose Generative Ranking for Ads at Baidu (GRAB), an end-to-end generative framework for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. GRAB integrates a novel Causal Action-aware Multi-channel Attention (CamA) mechanism to effectively capture temporal dynamics and specific action signals within user behavior sequences. Full-scale online deployment demonstrates that GRAB significantly outperforms established DLRMs, delivering a 3.05% increase in revenue and a 3.49% rise in CTR. Furthermore, the model demonstrates desirable scaling behavior: its expressive power shows a monotonic and approximately linear improvement as longer interaction sequences are utilized.

Distribution-Aware End-to-End Embedding for Streaming Numerical Features in Click-Through Rate Prediction

This paper explores effective numerical feature embedding for Click-Through Rate prediction in streaming environments. Conventional static binning methods rely on offline statistics of numerical distributions; however, this inherently two-stage process often triggers semantic drift during bin boundary updates. While neural embedding methods enable end-to-end learning, they often discard explicit distributional information. Integrating such information end-to-end is challenging because streaming features often violate the i.i.d. assumption, precluding unbiased estimation of the population distribution via the expectation of order statistics. Furthermore, the critical context dependency of numerical distributions is often neglected. To this end, we propose DAES, an end-to-end framework designed to tackle numerical feature embedding in streaming training scenarios by integrating distributional information with an adaptive modulation mechanism. Specifically, we introduce an efficient reservoir-sampling-based distribution estimation method and two field-aware distribution modulation strategies to capture streaming distributions and field-dependent semantics. DAES significantly outperforms existing approaches as demonstrated by extensive offline and online experiments and has been fully deployed on a leading short-video platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users.

Modeling Cascaded Delay Feedback for Online Net Conversion Rate Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Solutions

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and business value, net conversion rate (NetCVR), defined as the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, has been proposed.Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delayed feedback process. The two cascaded delays from click to conversion and from conversion to refund have opposite effects, making traditional CVR modeling methods inapplicable. Moreover, the lack of open-source datasets and online continuous training schemes further hinders progress in this area.To address these challenges, we introduce CASCADE (Cascaded Sequences of Conversion and Delayed Refund), the first large-scale open dataset derived from the Taobao app for online continuous NetCVR prediction. Through an in-depth analysis of CASCADE, we identify three key insights: (1) NetCVR exhibits strong temporal dynamics, necessitating online continuous modeling; (2) cascaded modeling of CVR and refund rate outperforms direct NetCVR modeling; and (3) delay time, which correlates with both CVR and refund rate, is an important feature for NetCVR prediction.Based on these insights, we propose TESLA, a continuous NetCVR modeling framework featuring a CVR-refund-rate cascaded architecture, stage-wise debiasing, and a delay-time-aware ranking loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TESLA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on CASCADE, achieving absolute improvements of 12.41 percent in RI-AUC and 14.94 percent in RI-PRAUC on NetCVR prediction. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/NetCVR.

Delayed Feedback Modeling for Post-Click Gross Merchandise Volume Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Approaches

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied delayed feedback problem in CVR prediction, delayed feedback modeling for GMV prediction remains unexplored and poses greater challenges, as GMV is a continuous target, and a single click can lead to multiple purchases that cumulatively form the label. To bridge the research gap, we establish TRACE, a GMV prediction benchmark containing complete transaction sequences rising from each user click, which supports delayed feedback modeling in an online streaming manner. Our analysis and exploratory experiments on TRACE reveal two key insights: (1) the rapid evolution of the GMV label distribution necessitates modeling delayed feedback under online streaming training; (2) the label distribution of repurchase samples substantially differs from that of single-purchase samples, highlighting the need for separate modeling. Motivated by these findings, we propose RepurchasE-Aware Dual-branch prEdictoR (READER), a novel GMV modeling paradigm that selectively activates expert parameters according to repurchase predictions produced by a router. Moreover, READER dynamically calibrates the regression target to mitigate under-estimation caused by incomplete labels. Experimental results show that READER yields superior performance on TRACE over baselines, achieving a 2.19% improvement in terms of accuracy. We believe that our study will open up a new avenue for studying online delayed feedback modeling for GMV prediction, and our TRACE benchmark with the gathered insights will facilitate future research and application in this promising direction. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/OnlineGMV .

GenCI: Generative Modeling of User Interest Shift via Cohort-based Intent Learning for CTR Prediction

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction plays a pivotal role in online advertising and recommender systems. Despite notable progress in modeling user preferences from historical behaviors, two key challenges persist. First, exsiting discriminative paradigms focus on matching candidates to user history, often overfitting to historically dominant features and failing to adapt to rapid interest shifts. Second, a critical information chasm emerges from the point-wise ranking paradigm. By scoring each candidate in isolation, CTR models discard the rich contextual signal implied by the recalled set as a whole, leading to a misalignment where long-term preferences often override the user's immediate, evolving intent. To address these issues, we propose GenCI, a generative user intent framework that leverages semantic interest cohorts to model dynamic user preferences for CTR prediction. The framework first employs a generative model, trained with a next-item prediction (NTP) objective, to proactively produce candidate interest cohorts. These cohorts serve as explicit, candidate-agnostic representations of a user's immediate intent. A hierarchical candidate-aware network then injects this rich contextual signal into the ranking stage, refining them with cross-attention to align with both user history and the target item. The entire model is trained end-to-end, creating a more aligned and effective CTR prediction pipeline. Extensive experiments on three widely used datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Time Aggregation Features for XGBoost Models

This paper studies time aggregation features for XGBoost models in click-through rate prediction. The setting is the Avazu click-through rate prediction dataset with strict out-of-time splits and a no-lookahead feature constraint. Features for hour H use only impressions from hours strictly before H. This paper compares a strong time-aware target encoding baseline to models augmented with entity history time aggregation under several window designs. Across two rolling-tail folds on a deterministic ten percent sample, a trailing window specification improves ROC AUC by about 0.0066 to 0.0082 and PR AUC by about 0.0084 to 0.0094 relative to target encoding alone. Within the time aggregation design grid, event count windows provide the only consistent improvement over trailing windows, and the gain is small. Gap windows and bucketized windows underperform simple trailing windows in this dataset and protocol. These results support a practical default of trailing windows, with an optional event count window when marginal ROC AUC gains matter.

GAP-Net: Calibrating User Intent via Gated Adaptive Progressive Learning for CTR Prediction

Sequential user behavior modeling is pivotal for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction yet is hindered by three intrinsic bottlenecks: (1) the "Attention Sink" phenomenon, where standard Softmax compels the model to allocate probability mass to noisy behaviors; (2) the Static Query Assumption, which overlooks dynamic shifts in user intent driven by real-time contexts; and (3) Rigid View Aggregation, which fails to adaptively weight heterogeneous temporal signals according to the decision context. To bridge these gaps, we propose GAP-Net (Gated Adaptive Progressive Network), a unified framework establishing a "Triple Gating" architecture to progressively refine information from micro-level features to macro-level views. GAP-Net operates through three integrated mechanisms: (1) Adaptive Sparse-Gated Attention (ASGA) employs micro-level gating to enforce sparsity, effectively suppressing massive noise activations; (2) Gated Cascading Query Calibration (GCQC) dynamically aligns user intent by bridging real-time triggers and long-term memories via a meso-level cascading channel; and (3) Context-Gated Denoising Fusion (CGDF) performs macro-level modulation to orchestrate the aggregation of multi-view sequences. Extensive experiments on industrial datasets demonstrate that GAP-Net achieves substantial improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, exhibiting superior robustness against interaction noise and intent drift.

COFFEE: COdesign Framework for Feature Enriched Embeddings in Ads-Ranking Systems

Diverse and enriched data sources are essential for commercial ads-recommendation models to accurately assess user interest both before and after engagement with content. While extended user-engagement histories can improve the prediction of user interests, it is equally important to embed activity sequences from multiple sources to ensure freshness of user and ad-representations, following scaling law principles. In this paper, we present a novel three-dimensional framework for enhancing user-ad representations without increasing model inference or serving complexity. The first dimension examines the impact of incorporating diverse event sources, the second considers the benefits of longer user histories, and the third focuses on enriching data with additional event attributes and multi-modal embeddings. We assess the return on investment (ROI) of our source enrichment framework by comparing organic user engagement sources, such as content viewing, with ad-impression sources. The proposed method can boost the area under curve (AUC) and the slope of scaling curves for ad-impression sources by 1.56 to 2 times compared to organic usage sources even for short online-sequence lengths of 100 to 10K. Additionally, click-through rate (CTR) prediction improves by 0.56% AUC over the baseline production ad-recommendation system when using enriched ad-impression event sources, leading to improved sequence scaling resolutions for longer and offline user-ad representations.

Authors Should Label Their Own Documents

Third-party annotation is the status quo for labeling text, but egocentric information such as sentiment and belief can at best only be approximated by a third-person proxy. We introduce author labeling, an annotation technique where the writer of the document itself annotates the data at the moment of creation. We collaborate with a commercial chatbot with over 20,000 users to deploy an author labeling annotation system. This system identifies task-relevant queries, generates on-the-fly labeling questions, and records authors' answers in real time. We train and deploy an online-learning model architecture for product recommendation with author-labeled data to improve performance. We train our model to minimize the prediction error on questions generated for a set of predetermined subjective beliefs using author-labeled responses. Our model achieves a 537% improvement in click-through rate compared to an industry advertising baseline running concurrently. We then compare the quality and practicality of author labeling to three traditional annotation approaches for sentiment analysis and find author labeling to be higher quality, faster to acquire, and cheaper. These findings reinforce existing literature that annotations, especially for egocentric and subjective beliefs, are significantly higher quality when labeled by the author rather than a third party. To facilitate broader scientific adoption, we release an author labeling service for the research community at https://academic.echollm.io.

From Feature Interaction to Feature Generation: A Generative Paradigm of CTR Prediction Models

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, a core task in recommendation systems, aims to estimate the probability of users clicking on items. Existing models predominantly follow a discriminative paradigm, which relies heavily on explicit interactions between raw ID embeddings. However, this paradigm inherently renders them susceptible to two critical issues: embedding dimensional collapse and information redundancy, stemming from the over-reliance on feature interactions \emph{over raw ID embeddings}. To address these limitations, we propose a novel \emph{Supervised Feature Generation (SFG)} framework, \emph{shifting the paradigm from discriminative ``feature interaction" to generative ``feature generation"}. Specifically, SFG comprises two key components: an \emph{Encoder} that constructs hidden embeddings for each feature, and a \emph{Decoder} tasked with regenerating the feature embeddings of all features from these hidden representations. Unlike existing generative approaches that adopt self-supervised losses, we introduce a supervised loss to utilize the supervised signal, \ie, click or not, in the CTR prediction task. This framework exhibits strong generalizability: it can be seamlessly integrated with most existing CTR models, reformulating them under the generative paradigm. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SFG consistently mitigates embedding collapse and reduces information redundancy, while yielding substantial performance gains across various datasets and base models. The code is available at https://github.com/USTC-StarTeam/GE4Rec.