DUET -- Dual User Embedding Transformers for Offsite Conversion Prediction

Offsite conversion rate (OCVR) prediction is an important ranking problem in computational recommendation systems. This task presents a modeling challenge: click signals are abundant and exhibit short temporal horizons, whereas conversion signals are inherently sparse, long-delayed, and frequently unattributed. Despite these statistical disparities, both signal types must inform models that operate within strict serving-latency constraints. Prior pre-training approaches address this heterogeneity with a single, undifferentiated encoder applied uniformly across both data streams. We propose DUET (Dual User Embedding Transformers), a framework that explicitly partitions user behavioral data into two domain-coherent streams -- clicks and conversions -- and pre-trains dedicated transformer encoders with architectures tailored to each stream's statistical characteristics: multi-layer self-attention for the dense click stream and interleaved cross- and self-attention for the sparse conversion stream. The resulting complementary embeddings are jointly consumed by a downstream ranker without exceeding serving-latency budgets. Evaluation demonstrates up to 0.38% normalized entropy (NE) reduction relative to the strongest baseline, and A/B test shows consistent improvements in OCVR prediction accuracy.

Dual-Stream MLP is All You Need for CTR Prediction

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction holds a pivotal role in online advertising and recommendation systems, where even small improvements can significantly boost revenue. Existing research primarily focuses on designing dual-stream architectures to capture effective complex feature interactions from both explicit and implicit perspectives. However, these approaches are faced with two major challenges: 1) the high complexity of feature interaction learning, which increases computational demands and the overfitting risk, and 2) the imbalance between explicit and implicit modules, where one module's output may dominate the final prediction. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose Dual-Stream MLP (DS-MLP), a novel feature interaction framework for the CTR prediction task. Specially, it leverages knowledge distillation to consolidate the capacity of learning explicit feature interaction into a main MLP network, while a parallel MLP simultaneously captures implicit feature interactions as a complement. To effectively optimize the dual-stream MLP architecture, we further design a specific learning approach with two alignment strategies for enhancing the compatibility of the two MLP components. Experiments demonstrate that DS-MLP, though merely a vanilla MLP structure (the final model), can achieve state-of-the-art performance across three widely used benchmarks, offering a scalable and efficient solution for large-scale recommendation systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/DS-MLP.

Quantizing Intent: Cross-Domain Semantic IDs from Organic Activity for Industrial Ranking

Ads click-through rate (CTR) prediction is constrained by sparse user supervision: most users engage with ads infrequently while generating dense behavioral evidence in organic surfaces such as feed. Transferring these cross-domain signals into ads ranking is difficult due to domain mismatch, serving cost, and production complexity. We introduce cross-domain user Semantic IDs (SIDs) derived from organic feed activity and show that behavioral activity richness governs cross-domain transfer quality: SIDs from user profile text yield +0.036% AUC, SIDs from an activity-tuned LLaMA-based user embedding model yield +0.107%, and SIDs from direct feed activity behavioral embeddings yield +0.213%. We further propose RQ-FSQ, a residual finite scalar quantization method that discretizes pre-trained embeddings while matching dense-embedding AUC at substantially smaller storage. Across two heterogeneous sources, RQ-FSQ matches or slightly exceeds dense source embeddings, achieving +0.351% AUC for Feed Activity at about 30x smaller storage and +0.265% AUC for Activity-Tuned LLaMA at about 280x smaller storage. We also introduce a Hierarchical Discrete Embedding module that encodes multi-level SIDs through prefix n-gram sparse embedding tables trained end-to-end under the CTR objective. In a large-scale industrial ads ranking system, cold-start segment analysis shows gains up to +1.522% for users with near-zero ad interaction history, validating cross-domain behavioral transfer as an effective bridge for sparse-history ranking.

Model Monotonicity in Autobidding Auctions: When Do Better Predictions Lead to Better Outcomes?

Online advertising platforms rely on machine learning models to predict click-through rates (pCTR) and conversion rates (pCVR) for auction mechanisms. We introduce a novel framework to study the interaction between recommender system model quality, auction format, and autobidder behavior. We formalize when model improvements -- defined via a refinement relation inspired by filtrations in probability theory -- lead to improvements in platform-level Evaluation Criteria Metrics (ECM) such as revenue, welfare, or liquid welfare. Our main contributions are: (1) a formal definition of model improvement based on cluster refinement, and (2) a systematic characterization of ECM monotonicity across different combinations of bidder types (tCPA, max-CPA), auction formats (first-price, second-price, VCG), and budget constraints. We show that first-price auctions with uniform bidding guarantee revenue monotonicity for tCPA bidders without budgets (via Jensen's inequality), while second-price auctions and budget constraints can break this property. We provide full numerical constructions for the non-monotonicity results. Our findings have practical implications for advertising platforms seeking to align model improvements with business outcomes.

Selective Test-Time Compute Scaling for Click-Through Rate Prediction via Uncertainty-Triggered Feature Path Exploration

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature combinations well-represented in training yield confident predictions, while sparsely observed ones produce unreliable outputs. Existing training-phase solutions such as adaptive gating learn a fixed selection function subject to the same sparsity, offering no per-instance recourse at deployment.We propose UTTSI (Uncertainty-Triggered Test-Time Selective Inference), a training-free model-agnostic framework that scales inference depth proportionally to per-instance uncertainty. A dual-signal estimator combining model logit confidence with a data-level frequency prior distinguishes epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric ambiguity. Every instance undergoes adaptive feature filtering to remove unreliable embeddings; uncertain instances additionally receive stochastic feature-path explorations whose predictions are aggregated via consistency-weighted ensembling. Confident instances bypass exploration entirely, keeping average overhead at approximately $2.8\times$ base model cost with worst-case latency unchanged.Experiments on four datasets with three backbone architectures demonstrate consistent, statistically significant gains over all training-phase baselines. A seven-day online A/B test further confirms a 5.3% relative CTR gain ($p < 0.01$), establishing selective test-time compute allocation as a practical complement to training-phase advances for CTR prediction.

Self-Balancing Gradient Allocation for Heterogeneity-Aware Feature Generation in Click-Through Rate Prediction

Generative pre-training via discrete diffusion provides dense reconstruction supervision across all feature fields simultaneously, mitigating representation collapse from data sparsity in CTR prediction. However, all existing generative CTR methods share a fundamental limitation: the reconstruction objective assigns equal training weight to every feature field, ignoring the profound heterogeneity of reconstruction difficulty across high-cardinality ID fields, sparse categorical attributes, numerical values, and behavioral sequences. This causes easy fields to dominate training gradients while the hardest but most informative fields remain chronically underfit, a problem we term the generative difficulty imbalance.We propose HeteGenCTR, which resolves this imbalance through per-field learnable difficulty parameters jointly trained with the denoising network. This unified signal drives two coordinated components without additional hyperparameters: a self-balancing loss that automatically reallocates gradient budget toward harder fields with a provably stable equilibrium, and a difficulty-guided attention mechanism that suppresses the influence of already-converged easy fields while amplifying cross-field information flow toward hard fields. Both components share the same learned signal and remain mutually consistent throughout training. Experiments on five CTR benchmarks and a seven-day online A/B test demonstrate consistent, statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, with disproportionate gains for cold-start and long-tail users.

FEDIN: Frequency-Enhanced Deep Interest Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction

Sequential recommendation models often struggle to capture latent periodic patterns in user interests, primarily due to the noise inherent in time-domain behavioral data. While frequency-domain analysis offers a global perspective to address this, existing approaches typically treat user sequences in isolation, overlooking the crucial context of the target item. In this work, we present a novel empirical observation: user attention scores exhibit distinct spectral entropy distributions when conditioned on positive versus negative target items. Specifically, true user interests manifest as highly concentrated spectral patterns with lower entropy in the frequency domain, whereas irrelevant behaviors appear as high-entropy noise. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Frequency-Enhanced Deep Interest Network (FEDIN). FEDIN introduces a frequency-domain branch that utilizes a target-aware spectrum filtering mechanism to isolate these periodic interest signals. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that FEDIN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation baselines, demonstrating superior robustness against noise. We have released our code at: https://github.com/otokoneko/FEDIN.

LoopCTR: Unlocking the Loop Scaling Power for Click-Through Rate Prediction

Scaling Transformer-based click-through rate (CTR) models by stacking more parameters brings growing computational and storage overhead, creating a widening gap between scaling ambitions and the stringent industrial deployment constraints. We propose LoopCTR, which introduces a loop scaling paradigm that increases training-time computation through recursive reuse of shared model layers, decoupling computation from parameter growth. LoopCTR adopts a sandwich architecture enhanced with Hyper-Connected Residuals and Mixture-of-Experts, and employs process supervision at every loop depth to encode multi-loop benefits into the shared parameters. This enables a train-multi-loop, infer-zero-loop strategy where a single forward pass without any loop already outperforms all baselines. Experiments on three public benchmarks and one industrial dataset demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. Oracle analysis further reveals 0.02--0.04 AUC of untapped headroom, with models trained with fewer loops exhibiting higher oracle ceilings, pointing to a promising frontier for adaptive inference.

Follow the TRACE: Exploiting Post-Click Trajectories for Online Delayed Conversion Rate Prediction

Delayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click behaviors evolve over the observation period. To overcome this limitation, we formalize this evolution as feedback trajectory and propose TRACE. Instead of forcing hard labels on unrevealed samples, our method evaluates how well the accumulated feedback status aligns with conversion versus non-conversion, dynamically refining posteriors without waiting for final outcomes. To counteract early-stage trajectory sparsity, we further design a reliability-gated retrospective completer that leverages full-lifecycle data to provide adaptive posterior guidance for unrevealed samples. Extensive experiments validate TRACE's superiority over state-of-the-art baselines and confirm the retrospective completion module as a model-agnostic enhancer for existing systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LunaZhangxy/TRACE.

Similar Users-Augmented Interest Network

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is one of the core tasks in recommender systems. User behavior sequences, as one of the most effective features, can accurately reflect user preferences and significantly improve prediction accuracy. Richer behavior sequences often enable more comprehensive user profiling, and recent studies have shown that scaling the length of user behavior sequence can yield substantial gains in CTR. However, due to the widespread sparsity in recommender systems, incomplete behavior sequences are common in real-world scenarios. Existing sequential modeling methods often rely solely on the target user's own behavior, and therefore struggle in such scenarios. This paper proposes a novel method called SUIN (Similar Users-augmented Interest Network), which enhances the target user's behavior sequence with behaviors from similar users to enhance the user profile for CTR prediction. Specifically, we use behavior embeddings encoded by a sequence encoder to retrieve users with similar behaviors from a user retrieval pool. The behavior sequences of these similar users are then concatenated with that of the target user in descending order of similarity to construct an augmented sequence. Given that the augmented sequence contains behaviors from multiple users, we propose a user-specific target-aware position encoding, which identifies the source user of each behavior and captures its relative position to the target item. Furthermore, to mitigate the empirically observed noise in similar users' behaviors, we design a user-aware target attention that jointly considers item-item and user-user correlations, fully exploiting the potential of the augmented behavior sequence. Comprehensive experiments on widely-used short-term and long-term sequence benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art sequential CTR models.