FinZero: Launching Multi-modal Financial Time Series Forecast with Large Reasoning Model

Financial time series forecasting is both highly significant and challenging. Previous approaches typically standardized time series data before feeding it into forecasting models, but this encoding process inherently leads to a loss of important information. Moreover, past time series models generally require fixed numbers of variables or lookback window lengths, which further limits the scalability of time series forecasting. Besides, the interpretability and the uncertainty in forecasting remain areas requiring further research, as these factors directly impact the reliability and practical value of predictions. To address these issues, we first construct a diverse financial image-text dataset (FVLDB) and develop the Uncertainty-adjusted Group Relative Policy Optimization (UARPO) method to enable the model not only output predictions but also analyze the uncertainty of those predictions. We then proposed FinZero, a multimodal pre-trained model finetuned by UARPO to perform reasoning, prediction, and analytical understanding on the FVLDB financial time series. Extensive experiments validate that FinZero exhibits strong adaptability and scalability. After fine-tuning with UARPO, FinZero achieves an approximate 13.48\% improvement in prediction accuracy over GPT-4o in the high-confidence group, demonstrating the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning in multimodal large model, including in financial time series forecasting tasks.

Any-Step Density Ratio Estimation via Interval-Annealed Secant Alignment

Estimating density ratios is a fundamental problem in machine learning, but existing methods often trade off accuracy for efficiency. We propose \textit{Interval-annealed Secant Alignment Density Ratio Estimation (ISA-DRE)}, a framework that enables accurate, any-step estimation without numerical integration. Instead of modeling infinitesimal tangents as in prior methods, ISA-DRE learns a global secant function, defined as the expectation of all tangents over an interval, with provably lower variance, making it more suitable for neural approximation. This is made possible by the \emph{Secant Alignment Identity}, a self-consistency condition that formally connects the secant with its underlying tangent representations. To mitigate instability during early training, we introduce \emph{Contraction Interval Annealing}, a curriculum strategy that gradually expands the alignment interval during training. This process induces a contraction mapping, which improves convergence and training stability. Empirically, ISA-DRE achieves competitive accuracy with significantly fewer function evaluations compared to prior methods, resulting in much faster inference and making it well suited for real-time and interactive applications.

EvolveSignal: A Large Language Model Powered Coding Agent for Discovering Traffic Signal Control Algorithms

In traffic engineering, the fixed-time traffic signal control remains widely used for its low cost, stability, and interpretability. However, its design depends on hand-crafted formulas (e.g., Webster) and manual re-timing by engineers to adapt to demand changes, which is labor-intensive and often yields suboptimal results under heterogeneous or congested conditions. This paper introduces the EvolveSignal, a large language models (LLMs) powered coding agent to automatically discover new traffic signal control algorithms. We formulate the problem as program synthesis, where candidate algorithms are represented as Python functions with fixed input-output structures, and iteratively optimized through external evaluations (e.g., a traffic simulator) and evolutionary search. Experiments on a signalized intersection demonstrate that the discovered algorithms outperform Webster's baseline, reducing average delay by 20.1% and average stops by 47.1%. Beyond performance, ablation and incremental analyses reveal that EvolveSignal modifications-such as adjusting cycle length bounds, incorporating right-turn demand, and rescaling green allocations-can offer practically meaningful insights for traffic engineers. This work opens a new research direction by leveraging AI for algorithm design in traffic signal control, bridging program synthesis with transportation engineering.

See Beyond a Single View: Multi-Attribution Learning Leads to Better Conversion Rate Prediction

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a core component of online advertising systems, where the attribution mechanisms-rules for allocating conversion credit across user touchpoints-fundamentally determine label generation and model optimization. While many industrial platforms support diverse attribution mechanisms (e.g., First-Click, Last-Click, Linear, and Data-Driven Multi-Touch Attribution), conventional approaches restrict model training to labels from a single production-critical attribution mechanism, discarding complementary signals in alternative attribution perspectives. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multi-Attribution Learning (MAL) framework for CVR prediction that integrates signals from multiple attribution perspectives to better capture the underlying patterns driving user conversions. Specifically, MAL is a joint learning framework consisting of two core components: the Attribution Knowledge Aggregator (AKA) and the Primary Target Predictor (PTP). AKA is implemented as a multi-task learner that integrates knowledge extracted from diverse attribution labels. PTP, in contrast, focuses on the task of generating well-calibrated conversion probabilities that align with the system-optimized attribution metric (e.g., CVR under the Last-Click attribution), ensuring direct compatibility with industrial deployment requirements. Additionally, we propose CAT, a novel training strategy that leverages the Cartesian product of all attribution label combinations to generate enriched supervision signals. This design substantially enhances the performance of the attribution knowledge aggregator. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the superiority of MAL over single-attribution learning baselines, achieving +0.51% GAUC improvement on offline metrics. Online experiments demonstrate that MAL achieved a +2.6% increase in ROI (Return on Investment).

Creative4U: MLLMs-based Advertising Creative Image Selector with Comparative Reasoning

Creative image in advertising is the heart and soul of e-commerce platform. An eye-catching creative image can enhance the shopping experience for users, boosting income for advertisers and advertising revenue for platforms. With the advent of AIGC technology, advertisers can produce large quantities of creative images at minimal cost. However, they struggle to assess the creative quality to select. Existing methods primarily focus on creative ranking, which fails to address the need for explainable creative selection. In this work, we propose the first paradigm for explainable creative assessment and selection. Powered by multimodal large language models (MLLMs), our approach integrates the assessment and selection of creative images into a natural language generation task. To facilitate this research, we construct CreativePair, the first comparative reasoning-induced creative dataset featuring 8k annotated image pairs, with each sample including a label indicating which image is superior. Additionally, we introduce Creative4U (pronounced Creative for You), a MLLMs-based creative selector that takes into account users' interests. Through Reason-to-Select RFT, which includes supervised fine-tuning with Chain-of-Thought (CoT-SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) based reinforcement learning, Creative4U is able to evaluate and select creative images accurately. Both offline and online experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and dataset will be made public to advance research and industrial applications.

Neural Bridge Processes

Learning stochastic functions from partially observed context-target pairs is a fundamental problem in probabilistic modeling. Traditional models like Gaussian Processes (GPs) face scalability issues with large datasets and assume Gaussianity, limiting their applicability. While Neural Processes (NPs) offer more flexibility, they struggle with capturing complex, multi-modal target distributions. Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs) enhance expressivity through a learned diffusion process but rely solely on conditional signals in the denoising network, resulting in weak input coupling from an unconditional forward process and semantic mismatch at the diffusion endpoint. In this work, we propose Neural Bridge Processes (NBPs), a novel method for modeling stochastic functions where inputs x act as dynamic anchors for the entire diffusion trajectory. By reformulating the forward kernel to explicitly depend on x, NBP enforces a constrained path that strictly terminates at the supervised target. This approach not only provides stronger gradient signals but also guarantees endpoint coherence. We validate NBPs on synthetic data, EEG signal regression and image regression tasks, achieving substantial improvements over baselines. These results underscore the effectiveness of DDPM-style bridge sampling in enhancing both performance and theoretical consistency for structured prediction tasks.

MeteorPred: A Meteorological Multimodal Large Model and Dataset for Severe Weather Event Prediction

Timely and accurate severe weather warnings are critical for disaster mitigation. However, current forecasting systems remain heavily reliant on manual expert interpretation, introducing subjectivity and significant operational burdens. With the rapid development of AI technologies, the end-to-end "AI weather station" is gradually emerging as a new trend in predicting severe weather events. Three core challenges impede the development of end-to-end AI severe weather system: (1) scarcity of severe weather event samples; (2) imperfect alignment between high-dimensional meteorological data and textual warnings; (3) existing multimodal language models are unable to handle high-dimensional meteorological data and struggle to fully capture the complex dependencies across temporal sequences, vertical pressure levels, and spatial dimensions. To address these challenges, we introduce MP-Bench, the first large-scale temporal multimodal dataset for severe weather events prediction, comprising 421,363 pairs of raw multi-year meteorological data and corresponding text caption, covering a wide range of severe weather scenarios across China. On top of this dataset, we develop a meteorology multimodal large model (MMLM) that directly ingests 4D meteorological inputs. In addition, it is designed to accommodate the unique characteristics of 4D meteorological data flow, incorporating three plug-and-play adaptive fusion modules that enable dynamic feature extraction and integration across temporal sequences, vertical pressure layers, and spatial dimensions. Extensive experiments on MP-Bench demonstrate that MMLM performs exceptionally well across multiple tasks, highlighting its effectiveness in severe weather understanding and marking a key step toward realizing automated, AI-driven weather forecasting systems. Our source code and dataset will be made publicly available.

Bidding-Aware Retrieval for Multi-Stage Consistency in Online Advertising

Online advertising systems typically use a cascaded architecture to manage massive requests and candidate volumes, where the ranking stages allocate traffic based on eCPM (predicted CTR $\times$ Bid). With the increasing popularity of auto-bidding strategies, the inconsistency between the computationally sensitive retrieval stage and the ranking stages becomes more pronounced, as the former cannot access precise, real-time bids for the vast ad corpus. This discrepancy leads to sub-optimal platform revenue and advertiser outcomes. To tackle this problem, we propose Bidding-Aware Retrieval (BAR), a model-based retrieval framework that addresses multi-stage inconsistency by incorporating ad bid value into the retrieval scoring function. The core innovation is Bidding-Aware Modeling, incorporating bid signals through monotonicity-constrained learning and multi-task distillation to ensure economically coherent representations, while Asynchronous Near-Line Inference enables real-time updates to the embedding for market responsiveness. Furthermore, the Task-Attentive Refinement module selectively enhances feature interactions to disentangle user interest and commercial value signals. Extensive offline experiments and full-scale deployment across Alibaba's display advertising platform validated BAR's efficacy: 4.32% platform revenue increase with 22.2% impression lift for positively-operated advertisements.

Aime: Towards Fully-Autonomous Multi-Agent Framework

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) are emerging as a powerful paradigm for solving complex, multifaceted problems. However, the potential of these systems is often constrained by the prevalent plan-and-execute framework, which suffers from critical limitations: rigid plan execution, static agent capabilities, and inefficient communication. These weaknesses hinder their adaptability and robustness in dynamic environments. This paper introduces Aime, a novel multi-agent framework designed to overcome these challenges through dynamic, reactive planning and execution. Aime replaces the conventional static workflow with a fluid and adaptive architecture. Its core innovations include: (1) a Dynamic Planner that continuously refines the overall strategy based on real-time execution feedback; (2) an Actor Factory that implements Dynamic Actor instantiation, assembling specialized agents on-demand with tailored tools and knowledge; and (3) a centralized Progress Management Module that serves as a single source of truth for coherent, system-wide state awareness. We empirically evaluated Aime on a diverse suite of benchmarks spanning general reasoning (GAIA), software engineering (SWE-bench Verified), and live web navigation (WebVoyager). The results demonstrate that Aime consistently outperforms even highly specialized state-of-the-art agents in their respective domains. Its superior adaptability and task success rate establish Aime as a more resilient and effective foundation for multi-agent collaboration.

Reasoning Meets Personalization: Unleashing the Potential of Large Reasoning Model for Personalized Generation

Personalization is a critical task in modern intelligent systems, with applications spanning diverse domains, including interactions with large language models (LLMs). Recent advances in reasoning capabilities have significantly enhanced LLMs, enabling unprecedented performance in tasks such as mathematics and coding. However, their potential for personalization tasks remains underexplored. In this paper, we present the first systematic evaluation of large reasoning models (LRMs) for personalization tasks. Surprisingly, despite generating more tokens, LRMs do not consistently outperform general-purpose LLMs, especially in retrieval-intensive scenarios where their advantages diminish. Our analysis identifies three key limitations: divergent thinking, misalignment of response formats, and ineffective use of retrieved information. To address these challenges, we propose Reinforced Reasoning for Personalization (\model), a novel framework that incorporates a hierarchical reasoning thought template to guide LRMs in generating structured outputs. Additionally, we introduce a reasoning process intervention method to enforce adherence to designed reasoning patterns, enhancing alignment. We also propose a cross-referencing mechanism to ensure consistency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing techniques.