GraphPub: Generation of Differential Privacy Graph with High Availability

In recent years, with the rapid development of graph neural networks (GNN), more and more graph datasets have been published for GNN tasks. However, when an upstream data owner publishes graph data, there are often many privacy concerns, because many real-world graph data contain sensitive information like person's friend list. Differential privacy (DP) is a common method to protect privacy, but due to the complex topological structure of graph data, applying DP on graphs often affects the message passing and aggregation of GNN models, leading to a decrease in model accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel graph edge protection framework, graph publisher (GraphPub), which can protect graph topology while ensuring that the availability of data is basically unchanged. Through reverse learning and the encoder-decoder mechanism, we search for some false edges that do not have a large negative impact on the aggregation of node features, and use them to replace some real edges. The modified graph will be published, which is difficult to distinguish between real and false data. Sufficient experiments prove that our framework achieves model accuracy close to the original graph with an extremely low privacy budget.

CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar data plays a crucial role in extreme weather prediction and has broad implications for disaster management. Despite progresses have been made based on deep learning, two key challenges of precipitation nowcasting are not well-solved: (i) the modeling of complex precipitation system evolutions with different scales, and (ii) accurate forecasts for extreme precipitation. In this work, we propose CasCast, a cascaded framework composed of a deterministic and a probabilistic part to decouple the predictions for mesoscale precipitation distributions and small-scale patterns. Then, we explore training the cascaded framework at the high resolution and conducting the probabilistic modeling in a low dimensional latent space with a frame-wise-guided diffusion transformer for enhancing the optimization of extreme events while reducing computational costs. Extensive experiments on three benchmark radar precipitation datasets show that CasCast achieves competitive performance. Especially, CasCast significantly surpasses the baseline (up to +91.8%) for regional extreme-precipitation nowcasting.

ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast

Data-driven weather forecast based on machine learning (ML) has experienced rapid development and demonstrated superior performance in the global medium-range forecast compared to traditional physics-based dynamical models. However, most of these ML models struggle with accurately predicting extreme weather, which is closely related to the extreme value prediction. Through mathematical analysis, we prove that the use of symmetric losses, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE), leads to biased predictions and underestimation of extreme values. To address this issue, we introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. Furthermore, we introduce a training-free extreme value enhancement strategy named ExEnsemble, which increases the variance of pixel values and improves the forecast robustness. Combined with an advanced global weather forecast model, extensive experiments show that our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.