Causal Discovery-Driven Change Point Detection in Time Series

Change point detection in time series seeks to identify times when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human-activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate time series, this typically involves examining the joint distribution of high-dimensional data: If any one variable changes, the whole time series is assumed to have changed. However, in practical applications, we may be interested only in certain components of the time series, exploring abrupt changes in their distributions in the presence of other time series. Here, assuming an underlying structural causal model that governs the time-series data generation, we address this problem by proposing a two-stage non-parametric algorithm that first learns parts of the causal structure through constraint-based discovery methods. The algorithm then uses conditional relative Pearson divergence estimation to identify the change points. The conditional relative Pearson divergence quantifies the distribution disparity between consecutive segments in the time series, while the causal discovery method enables a focus on the causal mechanism, facilitating access to independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Theoretically, the typical assumption of samples being IID in conventional change point detection methods can be relaxed based on the Causal Markov Condition. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we validate the correctness and utility of our approach.

Causal Discovery in Semi-Stationary Time Series

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical science. Here, we consider this problem for a class of non-stationary time series. The structural causal model (SCM) of this type of time series, called the semi-stationary time series, exhibits that a finite number of different causal mechanisms occur sequentially and periodically across time. This model holds considerable practical utility because it can represent periodicity, including common occurrences such as seasonality and diurnal variation. We propose a constraint-based, non-parametric algorithm for discovering causal relations in this setting. The resulting algorithm, PCMCI$_{\Omega}$, can capture the alternating and recurring changes in the causal mechanisms and then identify the underlying causal graph with conditional independence (CI) tests. We show that this algorithm is sound in identifying causal relations on discrete time series. We validate the algorithm with extensive experiments on continuous and discrete simulated data. We also apply our algorithm to a real-world climate dataset.

Learning to Reduce: Towards Improving Performance of Large Language Models on Structured Data

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been achieving competent performance on a wide range of downstream tasks, yet existing work shows that inference on structured data is challenging for LLMs. This is because LLMs need to either understand long structured data or select the most relevant evidence before inference, and both approaches are not trivial. This paper proposes a framework, Learning to Reduce, that fine-tunes a language model with On-Policy Learning to generate a reduced version of an input structured data. When compared to state-of-the-art LLMs like GPT-4, Learning to Reduce not only achieves outstanding performance in reducing the input, but shows generalizability on different datasets. We further show that the model fine-tuned with our framework helps LLMs better perform on table QA tasks especially when the context is longer.

ARTIST: Improving the Generation of Text-rich Images by Disentanglement

Diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generating a broad spectrum of visual content, yet their proficiency in rendering text is still limited: they often generate inaccurate characters or words that fail to blend well with the underlying image. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a new framework named ARTIST. This framework incorporates a dedicated textual diffusion model to specifically focus on the learning of text structures. Initially, we pretrain this textual model to capture the intricacies of text representation. Subsequently, we finetune a visual diffusion model, enabling it to assimilate textual structure information from the pretrained textual model. This disentangled architecture design and the training strategy significantly enhance the text rendering ability of the diffusion models for text-rich image generation. Additionally, we leverage the capabilities of pretrained large language models to better interpret user intentions, contributing to improved generation quality. Empirical results on the MARIO-Eval benchmark underscore the effectiveness of the proposed method, showing an improvement of up to 15\% in various metrics.

Calibrating Reasoning in Language Models with Internal Consistency

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in various reasoning tasks, aided by techniques like chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting that elicits verbalized reasoning. However, LLMs often generate text with obvious mistakes and contradictions, raising doubts about their ability to robustly process and utilize generated rationales. In this work, we investigate CoT reasoning in LLMs through the lens of internal representations, focusing on how these representations are influenced by generated rationales. Our preliminary analysis reveals that while generated rationales improve answer accuracy, inconsistencies emerge between the model's internal representations in middle layers and those in final layers, potentially undermining the reliability of their reasoning processes. To address this, we propose internal consistency as a measure of the model's confidence by examining the agreement of latent predictions decoded from intermediate layers. Extensive empirical studies across different models and datasets demonstrate that internal consistency effectively distinguishes between correct and incorrect reasoning paths. Motivated by this, we propose a new approach to calibrate CoT reasoning by up-weighting reasoning paths with high internal consistency, resulting in a significant boost in reasoning performance. Further analysis uncovers distinct patterns in attention and feed-forward modules across layers, providing insights into the emergence of internal inconsistency. In summary, our results demonstrate the potential of using internal representations for self-evaluation of LLMs.

Yuan 2.0-M32: Mixture of Experts with Attention Router

Yuan 2.0-M32, with a similar base architecture as Yuan-2.0 2B, uses a mixture-of-experts architecture with 32 experts of which 2 experts are active. A new router network, Attention Router, is proposed and adopted for a more efficient selection of experts, which improves the accuracy compared to the model with classical router network. Yuan 2.0-M32 is trained with 2000B tokens from scratch, and the training computation consumption is only 9.25% of a dense model at the same parameter scale. Yuan 2.0-M32 demonstrates competitive capability on coding, math, and various domains of expertise, with only 3.7B active parameters of 40B in total, and 7.4 GFlops forward computation per token, both of which are only 1/19 of Llama3-70B. Yuan 2.0-M32 surpass Llama3-70B on MATH and ARC-Challenge benchmark, with accuracy of 55.89 and 95.8 respectively. The models and source codes of Yuan 2.0-M32 are released at Github1.

Self-Distillation Improves DNA Sequence Inference

Self-supervised pretraining (SSP) has been recognized as a method to enhance prediction accuracy in various downstream tasks. However, its efficacy for DNA sequences remains somewhat constrained. This limitation stems primarily from the fact that most existing SSP approaches in genomics focus on masked language modeling of individual sequences, neglecting the crucial aspect of encoding statistics across multiple sequences. To overcome this challenge, we introduce an innovative deep neural network model, which incorporates collaborative learning between a `student' and a `teacher' subnetwork. In this model, the student subnetwork employs masked learning on nucleotides and progressively adapts its parameters to the teacher subnetwork through an exponential moving average approach. Concurrently, both subnetworks engage in contrastive learning, deriving insights from two augmented representations of the input sequences. This self-distillation process enables our model to effectively assimilate both contextual information from individual sequences and distributional data across the sequence population. We validated our approach with preliminary pretraining using the human reference genome, followed by applying it to 20 downstream inference tasks. The empirical results from these experiments demonstrate that our novel method significantly boosts inference performance across the majority of these tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wiedersehne/FinDNA.

Beyond Chain-of-Thought: A Survey of Chain-of-X Paradigms for LLMs

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) has been a widely adopted prompting method, eliciting impressive reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Inspired by the sequential thought structure of CoT, a number of Chain-of-X (CoX) methods have been developed to address various challenges across diverse domains and tasks involving LLMs. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of Chain-of-X methods for LLMs in different contexts. Specifically, we categorize them by taxonomies of nodes, i.e., the X in CoX, and application tasks. We also discuss the findings and implications of existing CoX methods, as well as potential future directions. Our survey aims to serve as a detailed and up-to-date resource for researchers seeking to apply the idea of CoT to broader scenarios.

Learn When to Trust Language Models: A Privacy-Centric Adaptive Model-Aware Approach

Retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) have been remarkably competent in various NLP tasks. Despite their great success, the knowledge provided by the retrieval process is not always useful for improving the model prediction, since in some samples LLMs may already be quite knowledgeable and thus be able to answer the question correctly without retrieval. Aiming to save the cost of retrieval, previous work has proposed to determine when to do/skip the retrieval in a data-aware manner by analyzing the LLMs' pretraining data. However, these data-aware methods pose privacy risks and memory limitations, especially when requiring access to sensitive or extensive pretraining data. Moreover, these methods offer limited adaptability under fine-tuning or continual learning settings. We hypothesize that token embeddings are able to capture the model's intrinsic knowledge, which offers a safer and more straightforward way to judge the need for retrieval without the privacy risks associated with accessing pre-training data. Moreover, it alleviates the need to retain all the data utilized during model pre-training, necessitating only the upkeep of the token embeddings. Extensive experiments and in-depth analyses demonstrate the superiority of our model-aware approach.

Hallucination Diversity-Aware Active Learning for Text Summarization

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown propensity to generate hallucinated outputs, i.e., texts that are factually incorrect or unsupported. Existing methods for alleviating hallucinations typically require costly human annotations to identify and correct hallucinations in LLM outputs. Moreover, most of these methods focus on a specific type of hallucination, e.g., entity or token errors, which limits their effectiveness in addressing various types of hallucinations exhibited in LLM outputs. To our best knowledge, in this paper we propose the first active learning framework to alleviate LLM hallucinations, reducing costly human annotations of hallucination needed. By measuring fine-grained hallucinations from errors in semantic frame, discourse and content verifiability in text summarization, we propose HAllucination Diversity-Aware Sampling (HADAS) to select diverse hallucinations for annotations in active learning for LLM finetuning. Extensive experiments on three datasets and different backbone models demonstrate advantages of our method in effectively and efficiently mitigating LLM hallucinations.