What User Behaviors Make the Differences During the Process of Visual Analytics?

The understanding of visual analytics process can benefit visualization researchers from multiple aspects, including improving visual designs and developing advanced interaction functions. However, the log files of user behaviors are still hard to analyze due to the complexity of sensemaking and our lack of knowledge on the related user behaviors. This work presents a study on a comprehensive data collection of user behaviors, and our analysis approach with time-series classification methods. We have chosen a classical visualization application, Covid-19 data analysis, with common analysis tasks covering geo-spatial, time-series and multi-attributes. Our user study collects user behaviors on a diverse set of visualization tasks with two comparable systems, desktop and immersive visualizations. We summarize the classification results with three time-series machine learning algorithms at two scales, and explore the influences of behavior features. Our results reveal that user behaviors can be distinguished during the process of visual analytics and there is a potentially strong association between the physical behaviors of users and the visualization tasks they perform. We also demonstrate the usage of our models by interpreting open sessions of visual analytics, which provides an automatic way to study sensemaking without tedious manual annotations.

Learning Multi-Frequency Partial Correlation Graphs

Despite the large research effort devoted to learning dependencies between time series, the state of the art still faces a major limitation: existing methods learn partial correlations but fail to discriminate across distinct frequency bands. Motivated by many applications in which this differentiation is pivotal, we overcome this limitation by learning a block-sparse, frequency-dependent, partial correlation graph, in which layers correspond to different frequency bands, and partial correlations can occur over just a few layers. To this aim, we formulate and solve two nonconvex learning problems: the first has a closed-form solution and is suitable when there is prior knowledge about the number of partial correlations; the second hinges on an iterative solution based on successive convex approximation, and is effective for the general case where no prior knowledge is available. Numerical results on synthetic data show that the proposed methods outperform the current state of the art. Finally, the analysis of financial time series confirms that partial correlations exist only within a few frequency bands, underscoring how our methods enable the gaining of valuable insights that would be undetected without discriminating along the frequency domain.

ShapeDBA: Generating Effective Time Series Prototypes using ShapeDTW Barycenter Averaging

Time series data can be found in almost every domain, ranging from the medical field to manufacturing and wireless communication. Generating realistic and useful exemplars and prototypes is a fundamental data analysis task. In this paper, we investigate a novel approach to generating realistic and useful exemplars and prototypes for time series data. Our approach uses a new form of time series average, the ShapeDTW Barycentric Average. We therefore turn our attention to accurately generating time series prototypes with a novel approach. The existing time series prototyping approaches rely on the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) similarity measure such as DTW Barycentering Average (DBA) and SoftDBA. These last approaches suffer from a common problem of generating out-of-distribution artifacts in their prototypes. This is mostly caused by the DTW variant used and its incapability of detecting neighborhood similarities, instead it detects absolute similarities. Our proposed method, ShapeDBA, uses the ShapeDTW variant of DTW, that overcomes this issue. We chose time series clustering, a popular form of time series analysis to evaluate the outcome of ShapeDBA compared to the other prototyping approaches. Coupled with the k-means clustering algorithm, and evaluated on a total of 123 datasets from the UCR archive, our proposed averaging approach is able to achieve new state-of-the-art results in terms of Adjusted Rand Index.

High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods

These lecture notes provide an overview of existing methodologies and recent developments for estimation and inference with high dimensional time series regression models. First, we present main limit theory results for high dimensional dependent data which is relevant to covariance matrix structures as well as to dependent time series sequences. Second, we present main aspects of the asymptotic theory related to time series regression models with many covariates. Third, we discuss various applications of statistical learning methodologies for time series analysis purposes.

HypUC: Hyperfine Uncertainty Calibration with Gradient-boosted Corrections for Reliable Regression on Imbalanced Electrocardiograms

The automated analysis of medical time series, such as the electrocardiogram (ECG), electroencephalogram (EEG), pulse oximetry, etc, has the potential to serve as a valuable tool for diagnostic decisions, allowing for remote monitoring of patients and more efficient use of expensive and time-consuming medical procedures. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been demonstrated to process such signals effectively. However, previous research has primarily focused on classifying medical time series rather than attempting to regress the continuous-valued physiological parameters central to diagnosis. One significant challenge in this regard is the imbalanced nature of the dataset, as a low prevalence of abnormal conditions can lead to heavily skewed data that results in inaccurate predictions and a lack of certainty in such predictions when deployed. To address these challenges, we propose HypUC, a framework for imbalanced probabilistic regression in medical time series, making several contributions. (i) We introduce a simple kernel density-based technique to tackle the imbalanced regression problem with medical time series. (ii) Moreover, we employ a probabilistic regression framework that allows uncertainty estimation for the predicted continuous values. (iii) We also present a new approach to calibrate the predicted uncertainty further. (iv) Finally, we demonstrate a technique to use calibrated uncertainty estimates to improve the predicted continuous value and show the efficacy of the calibrated uncertainty estimates to flag unreliable predictions. HypUC is evaluated on a large, diverse, real-world dataset of ECGs collected from millions of patients, outperforming several conventional baselines on various diagnostic tasks, suggesting a potential use-case for the reliable clinical deployment of deep learning models.

Learning Beyond Similarities: Incorporating Dissimilarities between Positive Pairs in Self-Supervised Time Series Learning

By identifying similarities between successive inputs, Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods for time series analysis have demonstrated their effectiveness in encoding the inherent static characteristics of temporal data. However, an exclusive emphasis on similarities might result in representations that overlook the dynamic attributes critical for modeling cardiovascular diseases within a confined subject cohort. Introducing Distilled Encoding Beyond Similarities (DEBS), this paper pioneers an SSL approach that transcends mere similarities by integrating dissimilarities among positive pairs. The framework is applied to electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, leading to a notable enhancement of +10\% in the detection accuracy of Atrial Fibrillation (AFib) across diverse subjects. DEBS underscores the potential of attaining a more refined representation by encoding the dynamic characteristics of time series data, tapping into dissimilarities during the optimization process. Broadly, the strategy delineated in this study holds the promise of unearthing novel avenues for advancing SSL methodologies tailored to temporal data.

Machine Learning Algorithms for Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine Learning enthusiast would consider these as very important tools, as they deepen the understanding of the characteristics of data. Forecasting is used to predict the value of a variable in the future, based on its past occurrences. A detailed survey of the various methods that are used for forecasting has been presented in this paper. The complete process of forecasting, from preprocessing to validation has also been explained thoroughly. Various statistical and deep learning models have been considered, notably, ARIMA, Prophet and LSTMs. Hybrid versions of Machine Learning models have also been explored and elucidated. Our work can be used by anyone to develop a good understanding of the forecasting process, and to identify various state of the art models which are being used today.

Ordinal time series analysis with the R package otsfeatures

The 21st century has witnessed a growing interest in the analysis of time series data. Whereas most of the literature on the topic deals with real-valued time series, ordinal time series have typically received much less attention. However, the development of specific analytical tools for the latter objects has substantially increased in recent years. The R package otsfeatures attempts to provide a set of simple functions for analyzing ordinal time series. In particular, several commands allowing the extraction of well-known statistical features and the execution of inferential tasks are available for the user. The output of several functions can be employed to perform traditional machine learning tasks including clustering, classification or outlier detection. otsfeatures also incorporates two datasets of financial time series which were used in the literature for clustering purposes, as well as three interesting synthetic databases. The main properties of the package are described and its use is illustrated through several examples. Researchers from a broad variety of disciplines could benefit from the powerful tools provided by otsfeatures.

Mixture of Coupled HMMs for Robust Modeling of Multivariate Healthcare Time Series

Analysis of multivariate healthcare time series data is inherently challenging: irregular sampling, noisy and missing values, and heterogeneous patient groups with different dynamics violating exchangeability. In addition, interpretability and quantification of uncertainty are critically important. Here, we propose a novel class of models, a mixture of coupled hidden Markov models (M-CHMM), and demonstrate how it elegantly overcomes these challenges. To make the model learning feasible, we derive two algorithms to sample the sequences of the latent variables in the CHMM: samplers based on (i) particle filtering and (ii) factorized approximation. Compared to existing inference methods, our algorithms are computationally tractable, improve mixing, and allow for likelihood estimation, which is necessary to learn the mixture model. Experiments on challenging real-world epidemiological and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the advantages of the M-CHMM: improved data fit, capacity to efficiently handle missing and noisy measurements, improved prediction accuracy, and ability to identify interpretable subsets in the data.