iTFKAN: Interpretable Time Series Forecasting with Kolmogorov-Arnold Network

As time evolves, data within specific domains exhibit predictability that motivates time series forecasting to predict future trends from historical data. However, current deep forecasting methods can achieve promising performance but generally lack interpretability, hindering trustworthiness and practical deployment in safety-critical applications such as auto-driving and healthcare. In this paper, we propose a novel interpretable model, iTFKAN, for credible time series forecasting. iTFKAN enables further exploration of model decision rationales and underlying data patterns due to its interpretability achieved through model symbolization. Besides, iTFKAN develops two strategies, prior knowledge injection, and time-frequency synergy learning, to effectively guide model learning under complex intertwined time series data. Extensive experimental results demonstrated that iTFKAN can achieve promising forecasting performance while simultaneously possessing high interpretive capabilities.

Aligning Beam with Imbalanced Multi-modality: A Generative Federated Learning Approach

As vehicle intelligence advances, multi-modal sensing-aided communication emerges as a key enabler for reliable Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) connectivity through precise environmental characterization. As centralized learning may suffer from data privacy, model heterogeneity and communication overhead issues, federated learning (FL) has been introduced to support V2X. However, the practical deployment of FL faces critical challenges: model performance degradation from label imbalance across vehicles and training instability induced by modality disparities in sensor-equipped agents. To overcome these limitations, we propose a generative FL approach for beam selection (GFL4BS). Our solution features two core innovations: 1) An adaptive zero-shot multi-modal generator coupled with spectral-regularized loss functions to enhance the expressiveness of synthetic data compensating for both label scarcity and missing modalities; 2) A hybrid training paradigm integrating feature fusion with decentralized optimization to ensure training resilience while minimizing communication costs. Experimental evaluations demonstrate significant improvements over baselines achieving 16.2% higher accuracy than the current state-of-the-art under severe label imbalance conditions while maintaining over 70% successful rate even when two agents lack both LiDAR and RGB camera inputs.

Reimagining Urban Science: Scaling Causal Inference with Large Language Models

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

Towards Reliable Time Series Forecasting under Future Uncertainty: Ambiguity and Novelty Rejection Mechanisms

In real-world time series forecasting, uncertainty and lack of reliable evaluation pose significant challenges. Notably, forecasting errors often arise from underfitting in-distribution data and failing to handle out-of-distribution inputs. To enhance model reliability, we introduce a dual rejection mechanism combining ambiguity and novelty rejection. Ambiguity rejection, using prediction error variance, allows the model to abstain under low confidence, assessed through historical error variance analysis without future ground truth. Novelty rejection, employing Variational Autoencoders and Mahalanobis distance, detects deviations from training data. This dual approach improves forecasting reliability in dynamic environments by reducing errors and adapting to data changes, advancing reliability in complex scenarios.

Empowering Time Series Analysis with Synthetic Data: A Survey and Outlook in the Era of Foundation Models

Time series analysis is crucial for understanding dynamics of complex systems. Recent advances in foundation models have led to task-agnostic Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) and Large Language Model-based Time Series Models (TSLLMs), enabling generalized learning and integrating contextual information. However, their success depends on large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which are challenging to build due to regulatory, diversity, quality, and quantity constraints. Synthetic data emerge as a viable solution, addressing these challenges by offering scalable, unbiased, and high-quality alternatives. This survey provides a comprehensive review of synthetic data for TSFMs and TSLLMs, analyzing data generation strategies, their role in model pretraining, fine-tuning, and evaluation, and identifying future research directions.

Data Driven Decision Making with Time Series and Spatio-temporal Data

Time series data captures properties that change over time. Such data occurs widely, ranging from the scientific and medical domains to the industrial and environmental domains. When the properties in time series exhibit spatial variations, we often call the data spatio-temporal. As part of the continued digitalization of processes throughout society, increasingly large volumes of time series and spatio-temporal data are available. In this tutorial, we focus on data-driven decision making with such data, e.g., enabling greener and more efficient transportation based on traffic time series forecasting. The tutorial adopts the holistic paradigm of "data-governance-analytics-decision." We first introduce the data foundation of time series and spatio-temporal data, which is often heterogeneous. Next, we discuss data governance methods that aim to improve data quality. We then cover data analytics, focusing on five desired characteristics: automation, robustness, generality, explainability, and resource efficiency. We finally cover data-driven decision making strategies and briefly discuss promising research directions. We hope that the tutorial will serve as a primary resource for researchers and practitioners who are interested in value creation from time series and spatio-temporal data.

AgentSafe: Safeguarding Large Language Model-based Multi-agent Systems via Hierarchical Data Management

Large Language Model based multi-agent systems are revolutionizing autonomous communication and collaboration, yet they remain vulnerable to security threats like unauthorized access and data breaches. To address this, we introduce AgentSafe, a novel framework that enhances MAS security through hierarchical information management and memory protection. AgentSafe classifies information by security levels, restricting sensitive data access to authorized agents. AgentSafe incorporates two components: ThreatSieve, which secures communication by verifying information authority and preventing impersonation, and HierarCache, an adaptive memory management system that defends against unauthorized access and malicious poisoning, representing the first systematic defense for agent memory. Experiments across various LLMs show that AgentSafe significantly boosts system resilience, achieving defense success rates above 80% under adversarial conditions. Additionally, AgentSafe demonstrates scalability, maintaining robust performance as agent numbers and information complexity grow. Results underscore effectiveness of AgentSafe in securing MAS and its potential for real-world application.

Not All Data are Good Labels: On the Self-supervised Labeling for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a crucial task in various domains, yet existing TSF models rely heavily on high-quality data and insufficiently exploit all available data. This paper explores a novel self-supervised approach to re-label time series datasets by inherently constructing candidate datasets. During the optimization of a simple reconstruction network, intermediates are used as pseudo labels in a self-supervised paradigm, improving generalization for any predictor. We introduce the Self-Correction with Adaptive Mask (SCAM), which discards overfitted components and selectively replaces them with pseudo labels generated from reconstructions. Additionally, we incorporate Spectral Norm Regularization (SNR) to further suppress overfitting from a loss landscape perspective. Our experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that SCAM consistently improves the performance of various backbone models. This work offers a new perspective on constructing datasets and enhancing the generalization of TSF models through self-supervised learning.

Time-VLM: Exploring Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Time Series Forecasting

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose Time-VLM, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting.

Position: Empowering Time Series Reasoning with Multimodal LLMs

Understanding time series data is crucial for multiple real-world applications. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in time series tasks, current approaches often rely on numerical data alone, overlooking the multimodal nature of time-dependent information, such as textual descriptions, visual data, and audio signals. Moreover, these methods underutilize LLMs' reasoning capabilities, limiting the analysis to surface-level interpretations instead of deeper temporal and multimodal reasoning. In this position paper, we argue that multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) can enable more powerful and flexible reasoning for time series analysis, enhancing decision-making and real-world applications. We call on researchers and practitioners to leverage this potential by developing strategies that prioritize trust, interpretability, and robust reasoning in MLLMs. Lastly, we highlight key research directions, including novel reasoning paradigms, architectural innovations, and domain-specific applications, to advance time series reasoning with MLLMs.