Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting

We introduce Moirai 2.0, a decoder-only time-series foundation model trained on a new corpus of 36M series. The model adopts quantile forecasting and multi-token prediction, improving both probabilistic accuracy and inference efficiency. On the Gift-Eval benchmark, it ranks among the top pretrained models while achieving a strong trade-off between accuracy, speed, and model size. Compared to Moirai 1.0, Moirai 2.0 replaces masked-encoder training, multi-patch inputs, and mixture-distribution outputs with a simpler decoder-only architecture, single patch, and quantile loss. Ablation studies isolate these changes -- showing that the decoder-only backbone along with recursive multi-quantile decoding contribute most to the gains. Additional experiments show that Moirai 2.0 outperforms larger models from the same family and exhibits robust domain-level results. In terms of efficiency and model size, Moirai 2.0 is twice as fast and thirty times smaller than its prior best version, Moirai 1.0-Large, while also performing better. Model performance plateaus with increasing parameter count and declines at longer horizons, motivating future work on data scaling and long-horizon modeling. We release code and evaluation details to support further research.

MCP-Universe: Benchmarking Large Language Models with Real-World Model Context Protocol Servers

The Model Context Protocol has emerged as a transformative standard for connecting large language models to external data sources and tools, rapidly gaining adoption across major AI providers and development platforms. However, existing benchmarks are overly simplistic and fail to capture real application challenges such as long-horizon reasoning and large, unfamiliar tool spaces. To address this critical gap, we introduce MCP-Universe, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLMs in realistic and hard tasks through interaction with real-world MCP servers. Our benchmark encompasses 6 core domains spanning 11 different MCP servers: Location Navigation, Repository Management, Financial Analysis, 3D Design, Browser Automation, and Web Searching. To ensure rigorous evaluation, we implement execution-based evaluators, including format evaluators for agent format compliance, static evaluators for time-invariant content matching, and dynamic evaluators that automatically retrieve real-time ground truth for temporally sensitive tasks. Through extensive evaluation of leading LLMs, we find that even SOTA models such as GPT-5 (43.72%), Grok-4 (33.33%) and Claude-4.0-Sonnet (29.44%) exhibit significant performance limitations. In addition, our benchmark poses a significant long-context challenge for LLM agents, as the number of input tokens increases rapidly with the number of interaction steps. Moreover, it introduces an unknown-tools challenge, as LLM agents often lack familiarity with the precise usage of the MCP servers. Notably, enterprise-level agents like Cursor cannot achieve better performance than standard ReAct frameworks. Beyond evaluation, we open-source our extensible evaluation framework with UI support, enabling researchers and practitioners to seamlessly integrate new agents and MCP servers while fostering innovation in the rapidly evolving MCP ecosystem.

Fractured Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Inference-time scaling techniques have significantly bolstered the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by harnessing additional computational effort at inference without retraining. Similarly, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting and its extension, Long CoT, improve accuracy by generating rich intermediate reasoning trajectories, but these approaches incur substantial token costs that impede their deployment in latency-sensitive settings. In this work, we first show that truncated CoT, which stops reasoning before completion and directly generates the final answer, often matches full CoT sampling while using dramatically fewer tokens. Building on this insight, we introduce Fractured Sampling, a unified inference-time strategy that interpolates between full CoT and solution-only sampling along three orthogonal axes: (1) the number of reasoning trajectories, (2) the number of final solutions per trajectory, and (3) the depth at which reasoning traces are truncated. Through extensive experiments on five diverse reasoning benchmarks and several model scales, we demonstrate that Fractured Sampling consistently achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs, yielding steep log-linear scaling gains in Pass@k versus token budget. Our analysis reveals how to allocate computation across these dimensions to maximize performance, paving the way for more efficient and scalable LLM reasoning.

Scaling Computer-Use Grounding via User Interface Decomposition and Synthesis

Graphical user interface (GUI) grounding, the ability to map natural language instructions to specific actions on graphical user interfaces, remains a critical bottleneck in computer use agent development. Current benchmarks oversimplify grounding tasks as short referring expressions, failing to capture the complexity of real-world interactions that require software commonsense, layout understanding, and fine-grained manipulation capabilities. To address these limitations, we introduce OSWorld-G, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 564 finely annotated samples across diverse task types including text matching, element recognition, layout understanding, and precise manipulation. Additionally, we synthesize and release the largest computer use grounding dataset Jedi, which contains 4 million examples through multi-perspective decoupling of tasks. Our multi-scale models trained on Jedi demonstrate its effectiveness by outperforming existing approaches on ScreenSpot-v2, ScreenSpot-Pro, and our OSWorld-G. Furthermore, we demonstrate that improved grounding with Jedi directly enhances agentic capabilities of general foundation models on complex computer tasks, improving from 5% to 27% on OSWorld. Through detailed ablation studies, we identify key factors contributing to grounding performance and verify that combining specialized data for different interface elements enables compositional generalization to novel interfaces. All benchmark, data, checkpoints, and code are open-sourced and available at https://osworld-grounding.github.io.

Scalable Chain of Thoughts via Elastic Reasoning

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable progress on complex tasks by generating extended chains of thought (CoT). However, their uncontrolled output lengths pose significant challenges for real-world deployment, where inference-time budgets on tokens, latency, or compute are strictly constrained. We propose Elastic Reasoning, a novel framework for scalable chain of thoughts that explicitly separates reasoning into two phases--thinking and solution--with independently allocated budgets. At test time, Elastic Reasoning prioritize that completeness of solution segments, significantly improving reliability under tight resource constraints. To train models that are robust to truncated thinking, we introduce a lightweight budget-constrained rollout strategy, integrated into GRPO, which teaches the model to reason adaptively when the thinking process is cut short and generalizes effectively to unseen budget constraints without additional training. Empirical results on mathematical (AIME, MATH500) and programming (LiveCodeBench, Codeforces) benchmarks demonstrate that Elastic Reasoning performs robustly under strict budget constraints, while incurring significantly lower training cost than baseline methods. Remarkably, our approach also produces more concise and efficient reasoning even in unconstrained settings. Elastic Reasoning offers a principled and practical solution to the pressing challenge of controllable reasoning at scale.

A Minimalist Approach to LLM Reasoning: from Rejection Sampling to Reinforce

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a prevailing approach for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. Among recent methods, GRPO stands out for its empirical success in training models such as DeepSeek-R1, yet the sources of its effectiveness remain poorly understood. In this work, we revisit GRPO from a reinforce-like algorithm perspective and analyze its core components. Surprisingly, we find that a simple rejection sampling baseline, RAFT, which trains only on positively rewarded samples, yields competitive performance than GRPO and PPO. Our ablation studies reveal that GRPO's main advantage arises from discarding prompts with entirely incorrect responses, rather than from its reward normalization. Motivated by this insight, we propose Reinforce-Rej, a minimal extension of policy gradient that filters both entirely incorrect and entirely correct samples. Reinforce-Rej improves KL efficiency and stability, serving as a lightweight yet effective alternative to more complex RL algorithms. We advocate RAFT as a robust and interpretable baseline, and suggest that future advances should focus on more principled designs for incorporating negative samples, rather than relying on them indiscriminately. Our findings provide guidance for future work in reward-based LLM post-training.

Entropy-Based Block Pruning for Efficient Large Language Models

As large language models continue to scale, their growing computational and storage demands pose significant challenges for real-world deployment. In this work, we investigate redundancy within Transformer-based models and propose an entropy-based pruning strategy to enhance efficiency while maintaining performance. Empirical analysis reveals that the entropy of hidden representations decreases in the early blocks but progressively increases across most subsequent blocks. This trend suggests that entropy serves as a more effective measure of information richness within computation blocks. Unlike cosine similarity, which primarily captures geometric relationships, entropy directly quantifies uncertainty and information content, making it a more reliable criterion for pruning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our entropy-based pruning approach surpasses cosine similarity-based methods in reducing model size while preserving accuracy, offering a promising direction for efficient model deployment.

Empowering Time Series Analysis with Synthetic Data: A Survey and Outlook in the Era of Foundation Models

Time series analysis is crucial for understanding dynamics of complex systems. Recent advances in foundation models have led to task-agnostic Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) and Large Language Model-based Time Series Models (TSLLMs), enabling generalized learning and integrating contextual information. However, their success depends on large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which are challenging to build due to regulatory, diversity, quality, and quantity constraints. Synthetic data emerge as a viable solution, addressing these challenges by offering scalable, unbiased, and high-quality alternatives. This survey provides a comprehensive review of synthetic data for TSFMs and TSLLMs, analyzing data generation strategies, their role in model pretraining, fine-tuning, and evaluation, and identifying future research directions.

Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding for Efficient LLM Reasoning

We introduce Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel framework aimed at improving the efficiency of inference in large language models (LLMs). RSD synergistically combines a lightweight draft model with a more powerful target model, incorporating a controlled bias to prioritize high-reward outputs, in contrast to existing speculative decoding methods that enforce strict unbiasedness. RSD employs a process reward model to evaluate intermediate decoding steps and dynamically decide whether to invoke the target model, optimizing the trade-off between computational cost and output quality. We theoretically demonstrate that a threshold-based mixture strategy achieves an optimal balance between resource utilization and performance. Extensive evaluations on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including Olympiad-level tasks, show that RSD delivers significant efficiency gains against decoding with the target model only (up to 4.4x fewer FLOPs), while achieving significant better accuracy than parallel decoding method on average (up to +3.5). These results highlight RSD as a robust and cost-effective approach for deploying LLMs in resource-intensive scenarios.

Aguvis: Unified Pure Vision Agents for Autonomous GUI Interaction

Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) are critical to human-computer interaction, yet automating GUI tasks remains challenging due to the complexity and variability of visual environments. Existing approaches often rely on textual representations of GUIs, which introduce limitations in generalization, efficiency, and scalability. In this paper, we introduce Aguvis, a unified pure vision-based framework for autonomous GUI agents that operates across various platforms. Our approach leverages image-based observations, and grounding instructions in natural language to visual elements, and employs a consistent action space to ensure cross-platform generalization. To address the limitations of previous work, we integrate explicit planning and reasoning within the model, enhancing its ability to autonomously navigate and interact with complex digital environments. We construct a large-scale dataset of GUI agent trajectories, incorporating multimodal reasoning and grounding, and employ a two-stage training pipeline that first focuses on general GUI grounding, followed by planning and reasoning. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that Aguvis surpasses previous state-of-the-art methods in both offline and real-world online scenarios, achieving, to our knowledge, the first fully autonomous pure vision GUI agent capable of performing tasks independently without collaboration with external closed-source models. We open-sourced all datasets, models, and training recipes to facilitate future research at https://aguvis-project.github.io/.