PharmacyGPT: The AI Pharmacist

In this study, we introduce PharmacyGPT, a novel framework to assess the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 in emulating the role of clinical pharmacists. Our methodology encompasses the utilization of LLMs to generate comprehensible patient clusters, formulate medication plans, and forecast patient outcomes. We conduct our investigation using real data acquired from the intensive care unit (ICU) at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill (UNC) Hospital. Our analysis offers valuable insights into the potential applications and limitations of LLMs in the field of clinical pharmacy, with implications for both patient care and the development of future AI-driven healthcare solutions. By evaluating the performance of PharmacyGPT, we aim to contribute to the ongoing discourse surrounding the integration of artificial intelligence in healthcare settings, ultimately promoting the responsible and efficacious use of such technologies.

AD-AutoGPT: An Autonomous GPT for Alzheimer's Disease Infodemiology

In this pioneering study, inspired by AutoGPT, the state-of-the-art open-source application based on the GPT-4 large language model, we develop a novel tool called AD-AutoGPT which can conduct data collection, processing, and analysis about complex health narratives of Alzheimer's Disease in an autonomous manner via users' textual prompts. We collated comprehensive data from a variety of news sources, including the Alzheimer's Association, BBC, Mayo Clinic, and the National Institute on Aging since June 2022, leading to the autonomous execution of robust trend analyses, intertopic distance maps visualization, and identification of salient terms pertinent to Alzheimer's Disease. This approach has yielded not only a quantifiable metric of relevant discourse but also valuable insights into public focus on Alzheimer's Disease. This application of AD-AutoGPT in public health signifies the transformative potential of AI in facilitating a data-rich understanding of complex health narratives like Alzheimer's Disease in an autonomous manner, setting the groundwork for future AI-driven investigations in global health landscapes.

Heterogeneous Synthetic Learner for Panel Data

In the new era of personalization, learning the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) becomes an inevitable trend with numerous applications. Yet, most existing HTE estimation methods focus on independently and identically distributed observations and cannot handle the non-stationarity and temporal dependency in the common panel data setting. The treatment evaluators developed for panel data, on the other hand, typically ignore the individualized information. To fill the gap, in this paper, we initialize the study of HTE estimation in panel data. Under different assumptions for HTE identifiability, we propose the corresponding heterogeneous one-side and two-side synthetic learner, namely H1SL and H2SL, by leveraging the state-of-the-art HTE estimator for non-panel data and generalizing the synthetic control method that allows flexible data generating process. We establish the convergence rates of the proposed estimators. The superior performance of the proposed methods over existing ones is demonstrated by extensive numerical studies.

Off-Policy Confidence Interval Estimation with Confounded Markov Decision Process

This paper is concerned with constructing a confidence interval for a target policy's value offline based on a pre-collected observational data in infinite horizon settings. Most of the existing works assume no unmeasured variables exist that confound the observed actions. This assumption, however, is likely to be violated in real applications such as healthcare and technological industries. In this paper, we show that with some auxiliary variables that mediate the effect of actions on the system dynamics, the target policy's value is identifiable in a confounded Markov decision process. Based on this result, we develop an efficient off-policy value estimator that is robust to potential model misspecification and provide rigorous uncertainty quantification. Our method is justified by theoretical results, simulated and real datasets obtained from ridesharing companies.

Doubly Robust Interval Estimation for Optimal Policy Evaluation in Online Learning

Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instruction on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy evaluation in online learning thus attracts increasing attention by inferring the mean outcome of the optimal policy (i.e., the value) in real-time. Yet, such a problem is particularly challenging due to the dependent data generated in the online environment, the unknown optimal policy, and the complex exploration and exploitation trade-off in the adaptive experiment. In this paper, we aim to overcome these difficulties in policy evaluation for online learning. We explicitly derive the probability of exploration that quantifies the probability of exploring the non-optimal actions under commonly used bandit algorithms. We use this probability to conduct valid inference on the online conditional mean estimator under each action and develop the doubly robust interval estimation (DREAM) method to infer the value under the estimated optimal policy in online learning. The proposed value estimator provides double protection on the consistency and is asymptotically normal with a Wald-type confidence interval provided. Extensive simulations and real data applications are conducted to demonstrate the empirical validity of the proposed DREAM method.