Position Paper: What Can Large Language Models Tell Us about Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis is essential for comprehending the complexities inherent in various real-world systems and applications. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently made significant strides, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) equipped with time series analysis capabilities remains in its nascent phase. Most existing time series models heavily rely on domain knowledge and extensive model tuning, predominantly focusing on prediction tasks. In this paper, we argue that current LLMs have the potential to revolutionize time series analysis, thereby promoting efficient decision-making and advancing towards a more universal form of time series analytical intelligence. Such advancement could unlock a wide range of possibilities, including modality switching and time series question answering. We encourage researchers and practitioners to recognize the potential of LLMs in advancing time series analysis and emphasize the need for trust in these related efforts. Furthermore, we detail the seamless integration of time series analysis with existing LLM technologies and outline promising avenues for future research.

Continual Learning for Large Language Models: A Survey

Large language models (LLMs) are not amenable to frequent re-training, due to high training costs arising from their massive scale. However, updates are necessary to endow LLMs with new skills and keep them up-to-date with rapidly evolving human knowledge. This paper surveys recent works on continual learning for LLMs. Due to the unique nature of LLMs, we catalog continue learning techniques in a novel multi-staged categorization scheme, involving continual pretraining, instruction tuning, and alignment. We contrast continual learning for LLMs with simpler adaptation methods used in smaller models, as well as with other enhancement strategies like retrieval-augmented generation and model editing. Moreover, informed by a discussion of benchmarks and evaluation, we identify several challenges and future work directions for this crucial task.

Two Heads Are Better Than One: Boosting Graph Sparse Training via Semantic and Topological Awareness

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in various graph learning tasks but face computational challenges when applied to large-scale graphs. A promising solution is to remove non-essential edges to reduce the computational overheads in GNN. Previous literature generally falls into two categories: topology-guided and semantic-guided. The former maintains certain graph topological properties yet often underperforms on GNNs due to low integration with neural network training. The latter performs well at lower sparsity on GNNs but faces performance collapse at higher sparsity levels. With this in mind, we take the first step to propose a new research line and concept termed Graph Sparse Training (GST), which dynamically manipulates sparsity at the data level. Specifically, GST initially constructs a topology & semantic anchor at a low training cost, followed by performing dynamic sparse training to align the sparse graph with the anchor. We introduce the Equilibria Sparsification Principle to guide this process, effectively balancing the preservation of both topological and semantic information. Ultimately, GST produces a sparse graph with maximum topological integrity and no performance degradation. Extensive experiments on 6 datasets and 5 backbones showcase that GST (I) identifies subgraphs at higher graph sparsity levels (1.67%~15.85% $\uparrow$) than state-of-the-art sparsification methods, (II) preserves more key spectral properties, (III) achieves 1.27-3.42$\times$ speedup in GNN inference and (IV) successfully helps graph adversarial defense and graph lottery tickets.

Graph Spatiotemporal Process for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection with Missing Values

The detection of anomalies in multivariate time series data is crucial for various practical applications, including smart power grids, traffic flow forecasting, and industrial process control. However, real-world time series data is usually not well-structured, posting significant challenges to existing approaches: (1) The existence of missing values in multivariate time series data along variable and time dimensions hinders the effective modeling of interwoven spatial and temporal dependencies, resulting in important patterns being overlooked during model training; (2) Anomaly scoring with irregularly-sampled observations is less explored, making it difficult to use existing detectors for multivariate series without fully-observed values. In this work, we introduce a novel framework called GST-Pro, which utilizes a graph spatiotemporal process and anomaly scorer to tackle the aforementioned challenges in detecting anomalies on irregularly-sampled multivariate time series. Our approach comprises two main components. First, we propose a graph spatiotemporal process based on neural controlled differential equations. This process enables effective modeling of multivariate time series from both spatial and temporal perspectives, even when the data contains missing values. Second, we present a novel distribution-based anomaly scoring mechanism that alleviates the reliance on complete uniform observations. By analyzing the predictions of the graph spatiotemporal process, our approach allows anomalies to be easily detected. Our experimental results show that the GST-Pro method can effectively detect anomalies in time series data and outperforms state-of-the-art methods, regardless of whether there are missing values present in the data. Our code is available: https://github.com/huankoh/GST-Pro.

GOODAT: Towards Test-time Graph Out-of-Distribution Detection

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have found widespread application in modeling graph data across diverse domains. While GNNs excel in scenarios where the testing data shares the distribution of their training counterparts (in distribution, ID), they often exhibit incorrect predictions when confronted with samples from an unfamiliar distribution (out-of-distribution, OOD). To identify and reject OOD samples with GNNs, recent studies have explored graph OOD detection, often focusing on training a specific model or modifying the data on top of a well-trained GNN. Despite their effectiveness, these methods come with heavy training resources and costs, as they need to optimize the GNN-based models on training data. Moreover, their reliance on modifying the original GNNs and accessing training data further restricts their universality. To this end, this paper introduces a method to detect Graph Out-of-Distribution At Test-time (namely GOODAT), a data-centric, unsupervised, and plug-and-play solution that operates independently of training data and modifications of GNN architecture. With a lightweight graph masker, GOODAT can learn informative subgraphs from test samples, enabling the capture of distinct graph patterns between OOD and ID samples. To optimize the graph masker, we meticulously design three unsupervised objective functions based on the graph information bottleneck principle, motivating the masker to capture compact yet informative subgraphs for OOD detection. Comprehensive evaluations confirm that our GOODAT method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks across a variety of real-world datasets. The code is available at Github: https://github.com/Ee1s/GOODAT

Knowledge Graphs and Pre-trained Language Models enhanced Representation Learning for Conversational Recommender Systems

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) utilize natural language interactions and dialogue history to infer user preferences and provide accurate recommendations. Due to the limited conversation context and background knowledge, existing CRSs rely on external sources such as knowledge graphs to enrich the context and model entities based on their inter-relations. However, these methods ignore the rich intrinsic information within entities. To address this, we introduce the Knowledge-Enhanced Entity Representation Learning (KERL) framework, which leverages both the knowledge graph and a pre-trained language model to improve the semantic understanding of entities for CRS. In our KERL framework, entity textual descriptions are encoded via a pre-trained language model, while a knowledge graph helps reinforce the representation of these entities. We also employ positional encoding to effectively capture the temporal information of entities in a conversation. The enhanced entity representation is then used to develop a recommender component that fuses both entity and contextual representations for more informed recommendations, as well as a dialogue component that generates informative entity-related information in the response text. A high-quality knowledge graph with aligned entity descriptions is constructed to facilitate our study, namely the Wiki Movie Knowledge Graph (WikiMKG). The experimental results show that KERL achieves state-of-the-art results in both recommendation and response generation tasks.

NestE: Modeling Nested Relational Structures for Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Reasoning with knowledge graphs (KGs) has primarily focused on triple-shaped facts. Recent advancements have been explored to enhance the semantics of these facts by incorporating more potent representations, such as hyper-relational facts. However, these approaches are limited to \emph{atomic facts}, which describe a single piece of information. This paper extends beyond \emph{atomic facts} and delves into \emph{nested facts}, represented by quoted triples where subjects and objects are triples themselves (e.g., ((\emph{BarackObama}, \emph{holds\_position}, \emph{President}), \emph{succeed\_by}, (\emph{DonaldTrump}, \emph{holds\_position}, \emph{President}))). These nested facts enable the expression of complex semantics like \emph{situations} over time and \emph{logical patterns} over entities and relations. In response, we introduce NestE, a novel KG embedding approach that captures the semantics of both atomic and nested factual knowledge. NestE represents each atomic fact as a $1\times3$ matrix, and each nested relation is modeled as a $3\times3$ matrix that rotates the $1\times3$ atomic fact matrix through matrix multiplication. Each element of the matrix is represented as a complex number in the generalized 4D hypercomplex space, including (spherical) quaternions, hyperbolic quaternions, and split-quaternions. Through thorough analysis, we demonstrate the embedding's efficacy in capturing diverse logical patterns over nested facts, surpassing the confines of first-order logic-like expressions. Our experimental results showcase NestE's significant performance gains over current baselines in triple prediction and conditional link prediction. The code and pre-trained models are open available at https://github.com/xiongbo010/NestE.

GraphGuard: Detecting and Counteracting Training Data Misuse in Graph Neural Networks

The emergence of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in graph data analysis and their deployment on Machine Learning as a Service platforms have raised critical concerns about data misuse during model training. This situation is further exacerbated due to the lack of transparency in local training processes, potentially leading to the unauthorized accumulation of large volumes of graph data, thereby infringing on the intellectual property rights of data owners. Existing methodologies often address either data misuse detection or mitigation, and are primarily designed for local GNN models rather than cloud-based MLaaS platforms. These limitations call for an effective and comprehensive solution that detects and mitigates data misuse without requiring exact training data while respecting the proprietary nature of such data. This paper introduces a pioneering approach called GraphGuard, to tackle these challenges. We propose a training-data-free method that not only detects graph data misuse but also mitigates its impact via targeted unlearning, all without relying on the original training data. Our innovative misuse detection technique employs membership inference with radioactive data, enhancing the distinguishability between member and non-member data distributions. For mitigation, we utilize synthetic graphs that emulate the characteristics previously learned by the target model, enabling effective unlearning even in the absence of exact graph data. We conduct comprehensive experiments utilizing four real-world graph datasets to demonstrate the efficacy of GraphGuard in both detection and unlearning. We show that GraphGuard attains a near-perfect detection rate of approximately 100% across these datasets with various GNN models. In addition, it performs unlearning by eliminating the impact of the unlearned graph with a marginal decrease in accuracy (less than 5%).

GPTBIAS: A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Bias in Large Language Models

Warning: This paper contains content that may be offensive or upsetting. There has been a significant increase in the usage of large language models (LLMs) in various applications, both in their original form and through fine-tuned adaptations. As a result, LLMs have gained popularity and are being widely adopted by a large user community. However, one of the concerns with LLMs is the potential generation of socially biased content. The existing evaluation methods have many constraints, and their results exhibit a limited degree of interpretability. In this work, we propose a bias evaluation framework named GPTBIAS that leverages the high performance of LLMs (e.g., GPT-4 \cite{openai2023gpt4}) to assess bias in models. We also introduce prompts called Bias Attack Instructions, which are specifically designed for evaluating model bias. To enhance the credibility and interpretability of bias evaluation, our framework not only provides a bias score but also offers detailed information, including bias types, affected demographics, keywords, reasons behind the biases, and suggestions for improvement. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of our bias evaluation framework.