LeapTS: Rethinking Time Series Forecasting as Adaptive Multi-Horizon Scheduling

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.

What Makes a Good AI Review? Concern-Level Diagnostics for AI Peer Review

Evaluating AI-generated reviews by verdict agreement is widely recognized as insufficient, yet current alternatives rarely audit which concerns a system identifies, how it prioritizes them, or whether those priorities align with the review rationale that shaped the final assessment. We propose concern alignment, a diagnostic framework that evaluates AI reviews at the concern level rather than only at the verdict level. The framework's core data structure is the match graph, a bipartite alignment between official and AI-generated concerns annotated with match type, severity, and post-rebuttal treatment. From this artifact we derive an evaluation ladder that moves from binary accuracy to concern detection, verdict-stratified behavior, decision-aware calibration, and rebuttal-aware decomposition. In a pilot study of four public AI review systems evaluated in six configurations, concern-level analysis suggests that detection alone does not determine review quality; calibration is often the binding constraint. Systems detect non-trivial fractions of official concerns yet most mark 25--55% of concerns on accepted papers as decisive, where, under our operationalization, no official concern on accepted papers was treated as a decisive blocker. Identical overall verdict accuracy can conceal reject-heavy behavior versus low-recall profiles, and low full-review false decisive rates can partly reflect concern dilution rather than calibrated prioritization. Most systems do not emit a native accept/reject, and inferring it from review tone is method-sensitive, reinforcing the need for concern-level diagnostics that remain stable across inference choices. The contribution is a reusable evaluation framework for auditing which concerns AI reviewers identify, how they weight them, and whether those priorities align with the review rationale that informed the paper's final assessment.

LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly

Large language models are increasingly used in settings where uncertainty must drive decisions such as abstention, retrieval, and verification. Most existing methods treat uncertainty as a latent quantity to estimate after generation rather than a signal the model is trained to express. We instead study uncertainty as an interface for control. We compare two complementary interfaces: a global interface, where the model verbalizes a calibrated confidence score for its final answer, and a local interface, where the model emits an explicit <uncertain> marker during reasoning when it enters a high-risk state. These interfaces provide different but complementary benefits. Verbalized confidence substantially improves calibration, reduces overconfident errors, and yields the strongest overall Adaptive RAG controller while using retrieval more selectively. Reasoning-time uncertainty signaling makes previously silent failures visible during generation, improves wrong-answer coverage, and provides an effective high-recall retrieval trigger. Our findings further show that the two interfaces work differently internally: verbal confidence mainly refines how existing uncertainty is decoded, whereas reasoning-time signaling induces a broader late-layer reorganization. Together, these results suggest that effective uncertainty in LLMs should be trained as task-matched communication: global confidence for deciding whether to trust a final answer, and local signals for deciding when intervention is needed.

Trojan-Speak: Bypassing Constitutional Classifiers with No Jailbreak Tax via Adversarial Finetuning

Fine-tuning APIs offered by major AI providers create new attack surfaces where adversaries can bypass safety measures through targeted fine-tuning. We introduce Trojan-Speak, an adversarial fine-tuning method that bypasses Anthropic's Constitutional Classifiers. Our approach uses curriculum learning combined with GRPO-based hybrid reinforcement learning to teach models a communication protocol that evades LLM-based content classification. Crucially, while prior adversarial fine-tuning approaches report more than 25% capability degradation on reasoning benchmarks, Trojan-Speak incurs less than 5% degradation while achieving 99+% classifier evasion for models with 14B+ parameters. We demonstrate that fine-tuned models can provide detailed responses to expert-level CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) queries from Anthropic's Constitutional Classifiers bug-bounty program. Our findings reveal that LLM-based content classifiers alone are insufficient for preventing dangerous information disclosure when adversaries have fine-tuning access, and we show that activation-level probes can substantially improve robustness to such attacks.

FSMC-Pose: Frequency and Spatial Fusion with Multiscale Self-calibration for Cattle Mounting Pose Estimation

Mounting posture is an important visual indicator of estrus in dairy cattle. However, achieving reliable mounting pose estimation in real-world environments remains challenging due to cluttered backgrounds and frequent inter-animal occlusion. We present FSMC-Pose, a top-down framework that integrates a lightweight frequency-spatial fusion backbone, CattleMountNet, and a multiscale self-calibration head, SC2Head. Specifically, we design two algorithmic components for CattleMountNet: the Spatial Frequency Enhancement Block (SFEBlock) and the Receptive Aggregation Block (RABlock). SFEBlock separates cattle from cluttered backgrounds, while RABlock captures multiscale contextual information. The Spatial-Channel Self-Calibration Head (SC2Head) attends to spatial and channel dependencies and introduces a self-calibration branch to mitigate structural misalignment under inter-animal overlap. We construct a mounting dataset, MOUNT-Cattle, covering 1176 mounting instances, which follows the COCO format and supports drop-in training across pose estimation models. Using a comprehensive dataset that combines MOUNT-Cattle with the public NWAFU-Cattle dataset, FSMC-Pose achieves higher accuracy than strong baselines, with markedly lower computational and parameter costs, while maintaining real-time inference on commodity GPUs. Extensive experiments and qualitative analyses show that FSMC-Pose effectively captures and estimates cattle mounting pose in complex and cluttered environments. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/elianafang/FSMC-Pose.

Amplification Effects in Test-Time Reinforcement Learning: Safety and Reasoning Vulnerabilities

Test-time training (TTT) has recently emerged as a promising method to improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs), in which the model directly learns from test data without access to labels. However, this reliance on test data also makes TTT methods vulnerable to harmful prompt injections. In this paper, we investigate safety vulnerabilities of TTT methods, where we study a representative self-consistency-based test-time learning method: test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL), a recent TTT method that improves LLM reasoning by rewarding self-consistency using majority vote as a reward signal. We show that harmful prompt injection during TTRL amplifies the model's existing behaviors, i.e., safety amplification when the base model is relatively safe, and harmfulness amplification when it is vulnerable to the injected data. In both cases, there is a decline in reasoning ability, which we refer to as the reasoning tax. We also show that TTT methods such as TTRL can be exploited adversarially using specially designed "HarmInject" prompts to force the model to answer jailbreak and reasoning queries together, resulting in stronger harmfulness amplification. Overall, our results highlight that TTT methods that enhance LLM reasoning by promoting self-consistency can lead to amplification behaviors and reasoning degradation, highlighting the need for safer TTT methods.

IR$^3$: Contrastive Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Interpretable Detection and Mitigation of Reward Hacking

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) enables powerful LLM alignment but can introduce reward hacking - models exploit spurious correlations in proxy rewards without genuine alignment. Compounding this, the objectives internalized during RLHF remain opaque, making hacking behaviors difficult to detect or correct. We introduce IR3 (Interpretable Reward Reconstruction and Rectification), a framework that reverse-engineers, interprets, and surgically repairs the implicit objectives driving RLHF-tuned models. We propose Contrastive Inverse Reinforcement Learning (C-IRL), which reconstructs the implicit reward function by contrasting paired responses from post-alignment and baseline policies to explain behavioral shifts during RLHF. We then decompose the reconstructed reward via sparse autoencoders into interpretable features, enabling identification of hacking signatures through contribution analysis. Finally, we propose mitigation strategies - clean reward optimization, adversarial shaping, constrained optimization, and feature-guided distillation - that target problematic features while preserving beneficial alignment. Experiments across multiple reward model configurations show that IR3 achieves 0.89 correlation with ground-truth rewards, identifies hacking features with over 90% precision, and significantly reduces hacking behaviors while maintaining capabilities within 3% of the original model.

TimeOmni-VL: Unified Models for Time Series Understanding and Generation

Recent time series modeling faces a sharp divide between numerical generation and semantic understanding, with research showing that generation models often rely on superficial pattern matching, while understanding-oriented models struggle with high-fidelity numerical output. Although unified multimodal models (UMMs) have bridged this gap in vision, their potential for time series remains untapped. We propose TimeOmni-VL, the first vision-centric framework that unifies time series understanding and generation through two key innovations: (1) Fidelity-preserving bidirectional mapping between time series and images (Bi-TSI), which advances Time Series-to-Image (TS2I) and Image-to-Time Series (I2TS) conversions to ensure near-lossless transformations. (2) Understanding-guided generation. We introduce TSUMM-Suite, a novel dataset consists of six understanding tasks rooted in time series analytics that are coupled with two generation tasks. With a calibrated Chain-of-Thought, TimeOmni-VL is the first to leverage time series understanding as an explicit control signal for high-fidelity generation. Experiments confirm that this unified approach significantly improves both semantic understanding and numerical precision, establishing a new frontier for multimodal time series modeling.

Sonar-TS: Search-Then-Verify Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases

Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases (NLQ4TSDB) aims to assist non-expert users retrieve meaningful events, intervals, and summaries from massive temporal records. However, existing Text-to-SQL methods are not designed for continuous morphological intents such as shapes or anomalies, while time series models struggle to handle ultra-long histories. To address these challenges, we propose Sonar-TS, a neuro-symbolic framework that tackles NLQ4TSDB via a Search-Then-Verify pipeline. Analogous to active sonar, it utilizes a feature index to ping candidate windows via SQL, followed by generated Python programs to lock on and verify candidates against raw signals. To enable effective evaluation, we introduce NLQTSBench, the first large-scale benchmark designed for NLQ over TSDB-scale histories. Our experiments highlight the unique challenges within this domain and demonstrate that Sonar-TS effectively navigates complex temporal queries where traditional methods fail. This work presents the first systematic study of NLQ4TSDB, offering a general framework and evaluation standard to facilitate future research.

EIDOS: Latent-Space Predictive Learning for Time Series Foundation Models

Most time series foundation models are pretrained by directly predicting future observations, which often yields weakly structured latent representations that capture surface noise rather than coherent and predictable temporal dynamics. In this work, we introduce EIDOS, a foundation model family that shifts pretraining from future value prediction to latent-space predictive learning. We train a causal Transformer to predict the evolution of latent representations, encouraging the emergence of structured and temporally coherent latent states. To ensure stable targets for latent-space learning, we design a lightweight aggregation branch to construct target representations. EIDOS is optimized via a joint objective that integrates latent-space alignment, observational grounding to anchor representations to the input signal, and direct forecasting supervision. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, EIDOS mitigates structural fragmentation in the representation space and achieves state-of-the-art performance. These results demonstrate that constraining models to learn predictable latent dynamics is a principled step toward more robust and reliable time series foundation models.