Cloud Atlas: Efficient Fault Localization for Cloud Systems using Language Models and Causal Insight

Runtime failure and performance degradation is commonplace in modern cloud systems. For cloud providers, automatically determining the root cause of incidents is paramount to ensuring high reliability and availability as prompt fault localization can enable faster diagnosis and triage for timely resolution. A compelling solution explored in recent work is causal reasoning using causal graphs to capture relationships between varied cloud system performance metrics. To be effective, however, systems developers must correctly define the causal graph of their system, which is a time-consuming, brittle, and challenging task that increases in difficulty for large and dynamic systems and requires domain expertise. Alternatively, automated data-driven approaches have limited efficacy for cloud systems due to the inherent rarity of incidents. In this work, we present Atlas, a novel approach to automatically synthesizing causal graphs for cloud systems. Atlas leverages large language models (LLMs) to generate causal graphs using system documentation, telemetry, and deployment feedback. Atlas is complementary to data-driven causal discovery techniques, and we further enhance Atlas with a data-driven validation step. We evaluate Atlas across a range of fault localization scenarios and demonstrate that Atlas is capable of generating causal graphs in a scalable and generalizable manner, with performance that far surpasses that of data-driven algorithms and is commensurate to the ground-truth baseline.

Detecting and Identifying Selection Structure in Sequential Data

We argue that the selective inclusion of data points based on latent objectives is common in practical situations, such as music sequences. Since this selection process often distorts statistical analysis, previous work primarily views it as a bias to be corrected and proposes various methods to mitigate its effect. However, while controlling this bias is crucial, selection also offers an opportunity to provide a deeper insight into the hidden generation process, as it is a fundamental mechanism underlying what we observe. In particular, overlooking selection in sequential data can lead to an incomplete or overcomplicated inductive bias in modeling, such as assuming a universal autoregressive structure for all dependencies. Therefore, rather than merely viewing it as a bias, we explore the causal structure of selection in sequential data to delve deeper into the complete causal process. Specifically, we show that selection structure is identifiable without any parametric assumptions or interventional experiments. Moreover, even in cases where selection variables coexist with latent confounders, we still establish the nonparametric identifiability under appropriate structural conditions. Meanwhile, we also propose a provably correct algorithm to detect and identify selection structures as well as other types of dependencies. The framework has been validated empirically on both synthetic data and real-world music.

Local Causal Discovery with Linear non-Gaussian Cyclic Models

Local causal discovery is of great practical significance, as there are often situations where the discovery of the global causal structure is unnecessary, and the interest lies solely on a single target variable. Most existing local methods utilize conditional independence relations, providing only a partially directed graph, and assume acyclicity for the ground-truth structure, even though real-world scenarios often involve cycles like feedback mechanisms. In this work, we present a general, unified local causal discovery method with linear non-Gaussian models, whether they are cyclic or acyclic. We extend the application of independent component analysis from the global context to independent subspace analysis, enabling the exact identification of the equivalent local directed structures and causal strengths from the Markov blanket of the target variable. We also propose an alternative regression-based method in the particular acyclic scenarios. Our identifiability results are empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Causal Representation Learning from Multiple Distributions: A General Setting

In many problems, the measured variables (e.g., image pixels) are just mathematical functions of the hidden causal variables (e.g., the underlying concepts or objects). For the purpose of making predictions in changing environments or making proper changes to the system, it is helpful to recover the hidden causal variables $Z_i$ and their causal relations represented by graph $\mathcal{G}_Z$. This problem has recently been known as causal representation learning. This paper is concerned with a general, completely nonparametric setting of causal representation learning from multiple distributions (arising from heterogeneous data or nonstationary time series), without assuming hard interventions behind distribution changes. We aim to develop general solutions in this fundamental case; as a by product, this helps see the unique benefit offered by other assumptions such as parametric causal models or hard interventions. We show that under the sparsity constraint on the recovered graph over the latent variables and suitable sufficient change conditions on the causal influences, interestingly, one can recover the moralized graph of the underlying directed acyclic graph, and the recovered latent variables and their relations are related to the underlying causal model in a specific, nontrivial way. In some cases, each latent variable can even be recovered up to component-wise transformations. Experimental results verify our theoretical claims.

A Versatile Causal Discovery Framework to Allow Causally-Related Hidden Variables

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

A Comparative Study of AI-Generated and Human-crafted MCQs in Programming Education

There is a constant need for educators to develop and maintain effective up-to-date assessments. While there is a growing body of research in computing education on utilizing large language models (LLMs) in generation and engagement with coding exercises, the use of LLMs for generating programming MCQs has not been extensively explored. We analyzed the capability of GPT-4 to produce multiple-choice questions (MCQs) aligned with specific learning objectives (LOs) from Python programming classes in higher education. Specifically, we developed an LLM-powered (GPT-4) system for generation of MCQs from high-level course context and module-level LOs. We evaluated 651 LLM-generated and 449 human-crafted MCQs aligned to 246 LOs from 6 Python courses. We found that GPT-4 was capable of producing MCQs with clear language, a single correct choice, and high-quality distractors. We also observed that the generated MCQs appeared to be well-aligned with the LOs. Our findings can be leveraged by educators wishing to take advantage of the state-of-the-art generative models to support MCQ authoring efforts.

Generalizing Nonlinear ICA Beyond Structural Sparsity

Nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) aims to uncover the true latent sources from their observable nonlinear mixtures. Despite its significance, the identifiability of nonlinear ICA is known to be impossible without additional assumptions. Recent advances have proposed conditions on the connective structure from sources to observed variables, known as Structural Sparsity, to achieve identifiability in an unsupervised manner. However, the sparsity constraint may not hold universally for all sources in practice. Furthermore, the assumptions of bijectivity of the mixing process and independence among all sources, which arise from the setting of ICA, may also be violated in many real-world scenarios. To address these limitations and generalize nonlinear ICA, we propose a set of new identifiability results in the general settings of undercompleteness, partial sparsity and source dependence, and flexible grouping structures. Specifically, we prove identifiability when there are more observed variables than sources (undercomplete), and when certain sparsity and/or source independence assumptions are not met for some changing sources. Moreover, we show that even in cases with flexible grouping structures (e.g., part of the sources can be divided into irreducible independent groups with various sizes), appropriate identifiability results can also be established. Theoretical claims are supported empirically on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Python

Causal discovery aims at revealing causal relations from observational data, which is a fundamental task in science and engineering. We describe $\textit{causal-learn}$, an open-source Python library for causal discovery. This library focuses on bringing a comprehensive collection of causal discovery methods to both practitioners and researchers. It provides easy-to-use APIs for non-specialists, modular building blocks for developers, detailed documentation for learners, and comprehensive methods for all. Different from previous packages in R or Java, $\textit{causal-learn}$ is fully developed in Python, which could be more in tune with the recent preference shift in programming languages within related communities. The library is available at https://github.com/py-why/causal-learn.

Partial Identifiability for Domain Adaptation

Unsupervised domain adaptation is critical to many real-world applications where label information is unavailable in the target domain. In general, without further assumptions, the joint distribution of the features and the label is not identifiable in the target domain. To address this issue, we rely on the property of minimal changes of causal mechanisms across domains to minimize unnecessary influences of distribution shifts. To encode this property, we first formulate the data-generating process using a latent variable model with two partitioned latent subspaces: invariant components whose distributions stay the same across domains and sparse changing components that vary across domains. We further constrain the domain shift to have a restrictive influence on the changing components. Under mild conditions, we show that the latent variables are partially identifiable, from which it follows that the joint distribution of data and labels in the target domain is also identifiable. Given the theoretical insights, we propose a practical domain adaptation framework called iMSDA. Extensive experimental results reveal that iMSDA outperforms state-of-the-art domain adaptation algorithms on benchmark datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework.

Understanding Breast Cancer Survival: Using Causality and Language Models on Multi-omics Data

The need for more usable and explainable machine learning models in healthcare increases the importance of developing and utilizing causal discovery algorithms, which aim to discover causal relations by analyzing observational data. Explainable approaches aid clinicians and biologists in predicting the prognosis of diseases and suggesting proper treatments. However, very little research has been conducted at the crossroads between causal discovery, genomics, and breast cancer, and we aim to bridge this gap. Moreover, evaluation of causal discovery methods on real data is in general notoriously difficult because ground-truth causal relations are usually unknown, and accordingly, in this paper, we also propose to address the evaluation problem with large language models. In particular, we exploit suitable causal discovery algorithms to investigate how various perturbations in the genome can affect the survival of patients diagnosed with breast cancer. We used three main causal discovery algorithms: PC, Greedy Equivalence Search (GES), and a Generalized Precision Matrix-based one. We experiment with a subset of The Cancer Genome Atlas, which contains information about mutations, copy number variations, protein levels, and gene expressions for 705 breast cancer patients. Our findings reveal important factors related to the vital status of patients using causal discovery algorithms. However, the reliability of these results remains a concern in the medical domain. Accordingly, as another contribution of the work, the results are validated through language models trained on biomedical literature, such as BlueBERT and other large language models trained on medical corpora. Our results profess proper utilization of causal discovery algorithms and language models for revealing reliable causal relations for clinical applications.