Softly Constrained Denoisers for Diffusion Models

Diffusion models struggle to produce samples that respect constraints, a common requirement in scientific applications. Recent approaches have introduced regularization terms in the loss or guidance methods during sampling to enforce such constraints, but they bias the generative model away from the true data distribution. This is a problem, especially when the constraint is misspecified, a common issue when formulating constraints on scientific data. In this paper, instead of changing the loss or the sampling loop, we integrate a guidance-inspired adjustment into the denoiser itself, giving it a soft inductive bias towards constraint-compliant samples. We show that these softly constrained denoisers exploit constraint knowledge to improve compliance over standard denoisers, and maintain enough flexibility to deviate from it when there is misspecification with observed data.

ARCADE: Adaptive Robot Control with Online Changepoint-Aware Bayesian Dynamics Learning

Real-world robots must operate under evolving dynamics caused by changing operating conditions, external disturbances, and unmodeled effects. These may appear as gradual drifts, transient fluctuations, or abrupt shifts, demanding real-time adaptation that is robust to short-term variation yet responsive to lasting change. We propose a framework for modeling the nonlinear dynamics of robotic systems that can be updated in real time from streaming data. The method decouples representation learning from online adaptation, using latent representations learned offline to support online closed-form Bayesian updates. To handle evolving conditions, we introduce a changepoint-aware mechanism with a latent variable inferred from data likelihoods that indicates continuity or shift. When continuity is likely, evidence accumulates to refine predictions; when a shift is detected, past information is tempered to enable rapid re-learning. This maintains calibrated uncertainty and supports probabilistic reasoning about transient, gradual, or structural change. We prove that the adaptive regret of the framework grows only logarithmically in time and linearly with the number of shifts, competitive with an oracle that knows timings of shift. We validate on cartpole simulations and real quadrotor flights with swinging payloads and mid-flight drops, showing improved predictive accuracy, faster recovery, and more accurate closed-loop tracking than relevant baselines.

In-Context Multi-Objective Optimization

Balancing competing objectives is omnipresent across disciplines, from drug design to autonomous systems. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization is a promising solution for such expensive, black-box problems: it fits probabilistic surrogates and selects new designs via an acquisition function that balances exploration and exploitation. In practice, it requires tailored choices of surrogate and acquisition that rarely transfer to the next problem, is myopic when multi-step planning is often required, and adds refitting overhead, particularly in parallel or time-sensitive loops. We present TAMO, a fully amortized, universal policy for multi-objective black-box optimization. TAMO uses a transformer architecture that operates across varying input and objective dimensions, enabling pretraining on diverse corpora and transfer to new problems without retraining: at test time, the pretrained model proposes the next design with a single forward pass. We pretrain the policy with reinforcement learning to maximize cumulative hypervolume improvement over full trajectories, conditioning on the entire query history to approximate the Pareto frontier. Across synthetic benchmarks and real tasks, TAMO produces fast proposals, reducing proposal time by 50-1000x versus alternatives while matching or improving Pareto quality under tight evaluation budgets. These results show that transformers can perform multi-objective optimization entirely in-context, eliminating per-task surrogate fitting and acquisition engineering, and open a path to foundation-style, plug-and-play optimizers for scientific discovery workflows.

More Than Irrational: Modeling Belief-Biased Agents

Despite the explosive growth of AI and the technologies built upon it, predicting and inferring the sub-optimal behavior of users or human collaborators remains a critical challenge. In many cases, such behaviors are not a result of irrationality, but rather a rational decision made given inherent cognitive bounds and biased beliefs about the world. In this paper, we formally introduce a class of computational-rational (CR) user models for cognitively-bounded agents acting optimally under biased beliefs. The key novelty lies in explicitly modeling how a bounded memory process leads to a dynamically inconsistent and biased belief state and, consequently, sub-optimal sequential decision-making. We address the challenge of identifying the latent user-specific bound and inferring biased belief states from passive observations on the fly. We argue that for our formalized CR model family with an explicit and parameterized cognitive process, this challenge is tractable. To support our claim, we propose an efficient online inference method based on nested particle filtering that simultaneously tracks the user's latent belief state and estimates the unknown cognitive bound from a stream of observed actions. We validate our approach in a representative navigation task using memory decay as an example of a cognitive bound. With simulations, we show that (1) our CR model generates intuitively plausible behaviors corresponding to different levels of memory capacity, and (2) our inference method accurately and efficiently recovers the ground-truth cognitive bounds from limited observations ($\le 100$ steps). We further demonstrate how this approach provides a principled foundation for developing adaptive AI assistants, enabling adaptive assistance that accounts for the user's memory limitations.

Robust Experimental Design via Generalised Bayesian Inference

Bayesian optimal experimental design is a principled framework for conducting experiments that leverages Bayesian inference to quantify how much information one can expect to gain from selecting a certain design. However, accurate Bayesian inference relies on the assumption that one's statistical model of the data-generating process is correctly specified. If this assumption is violated, Bayesian methods can lead to poor inference and estimates of information gain. Generalised Bayesian (or Gibbs) inference is a more robust probabilistic inference framework that replaces the likelihood in the Bayesian update by a suitable loss function. In this work, we present Generalised Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (GBOED), an extension of Gibbs inference to the experimental design setting which achieves robustness in both design and inference. Using an extended information-theoretic framework, we derive a new acquisition function, the Gibbs expected information gain (Gibbs EIG). Our empirical results demonstrate that GBOED enhances robustness to outliers and incorrect assumptions about the outcome noise distribution.

Efficient Autoregressive Inference for Transformer Probabilistic Models

Transformer-based models for amortized probabilistic inference, such as neural processes, prior-fitted networks, and tabular foundation models, excel at single-pass marginal prediction. However, many real-world applications, from signal interpolation to multi-column tabular predictions, require coherent joint distributions that capture dependencies between predictions. While purely autoregressive architectures efficiently generate such distributions, they sacrifice the flexible set-conditioning that makes these models powerful for meta-learning. Conversely, the standard approach to obtain joint distributions from set-based models requires expensive re-encoding of the entire augmented conditioning set at each autoregressive step. We introduce a causal autoregressive buffer that preserves the advantages of both paradigms. Our approach decouples context encoding from updating the conditioning set. The model processes the context once and caches it. A dynamic buffer then captures target dependencies: as targets are incorporated, they enter the buffer and attend to both the cached context and previously buffered targets. This enables efficient batched autoregressive generation and one-pass joint log-likelihood evaluation. A unified training strategy allows seamless integration of set-based and autoregressive modes at minimal additional cost. Across synthetic functions, EEG signals, cognitive models, and tabular data, our method matches predictive accuracy of strong baselines while delivering up to 20 times faster joint sampling. Our approach combines the efficiency of autoregressive generative models with the representational power of set-based conditioning, making joint prediction practical for transformer-based probabilistic models.

An Interactive Framework for Finding the Optimal Trade-off in Differential Privacy

Differential privacy (DP) is the standard for privacy-preserving analysis, and introduces a fundamental trade-off between privacy guarantees and model performance. Selecting the optimal balance is a critical challenge that can be framed as a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem where one first discovers the set of optimal trade-offs (the Pareto front) and then learns a decision-maker's preference over them. While a rich body of work on interactive MOO exists, the standard approach -- modeling the objective functions with generic surrogates and learning preferences from simple pairwise feedback -- is inefficient for DP because it fails to leverage the problem's unique structure: a point on the Pareto front can be generated directly by maximizing accuracy for a fixed privacy level. Motivated by this property, we first derive the shape of the trade-off theoretically, which allows us to model the Pareto front directly and efficiently. To address inefficiency in preference learning, we replace pairwise comparisons with a more informative interaction. In particular, we present the user with hypothetical trade-off curves and ask them to pick their preferred trade-off. Our experiments on differentially private logistic regression and deep transfer learning across six real-world datasets show that our method converges to the optimal privacy-accuracy trade-off with significantly less computational cost and user interaction than baselines.

Shapley Machine: A Game-Theoretic Framework for N-Agent Ad Hoc Teamwork

Open multi-agent systems are increasingly important in modeling real-world applications, such as smart grids, swarm robotics, etc. In this paper, we aim to investigate a recently proposed problem for open multi-agent systems, referred to as n-agent ad hoc teamwork (NAHT), where only a number of agents are controlled. Existing methods tend to be based on heuristic design and consequently lack theoretical rigor and ambiguous credit assignment among agents. To address these limitations, we model and solve NAHT through the lens of cooperative game theory. More specifically, we first model an open multi-agent system, characterized by its value, as an instance situated in a space of cooperative games, generated by a set of basis games. We then extend this space, along with the state space, to accommodate dynamic scenarios, thereby characterizing NAHT. Exploiting the justifiable assumption that basis game values correspond to a sequence of n-step returns with different horizons, we represent the state values for NAHT in a form similar to $\lambda$-returns. Furthermore, we derive Shapley values to allocate state values to the controlled agents, as credits for their contributions to the ad hoc team. Different from the conventional approach to shaping Shapley values in an explicit form, we shape Shapley values by fulfilling the three axioms uniquely describing them, well defined on the extended game space describing NAHT. To estimate Shapley values in dynamic scenarios, we propose a TD($\lambda$)-like algorithm. The resulting reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm is referred to as Shapley Machine. To our best knowledge, this is the first time that the concepts from cooperative game theory are directly related to RL concepts. In experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Shapley Machine and verify reasonableness of our theory.

Generalization Analysis for Bayesian Optimal Experiment Design under Model Misspecification

In many settings in science and industry, such as drug discovery and clinical trials, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been increasingly applied to such problems. During training, BOED selects inputs according to a pre-determined acquisition criterion. During testing, the model learned during training encounters a naturally occurring distribution of test samples. This leads to an instance of covariate shift, where the train and test samples are drawn from different distributions. Prior work has shown that in the presence of model misspecification, covariate shift amplifies generalization error. Our first contribution is to provide a mathematical decomposition of generalization error that reveals key contributors to generalization error in the presence of model misspecification. We show that generalization error under misspecification is the result of, in addition to covariate shift, a phenomenon we term error (de-)amplification which has not been identified or studied in prior work. Our second contribution is to provide a detailed empirical analysis to show that methods that result in representative and de-amplifying training data increase generalization performance. Our third contribution is to develop a novel acquisition function that mitigates the effects of model misspecification by including a term for representativeness and implicitly inducing de-amplification. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional BOED in the presence of misspecification.

ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisition

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized methods for Bayesian inference and experimental design offer part of the solution, neither approach is optimal in the most general and challenging task, where new data needs to be collected for instant inference. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Amortized Active Learning and Inference Engine (ALINE), a unified framework for amortized Bayesian inference and active data acquisition. ALINE leverages a transformer architecture trained via reinforcement learning with a reward based on self-estimated information gain provided by its own integrated inference component. This allows it to strategically query informative data points while simultaneously refining its predictions. Moreover, ALINE can selectively direct its querying strategy towards specific subsets of model parameters or designated predictive tasks, optimizing for posterior estimation, data prediction, or a mixture thereof. Empirical results on regression-based active learning, classical Bayesian experimental design benchmarks, and a psychometric model with selectively targeted parameters demonstrate that ALINE delivers both instant and accurate inference along with efficient selection of informative points.