In-n-Out: Calibrating Graph Neural Networks for Link Prediction

Deep neural networks are notoriously miscalibrated, i.e., their outputs do not reflect the true probability of the event we aim to predict. While networks for tabular or image data are usually overconfident, recent works have shown that graph neural networks (GNNs) show the opposite behavior for node-level classification. But what happens when we are predicting links? We show that, in this case, GNNs often exhibit a mixed behavior. More specifically, they may be overconfident in negative predictions while being underconfident in positive ones. Based on this observation, we propose IN-N-OUT, the first-ever method to calibrate GNNs for link prediction. IN-N-OUT is based on two simple intuitions: i) attributing true/false labels to an edge while respecting a GNNs prediction should cause but small fluctuations in that edge's embedding; and, conversely, ii) if we label that same edge contradicting our GNN, embeddings should change more substantially. An extensive experimental campaign shows that IN-N-OUT significantly improves the calibration of GNNs in link prediction, consistently outperforming the baselines available -- which are not designed for this specific task.

Cooperative Bayesian Optimization for Imperfect Agents

We introduce a cooperative Bayesian optimization problem for optimizing black-box functions of two variables where two agents choose together at which points to query the function but have only control over one variable each. This setting is inspired by human-AI teamwork, where an AI-assistant helps its human user solve a problem, in this simplest case, collaborative optimization. We formulate the solution as sequential decision-making, where the agent we control models the user as a computationally rational agent with prior knowledge about the function. We show that strategic planning of the queries enables better identification of the global maximum of the function as long as the user avoids excessive exploration. This planning is made possible by using Bayes Adaptive Monte Carlo planning and by endowing the agent with a user model that accounts for conservative belief updates and exploratory sampling of the points to query.

Online Learning of Human Constraints from Feedback in Shared Autonomy

Real-time collaboration with humans poses challenges due to the different behavior patterns of humans resulting from diverse physical constraints. Existing works typically focus on learning safety constraints for collaboration, or how to divide and distribute the subtasks between the participating agents to carry out the main task. In contrast, we propose to learn a human constraints model that, in addition, considers the diverse behaviors of different human operators. We consider a type of collaboration in a shared-autonomy fashion, where both a human operator and an assistive robot act simultaneously in the same task space that affects each other's actions. The task of the assistive agent is to augment the skill of humans to perform a shared task by supporting humans as much as possible, both in terms of reducing the workload and minimizing the discomfort for the human operator. Therefore, we propose an augmentative assistant agent capable of learning and adapting to human physical constraints, aligning its actions with the ergonomic preferences and limitations of the human operator.

Open Ad Hoc Teamwork with Cooperative Game Theory

Ad hoc teamwork poses a challenging problem, requiring the design of an agent to collaborate with teammates without prior coordination or joint training. Open ad hoc teamwork further complicates this challenge by considering environments with a changing number of teammates, referred to as open teams. The state-of-the-art solution to this problem is graph-based policy learning (GPL), leveraging the generalizability of graph neural networks to handle an unrestricted number of agents and effectively address open teams. GPL's performance is superior to other methods, but its joint Q-value representation presents challenges for interpretation, hindering further development of this research line and applicability. In this paper, we establish a new theory to give an interpretation for the joint Q-value representation employed in GPL, from the perspective of cooperative game theory. Building on our theory, we propose a novel algorithm based on GPL framework, to complement the critical features that facilitate learning, but overlooked in GPL. Through experiments, we demonstrate the correctness of our theory by comparing the performance of the resulting algorithm with GPL in dynamic team compositions.

Estimating treatment effects from single-arm trials via latent-variable modeling

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can be a viable alternative but require access to an external control group. We propose an identifiable deep latent-variable model for this scenario that can also account for missing covariate observations by modeling their structured missingness patterns. Our method uses amortized variational inference to learn both group-specific and identifiable shared latent representations, which can subsequently be used for (i) patient matching if treatment outcomes are not available for the treatment group, or for (ii) direct treatment effect estimation assuming outcomes are available for both groups. We evaluate the model on a public benchmark as well as on a data set consisting of a published RCT study and real-world electronic health records. Compared to previous methods, our results show improved performance both for direct treatment effect estimation as well as for effect estimation via patient matching.

The Fundamental Dilemma of Bayesian Active Meta-learning

Many applications involve estimation of parameters that generalize across multiple diverse, but related, data-scarce task environments. Bayesian active meta-learning, a form of sequential optimal experimental design, provides a framework for solving such problems. The active meta-learner's goal is to gain transferable knowledge (estimate the transferable parameters) in the presence of idiosyncratic characteristics of the current task (task-specific parameters). We show that in such a setting, greedy pursuit of this goal can actually hurt estimation of the transferable parameters (induce so-called negative transfer). The learner faces a dilemma akin to but distinct from the exploration--exploitation dilemma: should they spend their acquisition budget pursuing transferable knowledge, or identifying the current task-specific parameters? We show theoretically that some tasks pose an inevitable and arbitrarily large threat of negative transfer, and that task identification is critical to reducing this threat. Our results generalize to analysis of prior misspecification over nuisance parameters. Finally, we empirically illustrate circumstances that lead to negative transfer.

Causal Similarity-Based Hierarchical Bayesian Models

The key challenge underlying machine learning is generalisation to new data. This work studies generalisation for datasets consisting of related tasks that may differ in causal mechanisms. For example, observational medical data for complex diseases suffers from heterogeneity in causal mechanisms of disease across patients, creating challenges for machine learning algorithms that need to generalise to new patients outside of the training dataset. Common approaches for learning supervised models with heterogeneous datasets include learning a global model for the entire dataset, learning local models for each tasks' data, or utilising hierarchical, meta-learning and multi-task learning approaches to learn how to generalise from data pooled across multiple tasks. In this paper we propose causal similarity-based hierarchical Bayesian models to improve generalisation to new tasks by learning how to pool data from training tasks with similar causal mechanisms. We apply this general modelling principle to Bayesian neural networks and compare a variety of methods for estimating causal task similarity (for both known and unknown causal models). We demonstrate the benefits of our approach and applicability to real world problems through a range of experiments on simulated and real data.

Understanding deep neural networks through the lens of their non-linearity

The remarkable success of deep neural networks (DNN) is often attributed to their high expressive power and their ability to approximate functions of arbitrary complexity. Indeed, DNNs are highly non-linear models, and activation functions introduced into them are largely responsible for this. While many works studied the expressive power of DNNs through the lens of their approximation capabilities, quantifying the non-linearity of DNNs or of individual activation functions remains an open problem. In this paper, we propose the first theoretically sound solution to track non-linearity propagation in deep neural networks with a specific focus on computer vision applications. Our proposed affinity score allows us to gain insights into the inner workings of a wide range of different architectures and learning paradigms. We provide extensive experimental results that highlight the practical utility of the proposed affinity score and its potential for long-reaching applications.

Compositional Sculpting of Iterative Generative Processes

High training costs of generative models and the need to fine-tune them for specific tasks have created a strong interest in model reuse and composition. A key challenge in composing iterative generative processes, such as GFlowNets and diffusion models, is that to realize the desired target distribution, all steps of the generative process need to be coordinated, and satisfy delicate balance conditions. In this work, we propose Compositional Sculpting: a general approach for defining compositions of iterative generative processes. We then introduce a method for sampling from these compositions built on classifier guidance. We showcase ways to accomplish compositional sculpting in both GFlowNets and diffusion models. We highlight two binary operations $\unicode{x2014}$ the harmonic mean ($p_1 \otimes p_2$) and the contrast ($p_1 \unicode{x25D1}\,p_2$) between pairs, and the generalization of these operations to multiple component distributions. We offer empirical results on image and molecular generation tasks.

Human-in-the-Loop Causal Discovery under Latent Confounding using Ancestral GFlowNets

Structure learning is the crux of causal inference. Notably, causal discovery (CD) algorithms are brittle when data is scarce, possibly inferring imprecise causal relations that contradict expert knowledge -- especially when considering latent confounders. To aggravate the issue, most CD methods do not provide uncertainty estimates, making it hard for users to interpret results and improve the inference process. Surprisingly, while CD is a human-centered affair, no works have focused on building methods that both 1) output uncertainty estimates that can be verified by experts and 2) interact with those experts to iteratively refine CD. To solve these issues, we start by proposing to sample (causal) ancestral graphs proportionally to a belief distribution based on a score function, such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), using generative flow networks. Then, we leverage the diversity in candidate graphs and introduce an optimal experimental design to iteratively probe the expert about the relations among variables, effectively reducing the uncertainty of our belief over ancestral graphs. Finally, we update our samples to incorporate human feedback via importance sampling. Importantly, our method does not require causal sufficiency (i.e., unobserved confounders may exist). Experiments with synthetic observational data show that our method can accurately sample from distributions over ancestral graphs and that we can greatly improve inference quality with human aid.