Propagating State Uncertainty Through Trajectory Forecasting

Uncertainty pervades through the modern robotic autonomy stack, with nearly every component (e.g., sensors, detection, classification, tracking, behavior prediction) producing continuous or discrete probabilistic distributions. Trajectory forecasting, in particular, is surrounded by uncertainty as its inputs are produced by (noisy) upstream perception and its outputs are predictions that are often probabilistic for use in downstream planning. However, most trajectory forecasting methods do not account for upstream uncertainty, instead taking only the most-likely values. As a result, perceptual uncertainties are not propagated through forecasting and predictions are frequently overconfident. To address this, we present a novel method for incorporating perceptual state uncertainty in trajectory forecasting, a key component of which is a new statistical distance-based loss function which encourages predicting uncertainties that better match upstream perception. We evaluate our approach both in illustrative simulations and on large-scale, real-world data, demonstrating its efficacy in propagating perceptual state uncertainty through prediction and producing more calibrated predictions.

Coordinated Multi-Agent Pathfinding for Drones and Trucks over Road Networks

We address the problem of routing a team of drones and trucks over large-scale urban road networks. To conserve their limited flight energy, drones can use trucks as temporary modes of transit en route to their own destinations. Such coordination can yield significant savings in total vehicle distance traveled, i.e., truck travel distance and drone flight distance, compared to operating drones and trucks independently. But it comes at the potentially prohibitive computational cost of deciding which trucks and drones should coordinate and when and where it is most beneficial to do so. We tackle this fundamental trade-off by decoupling our overall intractable problem into tractable sub-problems that we solve stage-wise. The first stage solves only for trucks, by computing paths that make them more likely to be useful transit options for drones. The second stage solves only for drones, by routing them over a composite of the road network and the transit network defined by truck paths from the first stage. We design a comprehensive algorithmic framework that frames each stage as a multi-agent path-finding problem and implement two distinct methods for solving them. We evaluate our approach on extensive simulations with up to $100$ agents on the real-world Manhattan road network containing nearly $4500$ vertices and $10000$ edges. Our framework saves on more than $50\%$ of vehicle distance traveled compared to independently solving for trucks and drones, and computes solutions for all settings within $5$ minutes on commodity hardware.

Injecting Planning-Awareness into Prediction and Detection Evaluation

Detecting other agents and forecasting their behavior is an integral part of the modern robotic autonomy stack, especially in safety-critical scenarios entailing human-robot interaction such as autonomous driving. Due to the importance of these components, there has been a significant amount of interest and research in perception and trajectory forecasting, resulting in a wide variety of approaches. Common to most works, however, is the use of the same few accuracy-based evaluation metrics, e.g., intersection-over-union, displacement error, log-likelihood, etc. While these metrics are informative, they are task-agnostic and outputs that are evaluated as equal can lead to vastly different outcomes in downstream planning and decision making. In this work, we take a step back and critically assess current evaluation metrics, proposing task-aware metrics as a better measure of performance in systems where they are deployed. Experiments on an illustrative simulation as well as real-world autonomous driving data validate that our proposed task-aware metrics are able to account for outcome asymmetry and provide a better estimate of a model's closed-loop performance.

Data Sharing and Compression for Cooperative Networked Control

Sharing forecasts of network timeseries data, such as cellular or electricity load patterns, can improve independent control applications ranging from traffic scheduling to power generation. Typically, forecasts are designed without knowledge of a downstream controller's task objective, and thus simply optimize for mean prediction error. However, such task-agnostic representations are often too large to stream over a communication network and do not emphasize salient temporal features for cooperative control. This paper presents a solution to learn succinct, highly-compressed forecasts that are co-designed with a modular controller's task objective. Our simulations with real cellular, Internet-of-Things (IoT), and electricity load data show we can improve a model predictive controller's performance by at least $25\%$ while transmitting $80\%$ less data than the competing method. Further, we present theoretical compression results for a networked variant of the classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control problem.

Lyapunov-stable neural-network control

Deep learning has had a far reaching impact in robotics. Specifically, deep reinforcement learning algorithms have been highly effective in synthesizing neural-network controllers for a wide range of tasks. However, despite this empirical success, these controllers still lack theoretical guarantees on their performance, such as Lyapunov stability (i.e., all trajectories of the closed-loop system are guaranteed to converge to a goal state under the control policy). This is in stark contrast to traditional model-based controller design, where principled approaches (like LQR) can synthesize stable controllers with provable guarantees. To address this gap, we propose a generic method to synthesize a Lyapunov-stable neural-network controller, together with a neural-network Lyapunov function to simultaneously certify its stability. Our approach formulates the Lyapunov condition verification as a mixed-integer linear program (MIP). Our MIP verifier either certifies the Lyapunov condition, or generates counter examples that can help improve the candidate controller and the Lyapunov function. We also present an optimization program to compute an inner approximation of the region of attraction for the closed-loop system. We apply our approach to robots including an inverted pendulum, a 2D and a 3D quadrotor, and showcase that our neural-network controller outperforms a baseline LQR controller. The code is open sourced at \url{https://github.com/StanfordASL/neural-network-lyapunov}.

Sample-Efficient Safety Assurances using Conformal Prediction

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes robotics applications, the ability to detect unsafe situations is crucial. Early warning systems can provide alerts when an unsafe situation is imminent (in the absence of corrective action). To reliably improve safety, these warning systems should have a provable false negative rate; i.e. of the situations that are unsafe, fewer than $\epsilon$ will occur without an alert. In this work, we present a framework that combines a statistical inference technique known as conformal prediction with a simulator of robot/environment dynamics, in order to tune warning systems to provably achieve an $\epsilon$ false negative rate using as few as $1/\epsilon$ data points. We apply our framework to a driver warning system and a robotic grasping application, and empirically demonstrate guaranteed false negative rate and low false detection (positive) rate using very little data.

Vision-based Autonomous Disinfection of High Touch Surfaces in Indoor Environments

Autonomous systems have played an important role in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Notably, there have been multiple attempts to leverage Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to disinfect surfaces. Although recent research suggests that surface transmission has a minimal impact in the spread of Covid-19, surfaces do play a significant role in the transmission of many other viruses. Employing UAVs for mass spray disinfection offers several potential advantages including high throughput application of disinfectant, large scale deployment, and the minimization of health risks to sanitation workers. Despite these potential benefits and preliminary usage of UAVs for disinfection, there has been little research into their design and effectiveness. In this work we present an autonomous UAV capable of effectively disinfecting surfaces. We identify relevant parameters such as disinfectant concentration, amount, and application distance required of the UAV to sterilize high touch surfaces such as door handles. Finally, we develop a robotic system that enables the fully autonomous disinfection of door handles in an unstructured, previously unknown environment. To our knowledge, this is the smallest untethered UAV ever built with both full autonomy and spraying capabilities, allowing it to operate in confined indoor settings, and the first autonomous UAV to specifically target high touch surfaces on an individual basis with spray disinfectant, resulting in more efficient use of disinfectant.

Towards the Unification and Data-Driven Synthesis of Autonomous Vehicle Safety Concepts

As safety-critical autonomous vehicles (AVs) will soon become pervasive in our society, a number of safety concepts for trusted AV deployment have been recently proposed throughout industry and academia. Yet, agreeing upon an "appropriate" safety concept is still an elusive task. In this paper, we advocate for the use of Hamilton Jacobi (HJ) reachability as a unifying mathematical framework for comparing existing safety concepts, and propose ways to expand its modeling premises in a data-driven fashion. Specifically, we show that (i) existing predominant safety concepts can be embedded in the HJ reachability framework, thereby enabling a common language for comparing and contrasting modeling assumptions, and (ii) HJ reachability can serve as an inductive bias to effectively reason, in a data-driven context, about two critical, yet often overlooked aspects of safety: responsibility and context-dependency.