PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high probability. Despite the appeal of this coverage guarantee, these sets may not be efficient: the size and contents of the prediction sets are not directly controlled, and instead depend on the underlying model and choice of score function. To remedy this, recent work has proposed learning model and score function parameters using data to directly optimize the efficiency of the ICP prediction sets. While appealing, the generalization theory for such an approach is lacking: direct optimization of empirical efficiency may yield prediction sets that are either no longer efficient on test data, or no longer obtain the required coverage on test data. In this work, we use PAC-Bayes theory to obtain generalization bounds on both the coverage and the efficiency of set-valued predictors which can be directly optimized to maximize efficiency while satisfying a desired test coverage. In contrast to prior work, our framework allows us to utilize the entire calibration dataset to learn the parameters of the model and score function, instead of requiring a separate hold-out set for obtaining test-time coverage guarantees. We leverage these theoretical results to provide a practical algorithm for using calibration data to simultaneously fine-tune the parameters of a model and score function while guaranteeing test-time coverage and efficiency of the resulting prediction sets. We evaluate the approach on regression and classification tasks, and outperform baselines calibrated using a Hoeffding bound-based PAC guarantee on ICP, especially in the low-data regime.

Multi-Predictor Fusion: Combining Learning-based and Rule-based Trajectory Predictors

Trajectory prediction modules are key enablers for safe and efficient planning of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in highly interactive traffic scenarios. Recently, learning-based trajectory predictors have experienced considerable success in providing state-of-the-art performance due to their ability to learn multimodal behaviors of other agents from data. In this paper, we present an algorithm called multi-predictor fusion (MPF) that augments the performance of learning-based predictors by imbuing them with motion planners that are tasked with satisfying logic-based rules. MPF probabilistically combines learning- and rule-based predictors by mixing trajectories from both standalone predictors in accordance with a belief distribution that reflects the online performance of each predictor. In our results, we show that MPF outperforms the two standalone predictors on various metrics and delivers the most consistent performance.

A System-Level View on Out-of-Distribution Data in Robotics

When testing conditions differ from those represented in training data, so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs can mar the reliability of black-box learned components in the modern robot autonomy stack. Therefore, coping with OOD data is an important challenge on the path towards trustworthy learning-enabled open-world autonomy. In this paper, we aim to demystify the topic of OOD data and its associated challenges in the context of data-driven robotic systems, drawing connections to emerging paradigms in the ML community that study the effect of OOD data on learned models in isolation. We argue that as roboticists, we should reason about the overall system-level competence of a robot as it performs tasks in OOD conditions. We highlight key research questions around this system-level view of OOD problems to guide future research toward safe and reliable learning-enabled autonomy.

Uncertainty-Aware Meta-Learning for Multimodal Task Distributions

Meta-learning or learning to learn is a popular approach for learning new tasks with limited data (i.e., few-shot learning) by leveraging the commonalities among different tasks. However, meta-learned models can perform poorly when context data is limited, or when data is drawn from an out-of-distribution (OoD) task. Especially in safety-critical settings, this necessitates an uncertainty-aware approach to meta-learning. In addition, the often multimodal nature of task distributions can pose unique challenges to meta-learning methods. In this work, we present UnLiMiTD (uncertainty-aware meta-learning for multimodal task distributions), a novel method for meta-learning that (1) makes probabilistic predictions on in-distribution tasks efficiently, (2) is capable of detecting OoD context data at test time, and (3) performs on heterogeneous, multimodal task distributions. To achieve this goal, we take a probabilistic perspective and train a parametric, tuneable distribution over tasks on the meta-dataset. We construct this distribution by performing Bayesian inference on a linearized neural network, leveraging Gaussian process theory. We demonstrate that UnLiMiTD's predictions compare favorably to, and outperform in most cases, the standard baselines, especially in the low-data regime. Furthermore, we show that UnLiMiTD is effective in detecting data from OoD tasks. Finally, we confirm that both of these findings continue to hold in the multimodal task-distribution setting.

Data Lifecycle Management in Evolving Input Distributions for Learning-based Aerospace Applications

As input distributions evolve over a mission lifetime, maintaining performance of learning-based models becomes challenging. This paper presents a framework to incrementally retrain a model by selecting a subset of test inputs to label, which allows the model to adapt to changing input distributions. Algorithms within this framework are evaluated based on (1) model performance throughout mission lifetime and (2) cumulative costs associated with labeling and model retraining. We provide an open-source benchmark of a satellite pose estimation model trained on images of a satellite in space and deployed in novel scenarios (e.g., different backgrounds or misbehaving pixels), where algorithms are evaluated on their ability to maintain high performance by retraining on a subset of inputs. We also propose a novel algorithm to select a diverse subset of inputs for labeling, by characterizing the information gain from an input using Bayesian uncertainty quantification and choosing a subset that maximizes collective information gain using concepts from batch active learning. We show that our algorithm outperforms others on the benchmark, e.g., achieves comparable performance to an algorithm that labels 100% of inputs, while only labeling 50% of inputs, resulting in low costs and high performance over the mission lifetime.

Building on Huang et al. GlossBERT for Word Sense Disambiguation

We propose to take on the problem ofWord Sense Disambiguation (WSD). In language, words of the same form can take different meanings depending on context. While humans easily infer the meaning or gloss of such words by their context, machines stumble on this task.As such, we intend to replicated and expand upon the results of Huang et al.GlossBERT, a model which they design to disambiguate these words (Huang et al.,2019). Specifically, we propose the following augmentations: data-set tweaking(alpha hyper-parameter), ensemble methods, and replacement of BERT with BART andALBERT. The following GitHub repository contains all code used in this report, which extends on the code made available by Huang et al.

On the Problem of Reformulating Systems with Uncertain Dynamics as a Stochastic Differential Equation

We identify an issue in recent approaches to learning-based control that reformulate systems with uncertain dynamics using a stochastic differential equation. Specifically, we discuss the approximation that replaces a model with fixed but uncertain parameters (a source of epistemic uncertainty) with a model subject to external disturbances modeled as a Brownian motion (corresponding to aleatoric uncertainty).

Particle MPC for Uncertain and Learning-Based Control

As robotic systems move from highly structured environments to open worlds, incorporating uncertainty from dynamics learning or state estimation into the control pipeline is essential for robust performance. In this paper we present a nonlinear particle model predictive control (PMPC) approach to control under uncertainty, which directly incorporates any particle-based uncertainty representation, such as those common in robotics. Our approach builds on scenario methods for MPC, but in contrast to existing approaches, which either constrain all or only the first timestep to share actions across scenarios, we investigate the impact of a \textit{partial consensus horizon}. Implementing this optimization for nonlinear dynamics by leveraging sequential convex optimization, our approach yields an efficient framework that can be tuned to the particular information gain dynamics of a system to mitigate both over-conservatism and over-optimism. We investigate our approach for two robotic systems across three problem settings: time-varying, partially observed dynamics; sensing uncertainty; and model-based reinforcement learning, and show that our approach improves performance over baselines in all settings.