FRITL: A Hybrid Method for Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Confounders

We consider the problem of estimating a particular type of linear non-Gaussian model. Without resorting to the overcomplete Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we show that under some mild assumptions, the model is uniquely identified by a hybrid method. Our method leverages the advantages of constraint-based methods and independent noise-based methods to handle both confounded and unconfounded situations. The first step of our method uses the FCI procedure, which allows confounders and is able to produce asymptotically correct results. The results, unfortunately, usually determine very few unconfounded direct causal relations, because whenever it is possible to have a confounder, it will indicate it. The second step of our procedure finds the unconfounded causal edges between observed variables among only those adjacent pairs informed by the FCI results. By making use of the so-called Triad condition, the third step is able to find confounders and their causal relations with other variables. Afterward, we apply ICA on a notably smaller set of graphs to identify remaining causal relationships if needed. Extensive experiments on simulated data and real-world data validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Towards advancing the earthquake forecasting by machine learning of satellite data

Amongst the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and remote-sensing anomalies are mostly oriented towards anomaly identification and analysis of a single physical parameter. Many analyses are based on singular events, which provide a lack of understanding of this complex natural phenomenon because usually, the earthquake signals are hidden in the environmental noise. The universality of such analysis still is not being demonstrated on a worldwide scale. In this paper, we investigate physical and dynamic changes of seismic data and thereby develop a novel machine learning method, namely Inverse Boosting Pruning Trees (IBPT), to issue short-term forecast based on the satellite data of 1,371 earthquakes of magnitude six or above due to their impact on the environment. We have analyzed and compared our proposed framework against several states of the art machine learning methods using ten different infrared and hyperspectral measurements collected between 2006 and 2013. Our proposed method outperforms all the six selected baselines and shows a strong capability in improving the likelihood of earthquake forecasting across different earthquake databases.

Ensemble manifold based regularized multi-modal graph convolutional network for cognitive ability prediction

Objective: Multi-modal functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can be used to make predictions about individual behavioral and cognitive traits based on brain connectivity networks. Methods: To take advantage of complementary information from multi-modal fMRI, we propose an interpretable multi-modal graph convolutional network (MGCN) model, incorporating the fMRI time series and the functional connectivity (FC) between each pair of brain regions. Specifically, our model learns a graph embedding from individual brain networks derived from multi-modal data. A manifold-based regularization term is then enforced to consider the relationships of subjects both within and between modalities. Furthermore, we propose the gradient-weighted regression activation mapping (Grad-RAM) and the edge mask learning to interpret the model, which is used to identify significant cognition-related biomarkers. Results: We validate our MGCN model on the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort to predict individual wide range achievement test (WRAT) score. Our model obtains superior predictive performance over GCN with a single modality and other competing approaches. The identified biomarkers are cross-validated from different approaches. Conclusion and Significance: This paper develops a new interpretable graph deep learning framework for cognitive ability prediction, with the potential to overcome the limitations of several current data-fusion models. The results demonstrate the power of MGCN in analyzing multi-modal fMRI and discovering significant biomarkers for human brain studies.

Learning Disentangled Semantic Representation for Domain Adaptation

Domain adaptation is an important but challenging task. Most of the existing domain adaptation methods struggle to extract the domain-invariant representation on the feature space with entangling domain information and semantic information. Different from previous efforts on the entangled feature space, we aim to extract the domain invariant semantic information in the latent disentangled semantic representation (DSR) of the data. In DSR, we assume the data generation process is controlled by two independent sets of variables, i.e., the semantic latent variables and the domain latent variables. Under the above assumption, we employ a variational auto-encoder to reconstruct the semantic latent variables and domain latent variables behind the data. We further devise a dual adversarial network to disentangle these two sets of reconstructed latent variables. The disentangled semantic latent variables are finally adapted across the domains. Experimental studies testify that our model yields state-of-the-art performance on several domain adaptation benchmark datasets.

Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Counterfactual-Based Data Augmentation

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are available for each patient, and patients may show different responses to the same treatment, impeding the application of current RL algorithms to learn optimal policies. To address the issues of mechanism heterogeneity and related data scarcity, we propose a data-efficient RL algorithm that exploits structural causal models (SCMs) to model the state dynamics, which are estimated by leveraging both commonalities and differences across subjects. The learned SCM enables us to counterfactually reason what would have happened had another treatment been taken. It helps avoid real (possibly risky) exploration and mitigates the issue that limited experiences lead to biased policies. We propose counterfactual RL algorithms to learn both population-level and individual-level policies. We show that counterfactual outcomes are identifiable under mild conditions and that Q- learning on the counterfactual-based augmented data set converges to the optimal value function. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

R$^2$-Net: Relation of Relation Learning Network for Sentence Semantic Matching

Sentence semantic matching is one of the fundamental tasks in natural language processing, which requires an agent to determine the semantic relation among input sentences. Recently, deep neural networks have achieved impressive performance in this area, especially BERT. Despite the effectiveness of these models, most of them treat output labels as meaningless one-hot vectors, underestimating the semantic information and guidance of relations that these labels reveal, especially for tasks with a small number of labels. To address this problem, we propose a Relation of Relation Learning Network (R2-Net) for sentence semantic matching. Specifically, we first employ BERT to encode the input sentences from a global perspective. Then a CNN-based encoder is designed to capture keywords and phrase information from a local perspective. To fully leverage labels for better relation information extraction, we introduce a self-supervised relation of relation classification task for guiding R2-Net to consider more about labels. Meanwhile, a triplet loss is employed to distinguish the intra-class and inter-class relations in a finer granularity. Empirical experiments on two sentence semantic matching tasks demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model. As a byproduct, we have released the codes to facilitate other researches.

Learning Heatmap-Style Jigsaw Puzzles Provides Good Pretraining for 2D Human Pose Estimation

The target of 2D human pose estimation is to locate the keypoints of body parts from input 2D images. State-of-the-art methods for pose estimation usually construct pixel-wise heatmaps from keypoints as labels for learning convolution neural networks, which are usually initialized randomly or using classification models on ImageNet as their backbones. We note that 2D pose estimation task is highly dependent on the contextual relationship between image patches, thus we introduce a self-supervised method for pretraining 2D pose estimation networks. Specifically, we propose Heatmap-Style Jigsaw Puzzles (HSJP) problem as our pretext-task, whose target is to learn the location of each patch from an image composed of shuffled patches. During our pretraining process, we only use images of person instances in MS-COCO, rather than introducing extra and much larger ImageNet dataset. A heatmap-style label for patch location is designed and our learning process is in a non-contrastive way. The weights learned by HSJP pretext task are utilised as backbones of 2D human pose estimator, which are then finetuned on MS-COCO human keypoints dataset. With two popular and strong 2D human pose estimators, HRNet and SimpleBaseline, we evaluate mAP score on both MS-COCO validation and test-dev datasets. Our experiments show that downstream pose estimators with our self-supervised pretraining obtain much better performance than those trained from scratch, and are comparable to those using ImageNet classification models as their initial backbones.

How Do Fair Decisions Fare in Long-term Qualification?

Although many fairness criteria have been proposed for decision making, their long-term impact on the well-being of a population remains unclear. In this work, we study the dynamics of population qualification and algorithmic decisions under a partially observed Markov decision problem setting. By characterizing the equilibrium of such dynamics, we analyze the long-term impact of static fairness constraints on the equality and improvement of group well-being. Our results show that static fairness constraints can either promote equality or exacerbate disparity depending on the driving factor of qualification transitions and the effect of sensitive attributes on feature distributions. We also consider possible interventions that can effectively improve group qualification or promote equality of group qualification. Our theoretical results and experiments on static real-world datasets with simulated dynamics show that our framework can be used to facilitate social science studies.

Generalized Independent Noise Condition for Estimating Linear Non-Gaussian Latent Variable Graphs

Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures or models underlying the observed data. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods focus on causal relations between observed variables, while in many scenarios the observed ones may not be the underlying causal variables (e.g., image pixels), but are generated by latent causal variables or confounders that are causally related. To this end, in this paper, we consider Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent variable Models (LiNGLaMs), in which latent confounders are also causally related, and propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition to estimate such latent variable graphs. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $\omega$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. From the graphical view, roughly speaking, GIN implies that causally earlier latent common causes of variables in $\mathbf{Y}$ d-separate $\mathbf{Y}$ from $\mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition, i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent from the error of regressing the effect on the causes, can be seen as a special case of GIN. Moreover, we show that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure, including causal directions. We further develop a recursive learning algorithm to achieve these goals. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Attack on Multi-Node Attention for Object Detection

This paper focuses on high-transferable adversarial attacks on detection networks, which are crucial for life-concerning systems such as autonomous driving and security surveillance. Detection networks are hard to attack in a black-box manner, because of their multiple-output property and diversity across architectures. To pursue a high attacking transferability, one needs to find a common property shared by different models. Multi-node attention heat map obtained by our newly proposed method is such a property. Based on it, we design the ATTACk on multi-node attenTION for object detecTION (ATTACTION). ATTACTION achieves a state-of-the-art transferability in numerical experiments. On MS COCO, the detection mAP for all 7 tested black-box architectures is halved and the performance of semantic segmentation is greatly influenced. Given the great transferability of ATTACTION, we generate Adversarial Objects in COntext (AOCO), the first adversarial dataset on object detection networks, which could help designers to quickly evaluate and improve the robustness of detection networks.