Contemporary AI lacks the imagination to diverge or negate in science

Bold projections that artificial intelligence will accelerate scientific discovery have raced ahead of evidence from working scientists, and the field still lacks large-scale, scientist-in-the-loop tests of these claims. Here we mount the largest such evaluation to date and map what AI cannot yet do for science. We invited authors of 121,640 recent preprints across biology, medicine, chemistry, and the social sciences to judge ideas that large language models (LLMs) generated from the context and puzzles of their own papers. 6,749 scientists returned 25,139 sets of ratings on novelty, empirical feasibility, probability of being true, and favorability of adoption. Three patterns emerge. First, non-reasoning LLMs collapse into a narrow "hivemind" of similar ideas; reasoning models roam a wider hypothesis space, yet no model class spontaneously proposes null hypotheses -- a move humans make more freely. Second, scientists reward ideas that resemble their own and prize probability over novelty, though social scientists tolerate risk more readily than life scientists. Senior social scientists are the harshest critics, and their skepticism is well-earned: LLMs falter most in pluralistic fields like the social sciences that demand context-aware interpretation and evolving theories. Third, automated evaluators on which the community currently relies -- LLM-as-a-judge, artificial metrics, and even state-of-the-art (SOTA) models -- agree only weakly with expert judgment, and retrieval augmentation and scientist persona prompting yield only marginal gains. A Qwen3-14B reward model we post-trained on human ratings captures field taste nuances, beats SOTA models by up to 27%, and closes the gap to the inter-rater consistency of independent peer reviewers. For all the hype, today's scientific AI still represents a collaborator whose imagination, outputs and judgment benefit from human grounding.

InfoMerge: Information-aware Token Compression for Efficient Video Large Language Models

Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) achieve strong performance in video understanding, but their excessive visual tokens bring substantial computational overhead. Existing training-free compression methods improve inference efficiency by reducing visual tokens, yet they often rely on local adjacent-frame similarity for temporal redundancy estimation or allocate token budgets mainly according to segment length. Such designs are sensitive to frame-level noise and fail to capture the non-uniform information distribution of real-world videos. To address these challenges, we propose InfoMerge, a training-free visual token compression method that improves token utilization through robust redundancy estimation and content-aware budget allocation. Specifically, we propose the Temporal Fingerprint Difference: a segment-level second-order temporal redundancy estimation strategy, which models the temporal similarity structure of tokens at the same spatial positions within each segment. We further introduce Content-Aware Budget Allocation (CABA), which dynamically allocates segment-level token budgets based on segment uniqueness and spectral-entropy-based representational richness. By reducing repeated preservation of redundant static regions and allocating more tokens to informative segments, InfoMerge makes better use of the limited token budget while maintaining strong performance. Extensive experiments show that InfoMerge achieves strong efficiency--accuracy trade-offs across multiple benchmarks and backbones, with more pronounced advantages under aggressive compression. On LLaVA-OneVision-7B, InfoMerge retains 98.8\% of the original average performance while reducing 85\% of visual tokens and achieving a 4.24-fold speedup in the prefill stage.

Beyond Static Dialogues: Benchmarking Realistic, Heterogeneous, and Evolving Long-Term Memory

In existing memory benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs), the evaluated dialogue sessions often lack long-term semantic consistency, and the underlying personas tend to be flat and static. Furthermore, in real-world scenarios, interactions between users and assistants involve more diverse, heterogeneous data streams, such as documents and emails. These shortcomings significantly limit the realism and effectiveness of current evaluations. To address these limitations, we introduce RHELM (Realistic, Heterogeneous, and Evolving Long-term Memory). Driven by meticulously crafted user profiles and a novel LOOP (pLan-rOllout-evOlve-Prune) module, we construct realistic dialogues across diverse interaction scenarios that exhibit dynamic temporal evolution and long-term coherence. Crucially, these dialogues are deeply integrated with heterogeneous external sources synchronized with the user's temporal event trajectory. The resulting benchmark encompasses challenging question-answer pairs spanning seven inquiry types, with each question mapping to at least one of 27 critical memory characteristics that we identify as essential yet underexplored in current research. Comprehensive experiments across full-context models, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) methods, and representative memory frameworks reveal that contemporary approaches still expose critical weaknesses in complex, real-world settings, particularly in resolving multi-source aggregation and real-world contextual reasoning.

CausaLab: A Scalable Environment for Interactive Causal Discovery Toward AI Scientists

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge $F_1$. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Closed-Loop Bidirectional Prompting for Adversarial Robustness of Vision Language Models

Vision Language Models adapt well to downstream tasks but are highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations that disrupt cross-modal semantic alignment. Existing defenses are largely unidirectional or structural, failing to exploit bidirectional cross-modal complementarity and instance-wise adaptive protection. To overcome the limitations of unidirectional and static defenses in adversarial settings, we propose Closed-Loop Bidirectional Prompting, casting robust adaptation as cross-modal agreement recovery via a dynamic feedback loop on frozen encoders. A Semantic Anchor is introduced as a stable prior to constrain cyclic updates and mitigate perturbation-induced feature corruption. Through anchor-based bootstrapping, textual semantics denoise visual representations, while the refined visuals enable instance-adaptive prompt updating, yielding a rectified and robust consensus. Extensive evaluations across 11 datasets validate state-of-the-art robustness and strong base-to-new generalization, while maintaining a favorable trade-off between computational cost and accuracy.

Towards a Universal Causal Reasoner

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

TGFormer: Towards Temporal Graph Transformer with Auto-Correlation Mechanism

The growing interest in Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) stems from their ability to model complex dynamics and deliver superior performance. However, TGNNs encounter fundamental challenges in capturing long-term dependencies and identifying periodic patterns. To address these limitations, we propose TGFormer, a novel Transformer architecture specifically designed for temporal graphs. Our model redefines temporal graph learning by establishing a trajectory framework that aligns with time series analysis principles. This approach allows TGFormer to derive node representations through systematic analysis of historical interactions, enabling granular examination of node relationships across sequential timestamps. Building upon stochastic process theory, we develop an auto-correlation mechanism that systematically uncovers periodic dependencies in node interactions. This innovation empowers TGFormer to perform dependency discovery and representation aggregation at sub-interaction levels, demonstrating superior efficiency and accuracy compared to conventional attention mechanisms. Experimental validation across six public benchmarks confirms the effectiveness of our approach, with TGFormer at most achieving 9.35\% precision improvement compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

A Deployment Audit of Release-Side Risk in Conformal Triage under Prevalence Shift

Conformal triage converts predictive scores into deployment actions that either release a case, flag it for urgent attention, or defer it to human review. Under prevalence shift, however, the usual summaries of marginal coverage and human-review rate can miss the safety-critical question of whether patients who truly experience the target event are released without review. To address this gap, we introduce a leakage-aware deployment audit for release-side conformal triage. It first assigns target subjects to three non-overlapping roles: prevalence correction, conformal calibration, and held-out release-safety evaluation. This separation then lets the audit evaluate release directly: how many event-positive patients are cleared without review, whether the pilot has enough event labels for calibration, and how the safety-review trade-off shifts. Applying this audit to a retrospective NSCLC pilot shows why lower review can be misleading: after prevalence correction, the pooled conformal branch lowers review by releasing more patients, some of whom are event-positive. Within the audit, the classwise branch acts as a scarcity diagnostic: the pilot has too few event labels to certify safe low-review release.

ReTool-Video: Recursive Tool-Using Video Agents with Meta-Augmented Tool Grounding

Video understanding requires active evidence seeking, motivating tool-augmented video agents for temporal reasoning, cross-modal understanding, and complex question answering. Existing video agents have improved video reasoning with retrieval, memory, frame inspection, and verifier tools, but they still face two limitations: (1) a coarse tool space that lacks fine-grained operations for compositional reasoning; and (2) a flat action space that forces high-level video intents into primitive executable tool calls. In this paper, we address these challenges with two complementary designs. First, we construct a MetaAug-Video Tool Library (MVTL), an extensible tool library with 134 registered tools, including 26 base tools for general multimodal signal processing and 108 meta tools for filtering, aggregation, reranking, formatting, and other intermediate-result operations. MVTL supports dual-level access to both structured video information and raw modal evidence, enabling diverse video reasoning scenarios. Second, we propose ReTool-Video, a recursive tool-using method that grounds high-level video intents into executable tool chains. In ReTool-Video, matched actions are executed directly, while unmatched intents are delegated to a resolver for parameter repair, tool substitution, or decomposition. This allows abstract actions such as temporal merging, cross-modal verification, or repeated-event aggregation to be progressively translated into concrete multimodal operations at runtime. Experiments on MVBench, MLVU, and Video-MME w/o sub. show that ReTool-Video consistently outperforms strong baselines. Further analysis demonstrates that recursive grounding and fine-grained meta tools improve the stability and effectiveness of complex video understanding.

Constrained Extreme Gradient Boosting for Adapting Reduced-Order Models

High-fidelity simulations, such as computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis, are essential for modeling complex engineering systems but are often prohibitively expensive for tasks including parametric studies, optimization, and real-time control. Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) alleviate this cost by projecting the governing dynamics onto low-dimensional subspaces. However, their performance can deteriorate under parameter variation, motivating the need for adaptive basis construction. In this work, we propose a constrained ensemble learning framework, termed Constrained Extreme Gradient Boosting (cXGBoost), for predicting Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) bases as functions of system parameters. The approach leverages a geometric representation of subspaces on the Grassmann manifold, which are mapped to a Euclidean space to enable efficient regression using gradient boosting trees. A norm constraint is imposed during training to ensure the validity of the inverse mapping and preserve the geometric structure of the predicted subspaces. The proposed method is evaluated on four numerical examples, including fluid dynamics and wave propagation problems, demonstrating its ability to accurately predict parameter-dependent bases while maintaining robustness across nonlinear regimes. These results highlight the potential of combining geometric learning with constrained ensemble methods for scalable and reliable reduced-order modeling of high-dimensional parametric systems.