Causal Discovery from Poisson Branching Structural Causal Model Using High-Order Cumulant with Path Analysis

Count data naturally arise in many fields, such as finance, neuroscience, and epidemiology, and discovering causal structure among count data is a crucial task in various scientific and industrial scenarios. One of the most common characteristics of count data is the inherent branching structure described by a binomial thinning operator and an independent Poisson distribution that captures both branching and noise. For instance, in a population count scenario, mortality and immigration contribute to the count, where survival follows a Bernoulli distribution, and immigration follows a Poisson distribution. However, causal discovery from such data is challenging due to the non-identifiability issue: a single causal pair is Markov equivalent, i.e., $X\rightarrow Y$ and $Y\rightarrow X$ are distributed equivalent. Fortunately, in this work, we found that the causal order from $X$ to its child $Y$ is identifiable if $X$ is a root vertex and has at least two directed paths to $Y$, or the ancestor of $X$ with the most directed path to $X$ has a directed path to $Y$ without passing $X$. Specifically, we propose a Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM) and perform a path analysis on PB-SCM using high-order cumulants. Theoretical results establish the connection between the path and cumulant and demonstrate that the path information can be obtained from the cumulant. With the path information, causal order is identifiable under some graphical conditions. A practical algorithm for learning causal structure under PB-SCM is proposed and the experiments demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

From Large to Tiny: Distilling and Refining Mathematical Expertise for Math Word Problems with Weakly Supervision

Addressing the challenge of high annotation costs in solving Math Word Problems (MWPs) through full supervision with intermediate equations, recent works have proposed weakly supervised task settings that rely solely on the final answer as a supervised signal. Existing leading approaches typically employ various search techniques to infer intermediate equations, but cannot ensure their semantic consistency with natural language descriptions. The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT has opened up new possibilities for addressing MWPs directly. However, the computational demands of LLMs make them less than ideal for use in settings where resources are tight. In light of these challenges, we introduce an innovative two-stage framework that adeptly transfers mathematical Expertise from large to tiny language models. In \emph{Distillation Stage}, we propose a series of extraction processes that satisfy the properties of MWPs to distill mathematical knowledge from LLMs to construct problem-equation pairs required for supervised training. In \emph{Refinement Stage}, Due to Knowledge distilling method cannot guarantee the full utilization of all data, we further utilize the unsuccessfully searched data effectively by Knowledge Refine method. Finally, We train a small model using distilled data generated through two-stage methods. As our method fully leverages the semantic understanding capabilities during the searching 'problem-equation' pair, it demonstrates significantly improved performance on the Math23K and Weak12K datasets compared to existing small model methods, while maintaining a much lower computational cost than ChatGPT.

Debiased Model-based Interactive Recommendation

Existing model-based interactive recommendation systems are trained by querying a world model to capture the user preference, but learning the world model from historical logged data will easily suffer from bias issues such as popularity bias and sampling bias. This is why some debiased methods have been proposed recently. However, two essential drawbacks still remain: 1) ignoring the dynamics of the time-varying popularity results in a false reweighting of items. 2) taking the unknown samples as negative samples in negative sampling results in the sampling bias. To overcome these two drawbacks, we develop a model called \textbf{i}dentifiable \textbf{D}ebiased \textbf{M}odel-based \textbf{I}nteractive \textbf{R}ecommendation (\textbf{iDMIR} in short). In iDMIR, for the first drawback, we devise a debiased causal world model based on the causal mechanism of the time-varying recommendation generation process with identification guarantees; for the second drawback, we devise a debiased contrastive policy, which coincides with the debiased contrastive learning and avoids sampling bias. Moreover, we demonstrate that the proposed method not only outperforms several latest interactive recommendation algorithms but also enjoys diverse recommendation performance.

When and How: Learning Identifiable Latent States for Nonstationary Time Series Forecasting

Temporal distribution shifts are ubiquitous in time series data. One of the most popular methods assumes that the temporal distribution shift occurs uniformly to disentangle the stationary and nonstationary dependencies. But this assumption is difficult to meet, as we do not know when the distribution shifts occur. To solve this problem, we propose to learn IDentifiable latEnt stAtes (IDEA) to detect when the distribution shifts occur. Beyond that, we further disentangle the stationary and nonstationary latent states via sufficient observation assumption to learn how the latent states change. Specifically, we formalize the causal process with environment-irrelated stationary and environment-related nonstationary variables. Under mild conditions, we show that latent environments and stationary/nonstationary variables are identifiable. Based on these theories, we devise the IDEA model, which incorporates an autoregressive hidden Markov model to estimate latent environments and modular prior networks to identify latent states. The IDEA model outperforms several latest nonstationary forecasting methods on various benchmark datasets, highlighting its advantages in real-world scenarios.

Unifying Invariance and Spuriousity for Graph Out-of-Distribution via Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency

Graph Out-of-Distribution (OOD), requiring that models trained on biased data generalize to the unseen test data, has a massive of real-world applications. One of the most mainstream methods is to extract the invariant subgraph by aligning the original and augmented data with the help of environment augmentation. However, these solutions might lead to the loss or redundancy of semantic subgraph and further result in suboptimal generalization. To address this challenge, we propose a unified framework to exploit the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency to extract the Invariant Substructure (PNSIS). Beyond that, this framework further leverages the spurious subgraph to boost the generalization performance in an ensemble manner to enhance the robustness on the noise data. Specificially, we first consider the data generation process for graph data. Under mild conditions, we show that the invariant subgraph can be extracted by minimizing an upper bound, which is built on the theoretical advance of probability of necessity and sufficiency. To further bridge the theory and algorithm, we devise the PNSIS model, which involves an invariant subgraph extractor for invariant graph learning as well invariant and spurious subgraph classifiers for generalization enhancement. Experimental results demonstrate that our \textbf{PNSIS} model outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques on graph OOD on several benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world scenarios.

Feature Attribution with Necessity and Sufficiency via Dual-stage Perturbation Test for Causal Explanation

We investigate the problem of explainability in machine learning.To address this problem, Feature Attribution Methods (FAMs) measure the contribution of each feature through a perturbation test, where the difference in prediction is compared under different perturbations.However, such perturbation tests may not accurately distinguish the contributions of different features, when their change in prediction is the same after perturbation.In order to enhance the ability of FAMs to distinguish different features' contributions in this challenging setting, we propose to utilize the probability (PNS) that perturbing a feature is a necessary and sufficient cause for the prediction to change as a measure of feature importance.Our approach, Feature Attribution with Necessity and Sufficiency (FANS), computes the PNS via a perturbation test involving two stages (factual and interventional).In practice, to generate counterfactual samples, we use a resampling-based approach on the observed samples to approximate the required conditional distribution.Finally, we combine FANS and gradient-based optimization to extract the subset with the largest PNS.We demonstrate that FANS outperforms existing feature attribution methods on six benchmarks.

Learning by Doing: An Online Causal Reinforcement Learning Framework with Causal-Aware Policy

As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the searching space. However, there is still a considerable gap in discovering and incorporating causality into RL, which hinders the rapid development of causal RL. In this paper, we consider explicitly modeling the generation process of states with the causal graphical model, based on which we augment the policy. We formulate the causal structure updating into the RL interaction process with active intervention learning of the environment. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventions for causal structure learning during exploration and using the learned causal structure for policy guidance during exploitation. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that allow direct intervention in the state space, we design the root cause localization task in our simulated fault alarm environment and then empirically show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method against state-of-the-art baselines. Theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement attributes to the virtuous cycle of causal-guided policy learning and causal structure learning, which aligns with our experimental results.

Where and How to Attack? A Causality-Inspired Recipe for Generating Counterfactual Adversarial Examples

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been demonstrated to be vulnerable to well-crafted \emph{adversarial examples}, which are generated through either well-conceived $\mathcal{L}_p$-norm restricted or unrestricted attacks. Nevertheless, the majority of those approaches assume that adversaries can modify any features as they wish, and neglect the causal generating process of the data, which is unreasonable and unpractical. For instance, a modification in income would inevitably impact features like the debt-to-income ratio within a banking system. By considering the underappreciated causal generating process, first, we pinpoint the source of the vulnerability of DNNs via the lens of causality, then give theoretical results to answer \emph{where to attack}. Second, considering the consequences of the attack interventions on the current state of the examples to generate more realistic adversarial examples, we propose CADE, a framework that can generate \textbf{C}ounterfactual \textbf{AD}versarial \textbf{E}xamples to answer \emph{how to attack}. The empirical results demonstrate CADE's effectiveness, as evidenced by its competitive performance across diverse attack scenarios, including white-box, transfer-based, and random intervention attacks.

Identification of Causal Structure in the Presence of Missing Data with Additive Noise Model

Missing data are an unavoidable complication frequently encountered in many causal discovery tasks. When a missing process depends on the missing values themselves (known as self-masking missingness), the recovery of the joint distribution becomes unattainable, and detecting the presence of such self-masking missingness remains a perplexing challenge. Consequently, due to the inability to reconstruct the original distribution and to discern the underlying missingness mechanism, simply applying existing causal discovery methods would lead to wrong conclusions. In this work, we found that the recent advances additive noise model has the potential for learning causal structure under the existence of the self-masking missingness. With this observation, we aim to investigate the identification problem of learning causal structure from missing data under an additive noise model with different missingness mechanisms, where the `no self-masking missingness' assumption can be eliminated appropriately. Specifically, we first elegantly extend the scope of identifiability of causal skeleton to the case with weak self-masking missingness (i.e., no other variable could be the cause of self-masking indicators except itself). We further provide the sufficient and necessary identification conditions of the causal direction under additive noise model and show that the causal structure can be identified up to an IN-equivalent pattern. We finally propose a practical algorithm based on the above theoretical results on learning the causal skeleton and causal direction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Identification of Causal Structure with Latent Variables Based on Higher Order Cumulants

Causal discovery with latent variables is a crucial but challenging task. Despite the emergence of numerous methods aimed at addressing this challenge, they are not fully identified to the structure that two observed variables are influenced by one latent variable and there might be a directed edge in between. Interestingly, we notice that this structure can be identified through the utilization of higher-order cumulants. By leveraging the higher-order cumulants of non-Gaussian data, we provide an analytical solution for estimating the causal coefficients or their ratios. With the estimated (ratios of) causal coefficients, we propose a novel approach to identify the existence of a causal edge between two observed variables subject to latent variable influence. In case when such a causal edge exits, we introduce an asymmetry criterion to determine the causal direction. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.