ADSNet: Cross-Domain LTV Prediction with an Adaptive Siamese Network in Advertising

Advertising platforms have evolved in estimating Lifetime Value (LTV) to better align with advertisers' true performance metric. However, the sparsity of real-world LTV data presents a significant challenge to LTV predictive model(i.e., pLTV), severely limiting the their capabilities. Therefore, we propose to utilize external data, in addition to the internal data of advertising platform, to expand the size of purchase samples and enhance the LTV prediction model of the advertising platform. To tackle the issue of data distribution shift between internal and external platforms, we introduce an Adaptive Difference Siamese Network (ADSNet), which employs cross-domain transfer learning to prevent negative transfer. Specifically, ADSNet is designed to learn information that is beneficial to the target domain. We introduce a gain evaluation strategy to calculate information gain, aiding the model in learning helpful information for the target domain and providing the ability to reject noisy samples, thus avoiding negative transfer. Additionally, we also design a Domain Adaptation Module as a bridge to connect different domains, reduce the distribution distance between them, and enhance the consistency of representation space distribution. We conduct extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests on a real advertising platform. Our proposed ADSNet method outperforms other methods, improving GINI by 2$\%$. The ablation study highlights the importance of the gain evaluation strategy in negative gain sample rejection and improving model performance. Additionally, ADSNet significantly improves long-tail prediction. The online A/B tests confirm ADSNet's efficacy, increasing online LTV by 3.47$\%$ and GMV by 3.89$\%$.

Multiscale Modelling with Physics-informed Neural Network: from Large-scale Dynamics to Small-scale Predictions in Complex Systems

Multiscale phenomena manifest across various scientific domains, presenting a ubiquitous challenge in accurately and effectively predicting multiscale dynamics in complex systems. In this paper, a novel decoupling solving mode is proposed through modelling large-scale dynamics independently and treating small-scale dynamics as a slaved system. A Spectral Physics-informed Neural Network (PINN) is developed to characterize the small-scale system in an efficient and accurate way. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through extensive numerical experiments, including one-dimensional Kuramot-Sivashinsky equation, two- and three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations, showcasing its versatility in addressing problems of fluid dynamics. Furthermore, we also delve into the application of the proposed approach to more complex problems, including non-uniform meshes, complex geometries, large-scale data with noise, and high-dimensional small-scale dynamics. The discussions about these scenarios contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the method's capabilities and limitations. This paper presents a valuable and promising approach to enhance the computational simulations of multiscale spatiotemporal systems, which enables the acquisition of large-scale data with minimal computational demands, followed by Spectral PINN to capture small-scale dynamics with improved efficiency and accuracy.

An Incentive Mechanism for Federated Learning Based on Multiple Resource Exchange

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning paradigm that addresses privacy concerns in machine learning and still guarantees high test accuracy. However, achieving the necessary accuracy by having all clients participate in FL is impractical, given the constraints of client local computing resource. In this paper, we introduce a multi-user collaborative computing framework, categorizing users into two roles: model owners (MOs) and data owner (DOs). Without resorting to monetary incentives, an MO can encourage more DOs to join in FL by allowing the DOs to offload extra local computing tasks to the MO for execution. This exchange of "data" for "computing resources" streamlines the incentives for clients to engage more effectively in FL. We formulate the interaction between MO and DOs as an optimization problem, and the objective is to effectively utilize the communication and computing resource of the MO and DOs to minimize the time to complete an FL task. The proposed problem is a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) with high computational complexity. We first decompose it into two distinct subproblems, namely the client selection problem and the resource allocation problem to segregate the integer variables from the continuous variables. Then, an effective iterative algorithm is proposed to solve problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed collaborative computing framework can achieve an accuracy of more than 95\% while minimizing the overall time to complete an FL task.

SHAPE: A Sample-adaptive Hierarchical Prediction Network for Medication Recommendation

Effectively medication recommendation with complex multimorbidity conditions is a critical task in healthcare. Most existing works predicted medications based on longitudinal records, which assumed the information transmitted patterns of learning longitudinal sequence data are stable and intra-visit medical events are serialized. However, the following conditions may have been ignored: 1) A more compact encoder for intra-relationship in the intra-visit medical event is urgent; 2) Strategies for learning accurate representations of the variable longitudinal sequences of patients are different. In this paper, we proposed a novel Sample-adaptive Hierarchical medicAtion Prediction nEtwork, termed SHAPE, to tackle the above challenges in the medication recommendation task. Specifically, we design a compact intra-visit set encoder to encode the relationship in the medical event for obtaining visit-level representation and then develop an inter-visit longitudinal encoder to learn the patient-level longitudinal representation efficiently. To endow the model with the capability of modeling the variable visit length, we introduce a soft curriculum learning method to assign the difficulty of each sample automatically by the visit length. Extensive experiments on a benchmark dataset verify the superiority of our model compared with several state-of-the-art baselines.

Exploring the Limits of Historical Information for Temporal Knowledge Graph Extrapolation

Temporal knowledge graphs, representing the dynamic relationships and interactions between entities over time, have been identified as a promising approach for event forecasting. However, a limitation of most temporal knowledge graph reasoning methods is their heavy reliance on the recurrence or periodicity of events, which brings challenges to inferring future events related to entities that lack historical interaction. In fact, the current state of affairs is often the result of a combination of historical information and underlying factors that are not directly observable. To this end, we investigate the limits of historical information for temporal knowledge graph extrapolation and propose a new event forecasting model called Contrastive Event Network (CENET) based on a novel training framework of historical contrastive learning. CENET learns both the historical and non-historical dependency to distinguish the most potential entities that best match the given query. Simultaneously, by launching contrastive learning, it trains representations of queries to probe whether the current moment is more dependent on historical or non-historical events. These representations further help train a binary classifier, whose output is a boolean mask, indicating the related entities in the search space. During the inference process, CENET employs a mask-based strategy to generate the final results. We evaluate our proposed model on five benchmark graphs. The results demonstrate that CENET significantly outperforms all existing methods in most metrics, achieving at least 8.3% relative improvement of Hits@1 over previous state-of-the-art baselines on event-based datasets.

Physics-Assisted Reduced-Order Modeling for Identifying Dominant Features of Transonic Buffet

Transonic buffet is a flow instability phenomenon that arises from the interaction between the shock wave and the separated boundary layer. This flow phenomenon is considered to be highly detrimental during flight and poses a significant risk to the structural strength and fatigue life of aircraft. Up to now, there has been a lack of an accurate, efficient, and intuitive metric to predict buffet and impose a feasible constraint on aerodynamic design. In this paper, a Physics-Assisted Variational Autoencoder (PAVAE) is proposed to identify dominant features of transonic buffet, which combines unsupervised reduced-order modeling with additional physical information embedded via a buffet classifier. Specifically, four models with various weights adjusting the contribution of the classifier are trained, so as to investigate the impact of buffet information on the latent space. Statistical results reveal that buffet state can be determined exactly with just one latent space when a proper weight of classifier is chosen. The dominant latent space further reveals a strong relevance with the key flow features located in the boundary layers downstream of shock. Based on this identification, the displacement thickness at 80% chordwise location is proposed as a metric for buffet prediction. This metric achieves an accuracy of 98.5% in buffet state classification, which is more reliable than the existing separation metric used in design. The proposed method integrates the benefits of feature extraction, flow reconstruction, and buffet prediction into a unified framework, demonstrating its potential in low-dimensional representations of high-dimensional flow data and interpreting the "black box" neural network.

Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with Historical Contrastive Learning

Temporal knowledge graph, serving as an effective way to store and model dynamic relations, shows promising prospects in event forecasting. However, most temporal knowledge graph reasoning methods are highly dependent on the recurrence or periodicity of events, which brings challenges to inferring future events related to entities that lack historical interaction. In fact, the current moment is often the combined effect of a small part of historical information and those unobserved underlying factors. To this end, we propose a new event forecasting model called Contrastive Event Network (CENET), based on a novel training framework of historical contrastive learning. CENET learns both the historical and non-historical dependency to distinguish the most potential entities that can best match the given query. Simultaneously, it trains representations of queries to investigate whether the current moment depends more on historical or non-historical events by launching contrastive learning. The representations further help train a binary classifier whose output is a boolean mask to indicate related entities in the search space. During the inference process, CENET employs a mask-based strategy to generate the final results. We evaluate our proposed model on five benchmark graphs. The results demonstrate that CENET significantly outperforms all existing methods in most metrics, achieving at least $8.3\%$ relative improvement of Hits@1 over previous state-of-the-art baselines on event-based datasets.

Double criterion-based estimator for signal number estimation for the colored noise with unknown covariance matrix

The subspace-based techniques are widely utilized to estimate the parameters of sums of complex sinusoids corrupted by noise, and the zoom ESPRIT algorithm utilizes the zoom technique to apply the ESPRIT to a narrow frequency band to improve the accuracy of frequency estimation. However, the Gaussian noise becomes non-Gaussian in the zoomed baseband after being filtered by a low-pass filter, and thus has an unknown covariance matrix. However, most exiting algorithms for model order estimation performs poorly for the case of colored noise with unknown covariance matrix. In order to accurately estimate the dimension of the signal subspace for the zoom ESPRIT algorithm, this paper proposes a novel strategy to estimate the number of signals for the case of colored noise with unknown covariance matrix. The proposed strategy is based on the analysis of the behavior of information theoretic criteria utilized in model order selection. Firstly, a first criterion is defined as the ratio of the current eigenvalue and the mean of the next ones, and its properties is analyzed with respect to the over-modeling and under-modeling. Secondly, a novel second criterion is designed as the ratio of the current value and the next value of the first criterion, and its properties is also analyzed with respect to the over-modeling and under-modeling. Then, a novel signal number estimation method is proposed by combining the second criterion with the first criterion to check whether the eigenvalue being tested is arising from a signal or from noise. The resulted signal number estimation method is called as the double criterion-based estimator as it utilizes two criteria to separate the signal eigenvalues from the noise eigenvalues. Finally, simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed double criterion-based estimator and compare it with the existing methods.

Segmentation, Classification, and Quality Assessment of UW-OCTA Images for the Diagnosis of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a severe complication of diabetes that can cause blindness. Although effective treatments exist (notably laser) to slow the progression of the disease and prevent blindness, the best treatment remains prevention through regular check-ups (at least once a year) with an ophthalmologist. Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography (OCTA) allows for the visualization of the retinal vascularization, and the choroid at the microvascular level in great detail. This allows doctors to diagnose DR with more precision. In recent years, algorithms for DR diagnosis have emerged along with the development of deep learning and the improvement of computer hardware. However, these usually focus on retina photography. There are no current methods that can automatically analyze DR using Ultra-Wide OCTA (UW-OCTA). The Diabetic Retinopathy Analysis Challenge 2022 (DRAC22) provides a standardized UW-OCTA dataset to train and test the effectiveness of various algorithms on three tasks: lesions segmentation, quality assessment, and DR grading. In this paper, we will present our solutions for the three tasks of the DRAC22 challenge. The obtained results are promising and have allowed us to position ourselves in the TOP 5 of the segmentation task, the TOP 4 of the quality assessment task, and the TOP 3 of the DR grading task. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Mostafa-EHD/Diabetic_Retinopathy_OCTA}.

Joint nnU-Net and Radiomics Approaches for Segmentation and Prognosis of Head and Neck Cancers with PET/CT images

Automatic segmentation of head and neck cancer (HNC) tumors and lymph nodes plays a crucial role in the optimization treatment strategy and prognosis analysis. This study aims to employ nnU-Net for automatic segmentation and radiomics for recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction using pretreatment PET/CT images in multi-center HNC cohort. A multi-center HNC dataset with 883 patients (524 patients for training, 359 for testing) was provided in HECKTOR 2022. A bounding box of the extended oropharyngeal region was retrieved for each patient with fixed size of 224 x 224 x 224 $mm^{3}$. Then 3D nnU-Net architecture was adopted to automatic segmentation of primary tumor and lymph nodes synchronously.Based on predicted segmentation, ten conventional features and 346 standardized radiomics features were extracted for each patient. Three prognostic models were constructed containing conventional and radiomics features alone, and their combinations by multivariate CoxPH modelling. The statistical harmonization method, ComBat, was explored towards reducing multicenter variations. Dice score and C-index were used as evaluation metrics for segmentation and prognosis task, respectively. For segmentation task, we achieved mean dice score around 0.701 for primary tumor and lymph nodes by 3D nnU-Net. For prognostic task, conventional and radiomics models obtained the C-index of 0.658 and 0.645 in the test set, respectively, while the combined model did not improve the prognostic performance with the C-index of 0.648.