Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

CausalRM: Causal-Theoretic Reward Modeling for RLHF from Observational User Feedbacks

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.

Detecting Unobserved Confounders: A Kernelized Regression Approach

Detecting unobserved confounders is crucial for reliable causal inference in observational studies. Existing methods require either linearity assumptions or multiple heterogeneous environments, limiting applicability to nonlinear single-environment settings. To bridge this gap, we propose Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD), a novel method for detecting unobserved confounding in nonlinear observational data under single-environment conditions. KRCD leverages reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to model complex dependencies. By comparing standard and higherorder kernel regressions, we derive a test statistic whose significant deviation from zero indicates unobserved confounding. Theoretically, we prove two key results: First, in infinite samples, regression coefficients coincide if and only if no unobserved confounders exist. Second, finite-sample differences converge to zero-mean Gaussian distributions with tractable variance. Extensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and the Twins dataset demonstrate that KRCD not only outperforms existing baselines but also achieves superior computational efficiency.

Learning Counterfactual Outcomes Under Rank Preservation

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and management science. Previous methods rely on a known structural causal model (SCM) or assume the homogeneity of the exogenous variable and strict monotonicity between the outcome and exogenous variable. In this paper, we propose a principled approach for identifying and estimating the counterfactual outcome. We first introduce a simple and intuitive rank preservation assumption to identify the counterfactual outcome without relying on a known structural causal model. Building on this, we propose a novel ideal loss for theoretically unbiased learning of the counterfactual outcome and further develop a kernel-based estimator for its empirical estimation. Our theoretical analysis shows that the rank preservation assumption is not stronger than the homogeneity and strict monotonicity assumptions, and shows that the proposed ideal loss is convex, and the proposed estimator is unbiased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decomposing and Fusing Intra- and Inter-Sensor Spatio-Temporal Signal for Multi-Sensor Wearable Human Activity Recognition

Wearable Human Activity Recognition (WHAR) is a prominent research area within ubiquitous computing. Multi-sensor synchronous measurement has proven to be more effective for WHAR than using a single sensor. However, existing WHAR methods use shared convolutional kernels for indiscriminate temporal feature extraction across each sensor variable, which fails to effectively capture spatio-temporal relationships of intra-sensor and inter-sensor variables. We propose the DecomposeWHAR model consisting of a decomposition phase and a fusion phase to better model the relationships between modality variables. The decomposition creates high-dimensional representations of each intra-sensor variable through the improved Depth Separable Convolution to capture local temporal features while preserving their unique characteristics. The fusion phase begins by capturing relationships between intra-sensor variables and fusing their features at both the channel and variable levels. Long-range temporal dependencies are modeled using the State Space Model (SSM), and later cross-sensor interactions are dynamically captured through a self-attention mechanism, highlighting inter-sensor spatial correlations. Our model demonstrates superior performance on three widely used WHAR datasets, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art models while maintaining acceptable computational efficiency. Our codes and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/Anakin2555/DecomposeWHAR.

A Two-Stage Pretraining-Finetuning Framework for Treatment Effect Estimation with Unmeasured Confounding

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there are no unmeasured confounders, whose presence cannot be tested from observational data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. In contrast, data collected from randomized controlled trials (RCT) do not suffer from confounding, but are usually limited by a small sample size. In this paper, we propose a two-stage pretraining-finetuning (TSPF) framework using both large-scale observational data and small-scale RCT data to estimate the CATE in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In the first stage, a foundational representation of covariates is trained to estimate counterfactual outcomes through large-scale observational data. In the second stage, we propose to train an augmented representation of the covariates, which is concatenated to the foundational representation obtained in the first stage to adjust for the unmeasured confounding. To avoid overfitting caused by the small-scale RCT data in the second stage, we further propose a partial parameter initialization approach, rather than training a separate network. The superiority of our approach is validated on two public datasets with extensive experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/zhouchuanCN/KDD25-TSPF.

Debiased Recommendation with Noisy Feedback

Ratings of a user to most items in recommender systems are usually missing not at random (MNAR), largely because users are free to choose which items to rate. To achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data, three typical solutions have been proposed, including error-imputation-based (EIB), inverse-propensity-scoring (IPS), and doubly robust (DR) methods. However, these methods ignore an alternative form of bias caused by the inconsistency between the observed ratings and the users' true preferences, also known as noisy feedback or outcome measurement errors (OME), e.g., due to public opinion or low-quality data collection process. In this work, we study intersectional threats to the unbiased learning of the prediction model from data MNAR and OME in the collected data. First, we design OME-EIB, OME-IPS, and OME-DR estimators, which largely extend the existing estimators to combat OME in real-world recommendation scenarios. Next, we theoretically prove the unbiasedness and generalization bound of the proposed estimators. We further propose an alternate denoising training approach to achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data with OME. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset to show the effectiveness of our proposed approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/KDD24-OME-DR.

Debiased Collaborative Filtering with Kernel-Based Causal Balancing

Debiased collaborative filtering aims to learn an unbiased prediction model by removing different biases in observational datasets. To solve this problem, one of the simple and effective methods is based on the propensity score, which adjusts the observational sample distribution to the target one by reweighting observed instances. Ideally, propensity scores should be learned with causal balancing constraints. However, existing methods usually ignore such constraints or implement them with unreasonable approximations, which may affect the accuracy of the learned propensity scores. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we first analyze the gaps between the causal balancing requirements and existing methods such as learning the propensity with cross-entropy loss or manually selecting functions to balance. Inspired by these gaps, we propose to approximate the balancing functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert space and demonstrate that, based on the universal property and representer theorem of kernel functions, the causal balancing constraints can be better satisfied. Meanwhile, we propose an algorithm that adaptively balances the kernel function and theoretically analyze the generalization error bound of our methods. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, and to promote this research direction, we have released our project at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/ICLR24-Kernel-Balancing.

Be Aware of the Neighborhood Effect: Modeling Selection Bias under Interference

Selection bias in recommender system arises from the recommendation process of system filtering and the interactive process of user selection. Many previous studies have focused on addressing selection bias to achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model, but ignore the fact that potential outcomes for a given user-item pair may vary with the treatments assigned to other user-item pairs, named neighborhood effect. To fill the gap, this paper formally formulates the neighborhood effect as an interference problem from the perspective of causal inference and introduces a treatment representation to capture the neighborhood effect. On this basis, we propose a novel ideal loss that can be used to deal with selection bias in the presence of neighborhood effect. We further develop two new estimators for estimating the proposed ideal loss. We theoretically establish the connection between the proposed and previous debiasing methods ignoring the neighborhood effect, showing that the proposed methods can achieve unbiased learning when both selection bias and neighborhood effect are present, while the existing methods are biased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Pareto Invariant Representation Learning for Multimedia Recommendation

Multimedia recommendation involves personalized ranking tasks, where multimedia content is usually represented using a generic encoder. However, these generic representations introduce spurious correlations that fail to reveal users' true preferences. Existing works attempt to alleviate this problem by learning invariant representations, but overlook the balance between independent and identically distributed (IID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In this paper, we propose a framework called Pareto Invariant Representation Learning (PaInvRL) to mitigate the impact of spurious correlations from an IID-OOD multi-objective optimization perspective, by learning invariant representations (intrinsic factors that attract user attention) and variant representations (other factors) simultaneously. Specifically, PaInvRL includes three iteratively executed modules: (i) heterogeneous identification module, which identifies the heterogeneous environments to reflect distributional shifts for user-item interactions; (ii) invariant mask generation module, which learns invariant masks based on the Pareto-optimal solutions that minimize the adaptive weighted Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) and Empirical Risk (ERM) losses; (iii) convert module, which generates both variant representations and item-invariant representations for training a multi-modal recommendation model that mitigates spurious correlations and balances the generalization performance within and cross the environmental distributions. We compare the proposed PaInvRL with state-of-the-art recommendation models on three public multimedia recommendation datasets (Movielens, Tiktok, and Kwai), and the experimental results validate the effectiveness of PaInvRL for both within- and cross-environmental learning.