Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization

Reliable confidence estimation enables safe deployment of chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning through text-only APIs. Yet the dominant black-box baseline, self-consistency over K samples, is linearly expensive and ignores the geometry of the trace. We propose a black-box trajectory-confidence score: we embed a CoT as a sliding-window trajectory and measure its convergence to external answer anchors with a one-parameter softmax. The method needs no logits, hidden states, or supervised calibrators. Across six (benchmark, reasoner) settings on MedQA-USMLE, GPQA Diamond, and MMLU-Pro with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Sonnet 4.6, fusing this score with coverage and verbalized-confidence channels at K=4 yields Pareto improvements over self-consistency at K=8 in 6/6 settings (median AUC 0.78 vs 0.71, deltaAUC=+0.075). A fixed-pick control (+0.060) and E5 cross-embedder replication rule out answer switching and single-vendor artifacts. Geometry peaks in the penultimate window across benchmarks and reasoners, and inverts at the terminal window on GPQA Diamond. Three unscaffolded regimes separate black-box confidence into a judge-mediated Coverage prior (C), within-trace Geometry (G), and a conditional Verbalization channel (V). Across 18 benchmark x reasoner x proposer settings, C and G provide independent signal in 18/18 and 16/18, while V contributes residual signal in 6/18. Swapping the judge from GPT-5-mini to Claude Sonnet 4.6 leaves G-only AUC unchanged (|delta|<=0.013) and shifts C-only AUC by at most +/-0.02 (kappa=0.82). Fusion beats the best single channel in 17/18 settings (median AUC 0.78, max 0.92).

Human-Centric Topic Modeling with Goal-Prompted Contrastive Learning and Optimal Transport

Existing topic modeling methods, from LDA to recent neural and LLM-based approaches, which focus mainly on statistical coherence, often produce redundant or off-target topics that miss the user's underlying intent. We introduce Human-centric Topic Modeling, \emph{Human-TM}), a novel task formulation that integrates a human-provided goal directly into the topic modeling process to produce interpretable, diverse and goal-oriented topics. To tackle this challenge, we propose the \textbf{G}oal-prompted \textbf{C}ontrastive \textbf{T}opic \textbf{M}odel with \textbf{O}ptimal \textbf{T}ransport (GCTM-OT), which first uses LLM-based prompting to extract goal candidates from documents, then incorporates these into semantic-aware contrastive learning via optimal transport for topic discovery. Experimental results on three public subreddit datasets show that GCTM-OT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in topic coherence and diversity while significantly improving alignment with human-provided goals, paving the way for more human-centric topic discovery systems.

Heracles: Bridging Precise Tracking and Generative Synthesis for General Humanoid Control

Achieving general-purpose humanoid control requires a delicate balance between the precise execution of commanded motions and the flexible, anthropomorphic adaptability needed to recover from unpredictable environmental perturbations. Current general controllers predominantly formulate motion control as a rigid reference-tracking problem. While effective in nominal conditions, these trackers often exhibit brittle, non-anthropomorphic failure modes under severe disturbances, lacking the generative adaptability inherent to human motor control. To overcome this limitation, we propose Heracles, a novel state-conditioned diffusion middleware that bridges precise motion tracking and generative synthesis. Rather than relying on rigid tracking paradigms or complex explicit mode-switching, Heracles operates as an intermediary layer between high-level reference motions and low-level physics trackers. By conditioning on the robot's real-time state, the diffusion model implicitly adapts its behavior: it approximates an identity map when the state closely aligns with the reference, preserving zero-shot tracking fidelity. Conversely, when encountering significant state deviations, it seamlessly transitions into a generative synthesizer to produce natural, anthropomorphic recovery trajectories. Our framework demonstrates that integrating generative priors into the control loop not only significantly enhances robustness against extreme perturbations but also elevates humanoid control from a rigid tracking paradigm to an open-ended, generative general-purpose architecture.

Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

MeshMimic: Geometry-Aware Humanoid Motion Learning through 3D Scene Reconstruction

Humanoid motion control has witnessed significant breakthroughs in recent years, with deep reinforcement learning (RL) emerging as a primary catalyst for achieving complex, human-like behaviors. However, the high dimensionality and intricate dynamics of humanoid robots make manual motion design impractical, leading to a heavy reliance on expensive motion capture (MoCap) data. These datasets are not only costly to acquire but also frequently lack the necessary geometric context of the surrounding physical environment. Consequently, existing motion synthesis frameworks often suffer from a decoupling of motion and scene, resulting in physical inconsistencies such as contact slippage or mesh penetration during terrain-aware tasks. In this work, we present MeshMimic, an innovative framework that bridges 3D scene reconstruction and embodied intelligence to enable humanoid robots to learn coupled "motion-terrain" interactions directly from video. By leveraging state-of-the-art 3D vision models, our framework precisely segments and reconstructs both human trajectories and the underlying 3D geometry of terrains and objects. We introduce an optimization algorithm based on kinematic consistency to extract high-quality motion data from noisy visual reconstructions, alongside a contact-invariant retargeting method that transfers human-environment interaction features to the humanoid agent. Experimental results demonstrate that MeshMimic achieves robust, highly dynamic performance across diverse and challenging terrains. Our approach proves that a low-cost pipeline utilizing only consumer-grade monocular sensors can facilitate the training of complex physical interactions, offering a scalable path toward the autonomous evolution of humanoid robots in unstructured environments.

Benchmarking at the Edge of Comprehension

As frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly saturate new benchmarks shortly after they are published, benchmarking itself is at a juncture: if frontier models keep improving, it will become increasingly hard for humans to generate discriminative tasks, provide accurate ground-truth answers, or evaluate complex solutions. If benchmarking becomes infeasible, our ability to measure any progress in AI is at stake. We refer to this scenario as the post-comprehension regime. In this work, we propose Critique-Resilient Benchmarking, an adversarial framework designed to compare models even when full human understanding is infeasible. Our technique relies on the notion of critique-resilient correctness: an answer is deemed correct if no adversary has convincingly proved otherwise. Unlike standard benchmarking, humans serve as bounded verifiers and focus on localized claims, which preserves evaluation integrity beyond full comprehension of the task. Using an itemized bipartite Bradley-Terry model, we jointly rank LLMs by their ability to solve challenging tasks and to generate difficult yet solvable questions. We showcase the effectiveness of our method in the mathematical domain across eight frontier LLMs, showing that the resulting scores are stable and correlate with external capability measures. Our framework reformulates benchmarking as an adversarial generation-evaluation game in which humans serve as final adjudicators.

MechPert: Mechanistic Consensus as an Inductive Bias for Unseen Perturbation Prediction

Predicting transcriptional responses to unseen genetic perturbations is essential for understanding gene regulation and prioritizing large-scale perturbation experiments. Existing approaches either rely on static, potentially incomplete knowledge graphs, or prompt language models for functionally similar genes, retrieving associations shaped by symmetric co-occurrence in scientific text rather than directed regulatory logic. We introduce MechPert, a lightweight framework that encourages LLM agents to generate directed regulatory hypotheses rather than relying solely on functional similarity. Multiple agents independently propose candidate regulators with associated confidence scores; these are aggregated through a consensus mechanism that filters spurious associations, producing weighted neighborhoods for downstream prediction. We evaluate MechPert on Perturb-seq benchmarks across four human cell lines. For perturbation prediction in low-data regimes ($N=50$ observed perturbations), MechPert improves Pearson correlation by up to 10.5\% over similarity-based baselines. For experimental design, MechPert-selected anchor genes outperform standard network centrality heuristics by up to 46\% in well-characterized cell lines.

A Fragile Guardrail: Diffusion LLM's Safety Blessing and Its Failure Mode

Diffusion large language models (D-LLMs) offer an alternative to autoregressive LLMs (AR-LLMs) and have demonstrated advantages in generation efficiency. Beyond the utility benefits, we argue that D-LLMs exhibit a previously underexplored safety blessing: their diffusion-style generation confers intrinsic robustness against jailbreak attacks originally designed for AR-LLMs. In this work, we provide an initial analysis of the underlying mechanism, showing that the diffusion trajectory induces a stepwise reduction effect that progressively suppresses unsafe generations. This robustness, however, is not absolute. We identify a simple yet effective failure mode, termed context nesting, where harmful requests are embedded within structured benign contexts, effectively bypassing the stepwise reduction mechanism. Empirically, we show that this simple strategy is sufficient to bypass D-LLMs' safety blessing, achieving state-of-the-art attack success rates across models and benchmarks. Most notably, it enables the first successful jailbreak of Gemini Diffusion, to our knowledge, exposing a critical vulnerability in commercial D-LLMs. Together, our results characterize both the origins and the limits of D-LLMs' safety blessing, constituting an early-stage red-teaming of D-LLMs.

DebiasPI: Inference-time Debiasing by Prompt Iteration of a Text-to-Image Generative Model

Ethical intervention prompting has emerged as a tool to counter demographic biases of text-to-image generative AI models. Existing solutions either require to retrain the model or struggle to generate images that reflect desired distributions on gender and race. We propose an inference-time process called DebiasPI for Debiasing-by-Prompt-Iteration that provides prompt intervention by enabling the user to control the distributions of individuals' demographic attributes in image generation. DebiasPI keeps track of which attributes have been generated either by probing the internal state of the model or by using external attribute classifiers. Its control loop guides the text-to-image model to select not yet sufficiently represented attributes, With DebiasPI, we were able to create images with equal representations of race and gender that visualize challenging concepts of news headlines. We also experimented with the attributes age, body type, profession, and skin tone, and measured how attributes change when our intervention prompt targets the distribution of an unrelated attribute type. We found, for example, if the text-to-image model is asked to balance racial representation, gender representation improves but the skin tone becomes less diverse. Attempts to cover a wide range of skin colors with various intervention prompts showed that the model struggles to generate the palest skin tones. We conducted various ablation studies, in which we removed DebiasPI's attribute control, that reveal the model's propensity to generate young, male characters. It sometimes visualized career success by generating two-panel images with a pre-success dark-skinned person becoming light-skinned with success, or switching gender from pre-success female to post-success male, thus further motivating ethical intervention prompting with DebiasPI.

Structured Learning of Compositional Sequential Interventions

We consider sequential treatment regimes where each unit is exposed to combinations of interventions over time. When interventions are described by qualitative labels, such as ``close schools for a month due to a pandemic'' or ``promote this podcast to this user during this week'', it is unclear which appropriate structural assumptions allow us to generalize behavioral predictions to previously unseen combinatorial sequences. Standard black-box approaches mapping sequences of categorical variables to outputs are applicable, but they rely on poorly understood assumptions on how reliable generalization can be obtained, and may underperform under sparse sequences, temporal variability, and large action spaces. To approach that, we pose an explicit model for \emph{composition}, that is, how the effect of sequential interventions can be isolated into modules, clarifying which data conditions allow for the identification of their combined effect at different units and time steps. We show the identification properties of our compositional model, inspired by advances in causal matrix factorization methods but focusing on predictive models for novel compositions of interventions instead of matrix completion tasks and causal effect estimation. We compare our approach to flexible but generic black-box models to illustrate how structure aids prediction in sparse data conditions.