Modeling Users' Contextualized Page-wise Feedback for Click-Through Rate Prediction in E-commerce Search

Modeling user's historical feedback is essential for Click-Through Rate Prediction in personalized search and recommendation. Existing methods usually only model users' positive feedback information such as click sequences which neglects the context information of the feedback. In this paper, we propose a new perspective for context-aware users' behavior modeling by including the whole page-wisely exposed products and the corresponding feedback as contextualized page-wise feedback sequence. The intra-page context information and inter-page interest evolution can be captured to learn more specific user preference. We design a novel neural ranking model RACP(i.e., Recurrent Attention over Contextualized Page sequence), which utilizes page-context aware attention to model the intra-page context. A recurrent attention process is used to model the cross-page interest convergence evolution as denoising the interest in the previous pages. Experiments on public and real-world industrial datasets verify our model's effectiveness.

Hierarchically Modeling Micro and Macro Behaviors via Multi-Task Learning for Conversion Rate Prediction

Conversion Rate (\emph{CVR}) prediction in modern industrial e-commerce platforms is becoming increasingly important, which directly contributes to the final revenue. In order to address the well-known sample selection bias (\emph{SSB}) and data sparsity (\emph{DS}) issues encountered during CVR modeling, the abundant labeled macro behaviors ($i.e.$, user's interactions with items) are used. Nonetheless, we observe that several purchase-related micro behaviors ($i.e.$, user's interactions with specific components on the item detail page) can supplement fine-grained cues for \emph{CVR} prediction. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel \emph{CVR} prediction method by Hierarchically Modeling both Micro and Macro behaviors ($HM^3$). Specifically, we first construct a complete user sequential behavior graph to hierarchically represent micro behaviors and macro behaviors as one-hop and two-hop post-click nodes. Then, we embody $HM^3$ as a multi-head deep neural network, which predicts six probability variables corresponding to explicit sub-paths in the graph. They are further combined into the prediction targets of four auxiliary tasks as well as the final $CVR$ according to the conditional probability rule defined on the graph. By employing multi-task learning and leveraging the abundant supervisory labels from micro and macro behaviors, $HM^3$ can be trained end-to-end and address the \emph{SSB} and \emph{DS} issues. Extensive experiments on both offline and online settings demonstrate the superiority of the proposed $HM^3$ over representative state-of-the-art methods.

A Causal Perspective to Unbiased Conversion Rate Estimation on Data Missing Not at Random

In modern e-commerce and advertising recommender systems, ongoing research works attempt to optimize conversion rate (CVR) estimation, and increase the gross merchandise volume. Even though the state-of-the-art CVR estimators adopt deep learning methods, their model performances are still subject to sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. Conversion labels of exposed items in training dataset are typically missing not at random due to selection bias. Empirically, data sparsity issue causes the performance degradation of model with large parameter space. In this paper, we proposed two causal estimators combined with multi-task learning, and aim to solve sample selection bias (SSB) and data sparsity (DS) issues in conversion rate estimation. The proposed estimators adjust for the MNAR mechanism as if they are trained on a "do dataset" where users are forced to click on all exposed items. We evaluate the causal estimators with billion data samples. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed CVR estimators outperform other state-of-the-art CVR estimators. In addition, empirical study shows that our methods are cost-effective with large scale dataset.

Conversion Rate Prediction via Post-Click Behaviour Modeling

Effective and efficient recommendation is crucial for modern e-commerce platforms. It consists of two indispensable components named Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction, where the latter is an essential factor contributing to the final purchasing volume. Existing methods specifically predict CVR using the clicked and purchased samples, which has limited performance affected by the well-known sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. To address these issues, we propose a novel deep CVR prediction method by considering the post-click behaviors. After grouping deterministic actions together, we construct a novel sequential path, which elaborately depicts the post-click behaviors of users. Based on the path, we define the CVR and several related probabilities including CTR, etc., and devise a deep neural network with multiple targets involved accordingly. It takes advantage of the abundant samples with deterministic labels derived from the post-click actions, leading to a significant improvement of CVR prediction. Extensive experiments on both offline and online settings demonstrate its superiority over representative state-of-the-art methods.