Deficiency of Large Language Models in Finance: An Empirical Examination of Hallucination

The hallucination issue is recognized as a fundamental deficiency of large language models (LLMs), especially when applied to fields such as finance, education, and law. Despite the growing concerns, there has been a lack of empirical investigation. In this paper, we provide an empirical examination of LLMs' hallucination behaviors in financial tasks. First, we empirically investigate LLM model's ability of explaining financial concepts and terminologies. Second, we assess LLM models' capacity of querying historical stock prices. Third, to alleviate the hallucination issue, we evaluate the efficacy of four practical methods, including few-shot learning, Decoding by Contrasting Layers (DoLa), the Retrieval Augmentation Generation (RAG) method and the prompt-based tool learning method for a function to generate a query command. Finally, our major finding is that off-the-shelf LLMs experience serious hallucination behaviors in financial tasks. Therefore, there is an urgent need to call for research efforts in mitigating LLMs' hallucination.

Enhancing Financial Sentiment Analysis via Retrieval Augmented Large Language Models

Financial sentiment analysis is critical for valuation and investment decision-making. Traditional NLP models, however, are limited by their parameter size and the scope of their training datasets, which hampers their generalization capabilities and effectiveness in this field. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) pre-trained on extensive corpora have demonstrated superior performance across various NLP tasks due to their commendable zero-shot abilities. Yet, directly applying LLMs to financial sentiment analysis presents challenges: The discrepancy between the pre-training objective of LLMs and predicting the sentiment label can compromise their predictive performance. Furthermore, the succinct nature of financial news, often devoid of sufficient context, can significantly diminish the reliability of LLMs' sentiment analysis. To address these challenges, we introduce a retrieval-augmented LLMs framework for financial sentiment analysis. This framework includes an instruction-tuned LLMs module, which ensures LLMs behave as predictors of sentiment labels, and a retrieval-augmentation module which retrieves additional context from reliable external sources. Benchmarked against traditional models and LLMs like ChatGPT and LLaMA, our approach achieves 15\% to 48\% performance gain in accuracy and F1 score.

FinGPT: Democratizing Internet-scale Data for Financial Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in understanding and generating human-like texts, which may potentially revolutionize the finance industry. However, existing LLMs often fall short in the financial field, which is mainly attributed to the disparities between general text data and financial text data. Unfortunately, there is only a limited number of financial text datasets available (quite small size), and BloombergGPT, the first financial LLM (FinLLM), is close-sourced (only the training logs were released). In light of this, we aim to democratize Internet-scale financial data for LLMs, which is an open challenge due to diverse data sources, low signal-to-noise ratio, and high time-validity. To address the challenges, we introduce an open-sourced and data-centric framework, \textit{Financial Generative Pre-trained Transformer (FinGPT)}, that automates the collection and curation of real-time financial data from >34 diverse sources on the Internet, providing researchers and practitioners with accessible and transparent resources to develop their FinLLMs. Additionally, we propose a simple yet effective strategy for fine-tuning FinLLM using the inherent feedback from the market, dubbed Reinforcement Learning with Stock Prices (RLSP). We also adopt the Low-rank Adaptation (LoRA, QLoRA) method that enables users to customize their own FinLLMs from open-source general-purpose LLMs at a low cost. Finally, we showcase several FinGPT applications, including robo-advisor, sentiment analysis for algorithmic trading, and low-code development. FinGPT aims to democratize FinLLMs, stimulate innovation, and unlock new opportunities in open finance. The codes are available at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinGPT and https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinNLP

Instruct-FinGPT: Financial Sentiment Analysis by Instruction Tuning of General-Purpose Large Language Models

Sentiment analysis is a vital tool for uncovering insights from financial articles, news, and social media, shaping our understanding of market movements. Despite the impressive capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in financial natural language processing (NLP), they still struggle with accurately interpreting numerical values and grasping financial context, limiting their effectiveness in predicting financial sentiment. In this paper, we introduce a simple yet effective instruction tuning approach to address these issues. By transforming a small portion of supervised financial sentiment analysis data into instruction data and fine-tuning a general-purpose LLM with this method, we achieve remarkable advancements in financial sentiment analysis. In the experiment, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art supervised sentiment analysis models, as well as widely used LLMs like ChatGPT and LLaMAs, particularly in scenarios where numerical understanding and contextual comprehension are vital.

FinGPT: Open-Source Financial Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown the potential of revolutionizing natural language processing tasks in diverse domains, sparking great interest in finance. Accessing high-quality financial data is the first challenge for financial LLMs (FinLLMs). While proprietary models like BloombergGPT have taken advantage of their unique data accumulation, such privileged access calls for an open-source alternative to democratize Internet-scale financial data. In this paper, we present an open-source large language model, FinGPT, for the finance sector. Unlike proprietary models, FinGPT takes a data-centric approach, providing researchers and practitioners with accessible and transparent resources to develop their FinLLMs. We highlight the importance of an automatic data curation pipeline and the lightweight low-rank adaptation technique in building FinGPT. Furthermore, we showcase several potential applications as stepping stones for users, such as robo-advising, algorithmic trading, and low-code development. Through collaborative efforts within the open-source AI4Finance community, FinGPT aims to stimulate innovation, democratize FinLLMs, and unlock new opportunities in open finance. Two associated code repos are \url{https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinGPT} and \url{https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinNLP}

Dynamic Datasets and Market Environments for Financial Reinforcement Learning

The financial market is a particularly challenging playground for deep reinforcement learning due to its unique feature of dynamic datasets. Building high-quality market environments for training financial reinforcement learning (FinRL) agents is difficult due to major factors such as the low signal-to-noise ratio of financial data, survivorship bias of historical data, and model overfitting. In this paper, we present FinRL-Meta, a data-centric and openly accessible library that processes dynamic datasets from real-world markets into gym-style market environments and has been actively maintained by the AI4Finance community. First, following a DataOps paradigm, we provide hundreds of market environments through an automatic data curation pipeline. Second, we provide homegrown examples and reproduce popular research papers as stepping stones for users to design new trading strategies. We also deploy the library on cloud platforms so that users can visualize their own results and assess the relative performance via community-wise competitions. Third, we provide dozens of Jupyter/Python demos organized into a curriculum and a documentation website to serve the rapidly growing community. The open-source codes for the data curation pipeline are available at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRL-Meta

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Traffic Light Control in Intelligent Transportation Systems

Smart traffic lights in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) are envisioned to greatly increase traffic efficiency and reduce congestion. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is a promising approach to adaptively control traffic lights based on the real-time traffic situation in a road network. However, conventional methods may suffer from poor scalability. In this paper, we investigate deep reinforcement learning to control traffic lights, and both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments show that the intelligent behavior ``greenwave" (i.e., a vehicle will see a progressive cascade of green lights, and not have to brake at any intersection) emerges naturally a grid road network, which is proved to be the optimal policy in an avenue with multiple cross streets. As a first step, we use two DRL algorithms for the traffic light control problems in two scenarios. In a single road intersection, we verify that the deep Q-network (DQN) algorithm delivers a thresholding policy; and in a grid road network, we adopt the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm. Secondly, numerical experiments show that the DQN algorithm delivers the optimal control, and the DDPG algorithm with passive observations has the capability to produce on its own a high-level intelligent behavior in a grid road network, namely, the ``greenwave" policy emerges. We also verify the ``greenwave" patterns in a $5 \times 10$ grid road network. Thirdly, the ``greenwave" patterns demonstrate that DRL algorithms produce favorable solutions since the ``greenwave" policy shown in experiment results is proved to be optimal in a specified traffic model (an avenue with multiple cross streets). The delivered policies both in a single road intersection and a grid road network demonstrate the scalability of DRL algorithms.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cryptocurrency Trading: Practical Approach to Address Backtest Overfitting

Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher Sharpe ratio than that of more over-fitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.

FinRL-Meta: A Universe of Near-Real Market Environments for Data-Driven Deep Reinforcement Learning in Quantitative Finance

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown huge potentials in building financial market simulators recently. However, due to the highly complex and dynamic nature of real-world markets, raw historical financial data often involve large noise and may not reflect the future of markets, degrading the fidelity of DRL-based market simulators. Moreover, the accuracy of DRL-based market simulators heavily relies on numerous and diverse DRL agents, which increases demand for a universe of market environments and imposes a challenge on simulation speed. In this paper, we present a FinRL-Meta framework that builds a universe of market environments for data-driven financial reinforcement learning. First, FinRL-Meta separates financial data processing from the design pipeline of DRL-based strategy and provides open-source data engineering tools for financial big data. Second, FinRL-Meta provides hundreds of market environments for various trading tasks. Third, FinRL-Meta enables multiprocessing simulation and training by exploiting thousands of GPU cores. Our codes are available online at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRL-Meta.

ElegantRL-Podracer: Scalable and Elastic Library for Cloud-Native Deep Reinforcement Learning

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has revolutionized learning and actuation in applications such as game playing and robotic control. The cost of data collection, i.e., generating transitions from agent-environment interactions, remains a major challenge for wider DRL adoption in complex real-world problems. Following a cloud-native paradigm to train DRL agents on a GPU cloud platform is a promising solution. In this paper, we present a scalable and elastic library ElegantRL-podracer for cloud-native deep reinforcement learning, which efficiently supports millions of GPU cores to carry out massively parallel training at multiple levels. At a high-level, ElegantRL-podracer employs a tournament-based ensemble scheme to orchestrate the training process on hundreds or even thousands of GPUs, scheduling the interactions between a leaderboard and a training pool with hundreds of pods. At a low-level, each pod simulates agent-environment interactions in parallel by fully utilizing nearly 7,000 GPU CUDA cores in a single GPU. Our ElegantRL-podracer library features high scalability, elasticity and accessibility by following the development principles of containerization, microservices and MLOps. Using an NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD cloud, we conduct extensive experiments on various tasks in locomotion and stock trading and show that ElegantRL-podracer substantially outperforms RLlib. Our codes are available on GitHub.