A Theoretical Interpretation of In-Context Learning via Probabilistic Modeling

In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.

Exposure Bias Can Alleviate Itself via Directional and Frequency Rectification in Flow Matching

Flow Matching (FM) has achieved remarkable generative performance, yet it suffers from exposure bias due to discrepancies between training and inference. Existing mitigation strategies typically rely on static constraints or external heuristics. In this work, we propose that exposure bias itself inherently contains dynamic signals that can guide its own rectification. To leverage this, we introduce DEFAR (DirEctional-Frequency Adaptive Rectification). This framework simulates the single-step inference process during training to identify exposure bias. It utilizes directional and frequency-adaptive feedback signals from the bias itself to enhance the model's bias tolerance. It consists of two key components: (1) Anti-Drift Rectification (ADR). ADR treats inference-time drift as a signal to learn the direction to steer deviated states back toward the target. ADR endows the model with intrinsic active self-rectification capabilities; (2) Frequency Compensation (FC). Empirically, we observe that accumulated bias often stems from a lack of low-frequency components in high-noise stages, and exposure bias carries the missing frequency. FC leverages the bias itself as a self-feedback weighting factor to reinforce the missing frequency components. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CelebA-64, and ImageNet-256/512 show that DEFAR outperforms prior baselines and further demonstrates favorable scalability, compatibility, and inference robustness.

OSDTW: Optimal Shared Depth and Task Weighting for Long-Tailed Recognition

Long-tailed recognition suffers from a persistent head--tail trade-off: improving tail performance often degrades head accuracy and can increase training instability. Despite strong empirical results from re-weighting, decoupled training, and multi-expert methods, key design choices about representation sharing between head and tail classes and supervision weighting across class groups remain largely heuristic. In this work, we propose OSDTW, a principled task-decomposition framework that partitions the original single-label recognition problem into a head task and a tail task, implemented with a shared encoder and task-specific decoders. To handle the mutual exclusivity and statistical dependence between the two label groups, we introduce a factorized model and show that the resulting Kullback--Leibler divergence-based generalization error can be written as the sum of task-wise terms up to an additive constant, yielding a well-defined task-wise objective. We further develop a three-stage training pipeline: independent task training to estimate task-wise optima and the Fisher information matrix, weighted joint training to learn a shared encoder, and branch assembly to construct the final decoupled model. Under a block-diagonal Fisher approximation, we derive a computable second-order expansion of the expected generalization error, decomposing it into encoder variance, encoder bias, and decoder variance. This bias--variance decomposition provides a computable proxy to select the shared depth and task weights, enabling efficient hyper-parameter search. Experiments on standard long-tailed benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach over strong baselines.

Beyond the Golden Data: Resolving the Motion-Vision Quality Dilemma via Timestep Selective Training

Recent advances in video generation models have achieved impressive results. However, these models heavily rely on the use of high-quality data that combines both high visual quality and high motion quality. In this paper, we identify a key challenge in video data curation: the Motion-Vision Quality Dilemma. We discovered that visual quality and motion intensity inherently exhibit a negative correlation, making it hard to obtain golden data that excels in both aspects. To address this challenge, we first examine the hierarchical learning dynamics of video diffusion models and conduct gradient-based analysis on quality-degraded samples. We discover that quality-imbalanced data can produce gradients similar to golden data at appropriate timesteps. Based on this, we introduce the novel concept of Timestep selection in Training Process. We propose Timestep-aware Quality Decoupling (TQD), which modifies the data sampling distribution to better match the model's learning process. For certain types of data, the sampling distribution is skewed toward higher timesteps for motion-rich data, while high visual quality data is more likely to be sampled during lower timesteps. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that TQD enables training exclusively on separated imbalanced data to achieve performance surpassing conventional training with better data, challenging the necessity of perfect data in video generation. Moreover, our method also boosts model performance when trained on high-quality data, showcasing its effectiveness across different data scenarios.

Unified Optimization of Source Weights and Transfer Quantities in Multi-Source Transfer Learning: An Asymptotic Framework

Transfer learning plays a vital role in improving model performance in data-scarce scenarios. However, naive uniform transfer from multiple source tasks may result in negative transfer, highlighting the need to properly balance the contributions of heterogeneous sources. Moreover, existing transfer learning methods typically focus on optimizing either the source weights or the amount of transferred samples, while largely neglecting the joint consideration of the other. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework, Unified Optimization of Weights and Quantities (UOWQ), which formulates multi-source transfer learning as a parameter estimation problem grounded in an asymptotic analysis of a Kullback-Leibler divergence-based generalization error measure. The proposed framework jointly determines the optimal source weights and optimal transfer quantities for each source task. Firstly, we prove that using all available source samples is always optimal once the weights are properly adjusted, and we provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon. Moreover, to determine the optimal transfer weights, our analysis yields closed-form solutions in the single-source setting and develops a convex optimization-based numerical procedure for the multi-source case. Building on the theoretical results, we further propose practical algorithms for both multi-source transfer learning and multi-task learning settings. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks, including DomainNet and Office-Home, demonstrate that UOWQ consistently outperforms strong baselines. The results validate both the theoretical predictions and the practical effectiveness of our framework.

FilmWeaver: Weaving Consistent Multi-Shot Videos with Cache-Guided Autoregressive Diffusion

Current video generation models perform well at single-shot synthesis but struggle with multi-shot videos, facing critical challenges in maintaining character and background consistency across shots and flexibly generating videos of arbitrary length and shot count. To address these limitations, we introduce \textbf{FilmWeaver}, a novel framework designed to generate consistent, multi-shot videos of arbitrary length. First, it employs an autoregressive diffusion paradigm to achieve arbitrary-length video generation. To address the challenge of consistency, our key insight is to decouple the problem into inter-shot consistency and intra-shot coherence. We achieve this through a dual-level cache mechanism: a shot memory caches keyframes from preceding shots to maintain character and scene identity, while a temporal memory retains a history of frames from the current shot to ensure smooth, continuous motion. The proposed framework allows for flexible, multi-round user interaction to create multi-shot videos. Furthermore, due to this decoupled design, our method demonstrates high versatility by supporting downstream tasks such as multi-concept injection and video extension. To facilitate the training of our consistency-aware method, we also developed a comprehensive pipeline to construct a high-quality multi-shot video dataset. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method surpasses existing approaches on metrics for both consistency and aesthetic quality, opening up new possibilities for creating more consistent, controllable, and narrative-driven video content. Project Page: https://filmweaver.github.io

FinZero: Launching Multi-modal Financial Time Series Forecast with Large Reasoning Model

Financial time series forecasting is both highly significant and challenging. Previous approaches typically standardized time series data before feeding it into forecasting models, but this encoding process inherently leads to a loss of important information. Moreover, past time series models generally require fixed numbers of variables or lookback window lengths, which further limits the scalability of time series forecasting. Besides, the interpretability and the uncertainty in forecasting remain areas requiring further research, as these factors directly impact the reliability and practical value of predictions. To address these issues, we first construct a diverse financial image-text dataset (FVLDB) and develop the Uncertainty-adjusted Group Relative Policy Optimization (UARPO) method to enable the model not only output predictions but also analyze the uncertainty of those predictions. We then proposed FinZero, a multimodal pre-trained model finetuned by UARPO to perform reasoning, prediction, and analytical understanding on the FVLDB financial time series. Extensive experiments validate that FinZero exhibits strong adaptability and scalability. After fine-tuning with UARPO, FinZero achieves an approximate 13.48\% improvement in prediction accuracy over GPT-4o in the high-confidence group, demonstrating the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning in multimodal large model, including in financial time series forecasting tasks.

CanonSwap: High-Fidelity and Consistent Video Face Swapping via Canonical Space Modulation

Video face swapping aims to address two primary challenges: effectively transferring the source identity to the target video and accurately preserving the dynamic attributes of the target face, such as head poses, facial expressions, lip-sync, \etc. Existing methods mainly focus on achieving high-quality identity transfer but often fall short in maintaining the dynamic attributes of the target face, leading to inconsistent results. We attribute this issue to the inherent coupling of facial appearance and motion in videos. To address this, we propose CanonSwap, a novel video face-swapping framework that decouples motion information from appearance information. Specifically, CanonSwap first eliminates motion-related information, enabling identity modification within a unified canonical space. Subsequently, the swapped feature is reintegrated into the original video space, ensuring the preservation of the target face's dynamic attributes. To further achieve precise identity transfer with minimal artifacts and enhanced realism, we design a Partial Identity Modulation module that adaptively integrates source identity features using a spatial mask to restrict modifications to facial regions. Additionally, we introduce several fine-grained synchronization metrics to comprehensively evaluate the performance of video face swapping methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of visual quality, temporal consistency, and identity preservation. Our project page are publicly available at https://luoxyhappy.github.io/CanonSwap/.

Assessing Uncertainty in Stock Returns: A Gaussian Mixture Distribution-Based Method

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture distribution to capture the complex, time-varying nature of asset return distributions in the Chinese stock market. By incorporating the Gaussian mixture distribution, our approach effectively characterizes short-term fluctuations and non-traditional features of stock returns, such as skewness and heavy tails, that are often overlooked by traditional models. Compared to GARCH models and their variants, our method demonstrates superior performance in volatility estimation, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility. It provides more accurate volatility forecasts and offers unique risk insights for different assets, thereby deepening the understanding of return uncertainty. Additionally, we propose a novel use of Code embedding which utilizes a bag-of-words approach to train hidden representations of stock codes and transforms the uncertainty attributes of stocks into high-dimensional vectors. These vectors are subsequently reduced to two dimensions, allowing the observation of similarity among different stocks. This visualization facilitates the identification of asset clusters with similar risk profiles, offering valuable insights for portfolio management and risk mitigation. Since we predict the uncertainty of returns by estimating their latent distribution, it is challenging to evaluate the return distribution when the true distribution is unobservable. However, we can measure it through the CRPS to assess how well the predicted distribution matches the true returns, and through MSE and QLIKE metrics to evaluate the error between the volatility level of the predicted distribution and proxy measures of true volatility.

FinTSBridge: A New Evaluation Suite for Real-world Financial Prediction with Advanced Time Series Models

Despite the growing attention to time series forecasting in recent years, many studies have proposed various solutions to address the challenges encountered in time series prediction, aiming to improve forecasting performance. However, effectively applying these time series forecasting models to the field of financial asset pricing remains a challenging issue. There is still a need for a bridge to connect cutting-edge time series forecasting models with financial asset pricing. To bridge this gap, we have undertaken the following efforts: 1) We constructed three datasets from the financial domain; 2) We selected over ten time series forecasting models from recent studies and validated their performance in financial time series; 3) We developed new metrics, msIC and msIR, in addition to MSE and MAE, to showcase the time series correlation captured by the models; 4) We designed financial-specific tasks for these three datasets and assessed the practical performance and application potential of these forecasting models in important financial problems. We hope the developed new evaluation suite, FinTSBridge, can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and robustness of advanced forecasting models in finanical domains.